The Process of
Logically Evaluating
Theories of Evolution
To get a quick overview, I suggest reading
A CONDENSED SUMMARY OF THIS PAGE.
This paper does not evaluate theories of evolution
or creation.
Instead, it examines basic principles of logic, and develops guidelines
for how origins theories should (and should not) be compared and evaluated.
(the focus is on evaluating neo-Darwinian theories of biological evolution)
6. Should science be logical?
Should we question the consensus?
7. Origins Education in Public Schools
1. Logical Evaluation
Logical
Comparisons
During our scientific evaluations, we should use basic
principles of logic. One important principle, logical
comparison, is illustrated (in a question borrowed from a
prominent philosopher) by asking, "Is a theory proposing that John
is an Olympic Weightlifter (OW)
supported
by an
observation
that John
can lift a hat and place it on his head?" Yes, the OW theory predicts
that John can lift the hat, and he does. But plausible alternative
theories
— like "John is a 98-pound weakling" or "John is medium
strong but not olympic strong" — are also compatible with this
result, so the observation offers little support for OW even though it is
compatible with
OW. When we see John lift a hat, the appropriate response is "So
what?" To justify a response of "Wow!", the evidence
must be more relevant (in a logical comparison of OW with competitive theories)
and more impressive. For example, if we saw John lift an extremely
heavy weight, close to the world record, this would provide strong evidence
for
the plausibility of OW, since this observation would be much less compatible
with the alternative theories.
In this illustration, three theories
— proposing that John is a weakling, is medium strong, or olympic strong
— all agree that John can lift the hat. Therefore, evidence about hat-lifting
does not provide support for any of these theories. But there is disagreement
about his ability to lift a near-record weight, so observing this lift would
support the Olympic Weightlifter theory. And a dismal failure in this
lift, without even coming close, would provide evidence against the OW theory.
In this situation, the principle of logical comparison says, "To distinguish
between these competitive theories, we must focus on their differences
(they disagree about John's ability to lift the near-record weight), not
their similarities (they all agree that John can lift the hat)."
In real life, however, this basic principle
of logic is often ignored when origins theories are evaluated. How?
Instead of using logical comparisons, scientists and educators often claim
support for evolution because "it can lift hats" instead of focusing
their attention on questions that are more challenging (for evolution) and
more useful (for evaluation). A logical framework for comparing origins
theories is outlined in Section 4. But we cannot logically compare theories
unless the components of each theory are precisely defined. Therefore,
we'll examine precise definitions (below and
in Sections 2 and 3) before returning to logical comparisons
in Section 4.
Precise Definitions
Are definitions important? Imagine that "car"
is a word with many meanings, and "car" can mean just the car's
body, or its engine, drive train, gas tank, hood ornament, or seat cover,
or the whole car with everything included. Will you say "yes"
when someone puts his hand on the seat cover of your new car and says, "Will
you sell me this car for $1000?" And what should you do if a
salesman points to a shiny new Porsche and says, "Do you want to buy
this car for $5000?" Of course, you would sell your seat cover
for $1000, and you would buy the Porsche for $5000. But unless you
get a precise definition of what "car" means in each case, in
writing, you might lose your car and $4000, and end up with only a shiny
new hood ornament.
Yes, precise definitions are important in this imaginary scenario, and in
real life.
In science and education, we can
improve the accuracy of our thinking and communication by using two important
words — evolution and creation — with precision and consistency. Since
each of these words can have many meanings, confusion is possible. But
if we decide that confusion is undesirable, that misunderstanding should be
avoided, we can aim for precise definitions that will minimize the possibilities
for confusion and misunderstanding. This worthy goal, the pursuit of
conceptual clarity, is the focus of Sections 2 and 3: The Many Meanings of
Evolution, and The Many Meanings of Creation.
In general, evolution is "a process of change" that occurs in any context. Thus, we can refer to the evolution in societal cultures and personal attitudes, geological formations and weather systems, galaxies and species.
In an effort to explain how the first living cell could be produced by undirected natural process, theories of chemical evolution are proposed.
In biology, the basic definition of
evolution (E)
is any change (small or large) in the gene pool of a population. But
biological E can have many meanings:
microevolution
(micro-E) is the changes in a population within
a species.
macroevolution
(macro-E) occurs when changes produce a new species;
claims for macro-E range from minor macro-E (which
occurs, for example, when two groups within a species become isolated from
each other, then evolve independently until they can no longer interbreed,
thus forming two species that are very similar) to major
macro-E (when a new species is very different).
common descent
is a theory of E proposing that all current organisms are descendants of a
single organism.
Total Macro-E
(*) is a claim that all biodiversity and biocomplexity (in all organisms throughout
the history of life) was produced by the cumulative effects of natural micro-E
and macro-E. { * In an effort to clarify the logical principles that
are examined in this page, I've invented three terms: Total Macro-E and (below)
basic fossil-E and detailed fossil-E. }
fossil evolution:
a theory of basic fossil-E claims that the fossil
record (consisting of data about fossils situated in the context of geological
formations and geography) indicates a fossil progression (from simple to complex,
with branching of species,...) spanning billions of years on an old earth;
detailed fossil-E claims that all details of
the fossil record are consistent with neo-Darwinian evolution.
mechanistic theories of evolution
propose specific natural causes of evolution. In neo-Darwinian
theories, Darwin's ideas are modified by and combined with ideas developed
since his time, from a wide range of fields that include genetics, mathematical
population analysis, and molecular biology. Modern neo-Darwinism is
a broad umbrella that encompasses different variations (such as gradualism
and punctuated equilibrium) that agree on many concepts but disagree about
others. Basic neo-Darwinian theories of evolution propose mechanisms
for: (1) producing genetic variation in
a population through introducing new genetic material (by mutation, duplication
followed by mutation, or gene inflow) and shuffling old material (by gene
crossovers and sexual reproduction); (2) expressing
genetic variation in the characteristics (physiology, structure, behavior,...)
of individuals; (3) causing changes in gene frequencies
in a population through natural selection (by differential rates of survival
and reproduction for individuals or groups), random genetic drift (especially
in small subpopulations), and gene inflow or outflow; (4) producing
new species by reproductive isolation (due to geography, behavior,
physiology,...). / Evolutionary scenarios for the history
of life can involve many factors, including relationships among species (competition
and mutualism,...), climate shifts and continental drifts, linked genes and
developmental regulators, changes in the functions of enzymes and organs,
and more.
Scientists often think about biological evolution, in one or more of the ways described above, without consciously thinking about the potential worldview implications (philosophical, religious, ethical, social,...) of evolution.
In Section 4, after looking at alternative
theories in Section 3, we'll examine four types of evolution (as defined above)
that can be components in an origins theory: 1) small-scale E (micro-E
and minor macro-E); 2) an old earth with a basic fossil-E progression;
3) common descent; 4) Total Macro-E by natural mechanisms.
3. The Many Meanings
of Creation
Theistic Creation
According to the most popular form of young-earth
creation (yeC) theory, the universe and
the earth with its inhabitants were miraculously created during a 144-hour
period less than 10,000 years ago. Later, most of the earth's geology
and fossil record were formed in a flood that covered the entire earth.
According to old-earth creation (oeC),
God's creative activity was spread over billions of years. At various
times during this period, God used miraculous-appearing theistic action to
create new types of organisms. There are two types of old-earth creation:
oeCindependent proposes independent
creations "from scratch" (so it would not necessarily have
any relationships with existing species) similar to the independent creations
in yeC; oeCmacromutation proposes
creation by macromutation, with extensive modification
(by changing, adding, or deleting) of the genetic material for some members
(or all members) of an existing species. Both old-earth theories, oeCindependent
and oeCmacromutation, propose a natural history involving a combination of
natural-appearing evolution and miraculous-appearing creation.
theistic evolution
(TE), also called evolutionary
creation, considers natural evolution to be God's method of creation,
with the universe designed so complex life would naturally evolve. /
The E in TE can refer to Total Evolution — astronomical
E (to form galaxies, solar systems,...) and chemical
E (to form the first life) and biological E
(for the development of life) — or only the biological E that is the focus
in this page.
What is my position? Based on a logical evaluation of evidence, I think that oeCmacromutation is the most plausible explanation for the history of life (for the biocomplexity and biodiversity we observe in the past and present), and that intelligent design is the most credible scientific theory. But the main purpose of this paper is to show why (and how) all theories, not just those I support, should be precisely defined and logically compared.
Scientific Similarities and Differences
Although their interpretations of history differ, theistic
evolution and nontheistic evolution (deistic, agnostic, atheistic, pantheistic,...)
propose the same scientific explanations for biological history, so in scientific
evaluations "theistic E = nontheistic
E" and I'll denote both by E.
{ But scientific evidence for a design of the universe
is evidence favoring all theistic theories, including theistic E, over scientifically
similar nontheistic theories. }
The scientific similarities and differences
between creation theories (yeC, oeCindependent, oeCmacromutation) and design
theories — when we compare them with each other and with evolution — are examined
in Section 4.
Intelligent
Design
A design theory is not a creation theory.
What is a theory of design? If you receive a radio signal — 2, 3, 5,
7, 11, 13, 17,... — and you conclude that "probably this string of prime
numbers was the result of design, since it's very unlikely that it was produced
by a natural process that wasn't intelligently directed," you are proposing
a theory of intelligent design.
To explain the origin of a feature (an
object, organism, system, situation,...) the two possibilities are non-design
(with production by undirected natural process)
and design (with production by design-directed
action that converts a "design idea" into reality, into
a designed feature we can observe). Because a feature was produced by
either design or non-design, we can use eliminative logic: if we conclude
that non-design is highly improbable, then design is highly probable.
Thus, evidence against non-design is evidence for design. And evidence
for non-design (for the sufficiency of undirected natural process in producing
a particular feature) is evidence against a design of that feature.
Can design be proved?
No. A design theory does not claim there is proof that non-design is impossible,
it only claims that, based on scientific evidence, design seems more probable.
This type of probability-based conclusion is consistent with the logic of science
in which proof is always impossible, even though scientists can develop
a logically justified confidence in the truth or falsity of a theory.
In science, a high level of confidence (not proof) is the goal of scientists
when they evaluate a theory to determine whether it is worthy of acceptance.
In several areas —
including the origins of our universe, the first life, and complex life (*)
— scientific analysis shows that design deserves to be accepted, not as the
only possible explanation, but as a potential explanation that is highly plausible
and is worthy of serious consideration and further development.
* Notice the two kinds of design theories,
claiming that either: (1) design-directed action occurred at
the beginning of history (to produce a universe with properties of
nature that are "just right" for a wide variety of life-permitting
phenomena, ranging from nuclear fusion and star formation to the chemistry of
enzymes and DNA), or (2) design-directed action occurred during
history (as in the origins of life or complex life). /
In the rest of this paper, design will refer to
the second type of theory, claiming that "there is scientific evidence
for design-directed action during the history of nature."
In many areas of life — for example,
when a crime detective infers that "this death occurred by murder, not
natural causes" — a conclusion that "design-directed action did occur"
can be logically justified. How? If we observe strong signs
of design (as in a sequence of prime numbers, or in the circumstantial
evidence for a murder) we can infer that design-directed action occurred, even
if the agent and action were not observed. This logic is consistent with
the methods of modern scientists, who often infer the existence of an unobservable
cause (an electron, idea,...) from the observable
effects it produces.
Since claims for design can be logically
evaluated using the methods of science, why are there any doubts about whether
a design theory can be scientific? When carefully examined, methodological
arguments for excluding design from science seem weak. For most opponents
of design, the main concerns are metaphysical, and a common claim is that a
design theory is equivalent to a creation theory. But they are not the
same, as explained below:
In any area (radioastronomy,
homicide, origins,...) an inquiry about design is a two-stage process:
first ask "Was there design-directed action?", and then investigate
the details. A basic design theory claims
that "design-directed action did occur" (the first stage) but does
not try to explain the details (how, when, why, who,...) of design-and-production.
Of course, we should evaluate a design theory based on what it does claim (that
design occurred) instead of what it does not claim (that it can explain
the details). { But arguments for a design theory can be based on assumptions
about details — for example, the amount of time available for evolution, or
whether a scenario for design-action includes common descent — as explained
later. }
In origins, a design theory is not a creation
theory. A design theory can be supplemented with details (about the designer's
identity and actions, re: how, when, why,...) to form a variety of theories
about supernatural creation or (as in a theory
proposing that evolution on earth was intelligently designed and directed by
space aliens who evolved before us) natural non-creation.
A design theory — which does not propose divine action, but does acknowledge
it as a possibility — does not try to distinguish between creation and non-creation.
Instead, a design theory just claims that "design-directed action did occur."
Sections 2 and 3 have described a wide
range of theories about evolution, creation, and design. Section 4 will
outline a framework for evaluating these theories, using logical principles
from Section 1.
4. Logical Comparisons
in Scientific Evaluation
During a logical comparison of precisely defined theories,
we find that some common "evidence for biological evolution" is
not useful for evaluation, since it does not help us distinguish between different
origins theories. For example, evidence for micro-E (such as changes
in the frequency of drug-resistant bacteria or large finch beaks) and minor
macro-E (in the evolution of species that do not interbreed but are otherwise
similar) will help us understand evolution, but it is not useful for theory
evaluation because all modern theories agree that this type of evolution has
occurred in the past and does occur now.
You can see this
agreement about "micro-E and minor macro-E" in the first row (yes,
yes, yes, yes, yes) of the table below, which (in the white-shaded central
region) shows four E-components of five modern theories that are described
in Sections 2 and 3: For each
component (for each aspect of E-theory), does a theory say "YES, this
did occur" or "NO, this did not occur"? { For sharper
visual contrast, so you can more easily see the pattern of similarities and
differences when comparing theories, each "no" is symbolized by
"-". }
theory components (for each type of E, does a theory say yes or no?) |
totally natural evolution |
intelligent design |
old-earth creation by macromutation |
old-earth independent creation |
young-earth independent creation |
creation theories of 1800 |
micro-E and minor macro-E | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | - |
old earth with basic fossil-E | yes |
? | yes |
yes |
- |
- |
common descent |
yes
|
? | yes | - | - | - |
natural Total Macro-E | yes | - | - | - | - | - |
claims that "God did it" | ? | ? | yes | yes | yes | yes |
In the table below, the scientific information from above is arranged in a different way, to more clearly show an important principle: When we're evaluating origins theories, logical comparison is important. To distinguish between two theories, we must focus on evidence about disputed components (highlighted in black), not shared components (in gray). And for the two scientific questions that a design theory answers with "?", the contrast between theories is uncertain because this depends on the particular design-claim (and supporting evidence) that is being evaluated, as indicated by the green components.
logical
comparisons for each two-theory combination |
gray
components are shared by both theories being compared,
but the two theories disagree about black components. |
||||
design
|
E
|
oeCmacro
|
oeCindep
|
yeCindep
|
|
design:
design-directed action during the history of life |
o
|
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
evolution (E):
totally natural evolution of all organisms |
o
|
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
|
oeCmacromutation:
old-earth creation (by macromutation of genetic material) |
o
|
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
||
oeCindependent:
old-earth creation (with independent creations) |
o
|
micro-E
old earth descent total E |
|||
yeCindependent:
young-earth creation (with independent creations ) |
o
|
These two tables shows the importance
of precise definitions (for the 4 components and 5 theories) and
logical comparisons (of the 5 theories with each other). The rest
of this section discusses the comparisons in more detail.
Comparing Evolution and Creation
The five modern theories
agree about micro-E and minor macro-E:
Every biological population contains
variations that can be inherited. If a certain variation provides a
competitive advantage for survival and reproduction, this variation (and the
genes that cause it) will become more common in the generations that follow,
producing a "natural selection" change over time in the genetic
makeup of a population. This process of micro-E (due to natural selection
and/or genetic drift,...) can lead to the macro-E formation of new species.
For example, a population might split into isolated subgroups (perhaps living
in different environments with different selection pressures) that genetically
diverge, eventually producing two species that cannot breed with each other.
If the two species thus formed are similar, except for their inability to
interbreed, this is minor macro-E.
Because all modern theories agree with
this aspect of E-theory, evidence that natural selection (and/or other natural
processes) produces minor macro-E does not provide support for neo-Darwinian
E-theory, relative to any of the non-E theories.
note: The definition of macro-E that
is "minor" tends to be broader in oeC than in yeC. But unlike
creationism in the early 1800s, modern yeC does not propose that species are
immutable, or that no new species were formed after the initial 6-day creation
period. Instead, the claim is that E is limited to changes within the
boundaries of the originally created kinds. Most current theories of
yeC propose that each "kind" was created with a large amount of
diverse genetic information in its gene pool, in order to allow subsequent
adaptations (for different ecological contexts and to changing environmental
conditions) by micro-E and minor macro-E. This type of proposal, that
genetic information was "frontloaded" to be used for changes in
the future, is also a part of some oeC theories.
All of the non-E theories (design, oeCmacromutation, oeCindependent, yeCindependent) challenge a claim, made by Total Macro-E, that "undirected natural process" mechanisms are sufficient to produce the entire history of life. They question the plausibility of an extrapolation from micro-E through minor macro-E to Total Macro-E by asking "How many mutations and how much selection would be required, how long would this take, and how probable is it?" Another question is whether multi-part systems that seem irreducibly complex (because all parts seem necessary for performing the system's function) could be produced in a step-by-step process of evolution, since there would be no function to "select for" until all of the parts are present. { These questions are examined more closely in another page. }
The most important difference
between the four non-E theories is an old earth and
basic fossil-E. Are fossils arranged in a way (generally
increasing in complexity and diversity, with appropriate time-and-space biogeographical
relationships) that indicates a long-term developmental history? The
old-earth aspects of neo-Darwinism differ only from yeC and its theories of
flood geology, which propose that most of the earth's geology and fossil record
were formed during a worldwide flood. Thus, much of the evidence often
claimed for evolution — for an old universe, an old earth, and basic fossil
E — is evidence against yeC but not against oeC or design.
Although oeCindependent, oeCmacromutation,
and design are compatible with basic fossil-E, these theories challenge a
claim that all details of the fossil record (including the "Cambrian
explosion" and the long-term stasis of species with minimal change) provide
support for Total Macro-E.
The main scientific difference
between the old-earth theories — oeCindependent and oeCmacromutation,
with creations that are independent or macromutational, respectively
— is common descent. The independent
creations of oeCindependent (or yeC) would break a chain of continuous common
descent. By contrast, with oeCmacromutation the chain is unbroken because
during creation by a macromutational "extensive
modification of genetic material" most of the original genetic
material is not modified, and the parent/offspring relationships are retained.
Therefore, evidence for common descent
— such as a shared genetic code (in most species), structures that seem vestigial,
homologous structures (like bat wings, whale flippers, dog paws, and panda
thumbs) that seem to be "variations on a theme" derived from previously
existing structures, similarities in gene sequences (ranging from essential
developmental Hox genes to apparently nonfunctional pseudogenes) in different
species, and "molecular clock" correlations — is consistent with
either oeCmacromutation or natural evolution.
Although this
evidence would be possible with oeCindependent, there seems to be no logical
explanation for much of the data if common descent has been interrupted by
totally independent creations. With oeCindependent, sometimes there
might be a logical reason for a designer to re-use functional components from
an existing organism in a newly created organism. But in most cases
a history of common descent (as proposed in oeCmacromutation or E) seems to
be a simpler, more plausible explanation. With independent creation
(either old-earth or young-earth) we might expect designs to appear independent
and optimal. By contrast, theories of oeCmacromutation and E both predict
that new species will appear to be modifications of old species, because this
is what they are. {panda thumb theology}
Notice that, although common descent
and Total Macro-E are often equated by proponents of E, they are not the same.
oeCmacromutation agrees with common descent, but proposes some supernatural
creation activity that — if we could compare the genomes before and after
a creation event — would appear to be miraculous rather than natural, so
it challenges a theory of completely natural Total Macro-E.
Can scientists distinguish
between oeCmacromutation and evolution? With detailed data — such as
lab reports (for physiology, structure, DNA,...) for all organisms during
a period of change — it would be easy. But it's more difficult with
the data we actually have because oeCmacromutation, which includes two mechanisms
(continual natural-appearing evolution and occasional
miraculous-appearing macromutational genetic modifications), is consistent
with most evidence for evolution. The major differences are that oeCmacromutation
challenges Total Macro-E by raising questions (re: irreducible
complexity, rates of change,...) about important details of bio-E.
Does oeCmacromutation have to be "more
different"? No. A "high contrast" with other theories
is not a requirement for a scientific theory. For example, in most situations
the predictions of Newton's classical mechanics and Einstein's special relativity
are almost identical. But we don't demand that, if we are to take Einstein
seriously, his theory must be modified to make it differ from Newton's theory
in other ways, so that (for our convenience, so we can use data that is easy
to collect and analyze) we can more easily distinguish between his theory
and Newton's theory.
Comparing
Design and Evolution
In a theory of intelligent
design, the "when and how" details are optional (they may or may
not be included), as explained in Section 3.
Since a basic theory of design does not have to explain the details (of when,
how, why, who,...) it can answer questions about an old earth or common descent
with a noncommittal "I don't know." Thus, the two "?"s
in the tables.
But conventional theories of neo-Darwinian
E (which make a claim for Total Macro-E by undirected natural process with
no design) require both an old earth and common descent, so evidence against
either would be evidence against E and for biological design. Therefore,
some proponents of design argue against common descent (or an old earth) because
they think this is justified by the evidence and will be helpful — even though
it isn't necessary (because it is only one of several possible ways that evolution
might be false) — in providing evidence against non-design evolution.
Other proponents of design, including
myself, think the scientific evidence indicates common descent (and an old
earth) but not Total Macro-E. If logical scientific evaluation provides
support for common descent, arguing against common descent is counter-productive
in building a case for design because this will focus attention on aspects
of biology where (we think) the evidence is consistent with evolutionary theory,
and will distract attention from important questions — about irreducible
complexity, rates of change,... — where evidence indicates that a theory
of Total Macro-E may be incorrect.
Necessity,
Sufficiency, and Status
For a theory with the logical structure of evolution,
we use and-logic for determining truth, but or-logic for determining
falsity: if a theory of neo-Darwinian Total Macro-E is true, this requires
the truth of micro-E and old earth and common descent and
Total Macro-E, which means that the falsity of Total Macro-E requires
the falsity of micro-E or old earth or common descent or
Total Macro-E. These and/or requirements can be expressed in terms
of necessity and sufficiency: the truth of each component is necessary
(but not sufficient) for the truth of Total Macro-E, so the falsity of any
component is sufficient (but not necessary) for the falsity of Total Macro-E.
To be logical, we must abandon a two-theory
approach and think in terms of (at least) three theories: Total Macro-E, design
with descent, and design without descent. In a three-way comparison,
evidence against descent counts against Total Macro-E and design with descent,
and it counts for design without descent. Similarly, evidence for descent
counts for two theories (Total Macro-E and design with descent) and against
one theory (design without descent). But evidence about descent, either
for or against it, does not help us distinguish between Total Macro-E and
design with descent.
Although
in logic it is convenient to think about truth or falsity (as in the first
paragraph above), usually in science it's more useful to frame our logic in
terms of the evidence for or against a theory (as in the second paragraph).
In science we cannot logically prove that a theory is true or false,
but scientists can develop a logically justified confidence in the
truth or falsity of a theory.
As a reminder that the outcome of theory
evaluation is an educated estimate rather than a claim for certainty, it is
useful to think in terms of a theory status,
which can range along a continuum from low to high, to describe the degree
of confidence in a theory.
The question, "Can design be proved?",
is discussed in the Appendix.
A Summary
of Section 4
To evaluate theories in a way that is
scientifically rational, we need conceptual precision and logical
comparison.
Scientifically, theistic evolution agrees
with neo-Darwinism; theologically, it is a theory of creation.
Each creationist theory (old-earth macromutational,
old-earth independent, young-earth independent) is similar in proposing a
history of nature with a combination of normal-appearing natural events and
miraculous-appearing events, but there are significant scientific differences.
Each theory agrees with small-scale evolution (micro-E and minor macro-E)
but disagrees with Total Macro-E. The old-earth theories, oeCmacromutation
and oeCindependent, agree with evidence for an old earth and basic fossil-E;
and oeCmacromutation agrees with common descent.
In evolutionary biology, the basic claim
of a design theory is that scientific evidence does not support Total Macro-E;
questions about common descent or old-earth fossil progressions are included
in some design theories (about the ways in which natural evolution is inadequate
to explain the history of life) but not in other design theories.
The focus of this page
is METHODS of evaluation — especially the criteria that should be
used, and should not be used, when comparing theories — rather than OUTCOMES
of evaluation. Since the outcome of a scientific evaluation should
depend on scientific evidence, the evidence (and its interpretation) is the
focus of other pages.
5. Shifts of Meaning
Distortions
of Perceived Support (How does it occur?)
What happens when a word with many meanings
is used inconsistently, without precision, by shifting from one meaning to
another? The perceived support for the word can increase, or it can
decrease.
an increase: The perceived support
for evolution can be artificially increased in a two-step process involving
faulty logic. First there is an explanation of the ample evidence for
a strongly supported meaning of evolution, such as micro-E, minor macro-E,
or basic fossil-E. Second, without calling attention to the shift, this
support is transferred to another meaning, such as Total Macro-E, that has
weaker empirical support.
a decrease: In a similar two-step
process, evidence against one creationist theory is shifted onto another creationist
theory. For example, criticisms of young-earth theories (which are one
component of young-earth creationism) are often shifted onto theories of old-earth
creation. And the important scientific differences between one old-earth
theory (independent creation) and another old-earth theory (genetic modification)
are ignored.
avoiding an increase or decrease: An "evolution shift" increases the implied support for evolution, while a "creation shift" weakens the implied support for creation. In each case the shift (and associated implication) is not logically justified. If we think logical distortions are undesirable, we should avoid these illogical shifts by using precise definitions and logical comparisons, as explained in Sections 1-4 and in the summaries below:
Avoiding
Shifts, Part 1 (for theories of evolution)
To minimize illogical evolution-shifts,
we should clearly explain the many meanings of evolution.
We should always distinguish between fossil-E (basic and detailed), common
descent, micro-E, macro-E (minor and major), and Total Macro-E. These
theories of E, which can be viewed as sub-theories within an overall theory
of E, are related yet distinct. Each sub-theory makes different claims
and is supported by different evidence, so our estimates of plausibility should
be different for each sub-theory about a particular type of E.
By contrast, if there is only "evolution"
it is too easy to assume that evidence for some aspects of evolutionary theory
— such as basic "old earth" progressions in the fossil record,
or micro-E (when natural selection causes changes in the frequency of various
types of finch beaks, or produces bacteria populations resistant to commonly
used drugs) or minor macro-E speciation (when a species "splits"
to produce two new species that, although they cannot interbreed, are otherwise
very similar) — provides strong support for Total Macro-E.
When we estimate the plausibility of
an extrapolation from micro-E to Total Macro-E, there should be a rigorous
evaluation for each step connecting the intermediate levels. This analysis
should be based on tight logic, not loose language that allows a transfer
of support from one level to another.
Avoiding
Shifts, Part 2 (for theories of design or creation)
In a logical evaluation, we must compare
theories of creation with each other and with theories of evolution, to see
where they agree and disagree, as explained in Section 4.
These comparisons will show why evidence for some components of evolutionary
theory (for an old earth, common descent,...) should decrease the evaluative
status of some theories but not others.
For example, evidence for "an old
earth with basic fossil progressions" will lower the evaluative status
of young-earth creationism, but it says nothing about the plausibility of
old-earth creationism.
And evidence for common descent — such
as a shared genetic code, similar pseudogenes, and homologous structures —
deserves a response of "So what?" when comparing Total Macro-E with
a theory of old-earth creation by macromutational genetic change. Evidence
for common descent is necessary for showing the plausibility of Total
Macro-E, but is not sufficient (in fact, it is not relevant at
all) for showing that Total Macro-E is a better explanation.
When we apply the principles of logical
comparison and ask, "Does this evidence really matter?", we see
that most of the evidence typically proposed in support of evolution is
irrelevant
when comparing Total Macro-E with old-earth creation by macromutation or
with a basic theory of intelligent design. For a comparative evaluation
of any two competitive theories, instead of wasting time on questions where
both
theories agree, we should focus on the differences. Strong support
for Total Macro-E requires strong answers for tough questions, such as those
about
irreducible complexity or rates of change. / Or
we can ask another question that is related to irreducible
complexity, but is even more challenging: Could a nonliving
system naturally achieve the minimal complexity required
to replicate itself and thus become capable of changing, in successive generations,
by neo-Darwinian evolution? Was the first living
organism produced by undirected
natural process? {note: This question
is independent from neo-Darwinian theory, which simply assumes the existence
of an organism that could reproduce,
and doesn't try to explain how the first living organism became alive.}
Shifting
by Ignoring
Unfortunately often, defenders of "evolution as fact"
make three logical mistakes: theories of design and creation are equated;
creationism is characterized as young-earth creationism; if old-earth
creation is acknowledged, it is limited to independent creation, thus ignoring
the possibility of creation by genetic modification.
For example, old-earth
creation is defined as "independent creation" by Eugenie
Scott (of the National Center for Science Education), Mark
Isaak (in the Talk Origins website), and Wesley
Elsberry. Scott says, "Progressive
Creationists [oeC] generally believe that God created "kinds" of animals
sequentially; the fossil record is thus an accurate representation
of history because different
animals and plants appeared at different times rather than having been created
all at once. PCs reject the inference that earlier forms are
genetically related to later ones; kinds are separate creations: descent
with modification
does not occur. ... Even though OECs accept most of modern physics, chemistry,
and geology, they are not very dissimilar to YECs in their rejection
of descent
with modification." According to Isaak, "Progressive
Creationists... generally believe that... the newer kinds are specially
created,
not genetically related to older kinds." And Elsberry defines
evolutionists very broadly, in a way that encompasses oeCmacromutation,
as
"those who accept evolutionary change in the sense
of common descent of life on earth." Similarly, the "Evolution
and the Nature of Science" Institute (in its Fair
Test) and Craig Nelson (describing "Effective Strategies for Teaching
Evolution" in The
Creation Controversy & The Science Classroom for the National Science
Teachers Association) consider only theories proposing independent creation.
In each case, oeCmacromutation (with creation
by modification of existing genetic material) is ignored. Is this because
the authors think oeCmacromutation is the scientifically strongest theory
of creation, and — in violation of logical principles for comparing competitive
theories — they would rather compare naturalistic evolution with only the
weaker alternatives?
Why do shifts of meaning
occur?
A shift of meaning can arise from an intention
to mislead, inadequate understanding of concepts, lack of communication skill,
or (in one type of shift) from a decision to narrowly focus on the most visible
and vocal form of creationism. But value judgments (about the relative
importance of different evaluation criteria) can provide a reason to ignore
distinctions between theories, to ignore differences (when similarities are
considered more important) or to ignore similarities (when differences are
considered
more important).
For example, a proponent of yeC might place
such a high priority on young-earth theology that any theistic old-earth position
(independent creation, creation by macromutation, or theistic evolution) will
be opposed with equal vigor, because differences between these positions seem
less important than their old-earth similarities. And the creationist
similarities between old-earth creation and young-earth creation can be ignored
(or treated as if they were not important) when there is a heavy emphasis on
"age of the earth" differences.
On the other hand, a fanatical evolutionist
might choose to see only the creationist similarities, while ignoring the scientifically
important differences. And for a person who abhors any implication of
God "interfering with nature," any proposal for detectable theistic
action is abhorrent, and all creationist theories (and even theories of design,
which don't propose divine action but don't forbid it) are equally guilty.
Value judgments are an essential part of life. In all of our evaluative decisions, we make judgments about the relative importance of various criteria. But a strong weighting of evaluation criteria often produces a closed mind with a "flattening of perspectives" that leads to stereotyping people and overlooking logic (*). Therefore, we should carefully analyze our value judgments to check for wisdom and utility, so we can avoid inaccurate evaluations and unwarranted implications.
* For example, an evolutionist who believes
that "all creationists are irrational" may be tempted to claim scientific
support against a generic "creationism" by citing evidence for an
old earth or for common descent. In contrast with this sloppy logic, critical
thinking that is more precise would explicitly acknowledge that "evidence
for an old earth supports my position against yeC (but not oeCindependent or
oeCmacromutation)" and that "evidence for common descent supports
my position against yeC and oeCindependent (but not oeCmacromutation)."
A Summary of Sections
1-5:
The quality of our thinking and evaluating,
in science and education, will improve when we use precise definitions and logical
comparisons, when we accurately understand all theories, explicitly acknowledge
their similarities and differences, and use this knowledge in our evaluations
and communications.
Sections 1-5 are mainly about scientific logic.
Sections 6-7 are about philosophies of science and education.
6. Should science be
logical? Are questions justified?
We should not waste our time on logical
principles for scientific evaluation if the questions being asked are not scientific,
or if the evidence for evolution is so strong that "evolution is fact"
is the only rational conclusion. Are questions about evolution scientific?
are they justified? Unfortunately, defenders of evolution often claim
that answers of "no" provide a reason to avoid the process of comparative
evaluation, based on scientific evidence, that is outlined in Section 4.
In most of this page, the focus is on logic.
This section, however, will look at some ways in which the process of logical
evaluation is affected by philosophical preference and cultural-personal influence.
{ It assumes you have read Intelligent Design (in Section
3) and Comparing Design and Evolution (in Section 4). }
Methodological Naturalism
Those who oppose a critical examination
of evolution claim that a theory of intelligent design
(which proposes that a particular feature was produced by design-directed
action, and was not the result of undirected natural
process) cannot be scientific. This philosophical claim is based
on a preference for methodological naturalism (MN)
which proposes that authentically scientific thinking must always lead to the
conclusion that "it happened by natural process." If science
is restricted by MN, and if a design theory says "maybe it didn't happen
by natural process," then design cannot be scientific.
Open Science and Closed Science
The difference between science that is open and closed
is the difference in responding to a question: Has
the history of the universe included both natural and non-natural causes?
In open science (liberated from MN) this question
can be evaluated based on scientific evidence. In closed
science (restricted by MN) the process of science is irrelevant because
the inevitable conclusion — no matter what is being studied, or what is the
evidence — is that "it happened by natural process."
The many benefits of Open Science are carefully examined,
in more depth, in an overview of Design
in Science that encourages you to learn more because "even
though some arguments for Closed Science may seem strong initially, the counter-arguments
are stronger and more logical, and the closer we examine Open Science, the better
it looks." For example, an argument that "supernatural
causation is unscientific because the agent and the action-mechanism are unobservable"
seems impressive initially, until we think more carefully about the methods
of modern science: "Modern scientists often infer
the existence of an unobservable cause (an electron,
idea,...) due to the observable effects it produces.
Similarly, if we observe "signs of design" we can infer design-directed
action, even if the agent and action were not observed."
This section looks briefly at a
few of the many benefits of open science:
The Possibility of
Unavoidable Error
Is MN always the best way to do science?
Maybe not. Imagine two possible worlds: one world has a history
of nature with all events caused by only natural process, while the other world
has a history of nature that includes both natural and non-natural events.
When we ask, "Which type of world do we actually live in?", we hope
our science will help us, not hinder us, in our search for the answer.
But in one of the two possible worlds a closed science, restricted by MN, must
inevitably reach the wrong conclusion. By contrast, in either world a
non-MN science will allow (although it cannot guarantee) reaching the correct
conclusion.
In open science, a scientist begins with
MN but is free to use both MN and non-MN modes of thinking, to consider a wider
range of possibilities that include both non-design and design. A scientist
begins by assuming non-design (with the operation of only undirected natural
process) but recognizes that this is an assumption, a theory to be tested, not
a conclusion to be accepted. There is flexible open-minded inquiry, with
individual and communal freedom of thought, and scientists can follow the data
wherever it leads. Each theory is evaluated based on its merit, and if
a non-MN conclusion is justified by the evidence, this is allowed. An
open science is consistent with scientists' preference for intellectual freedom.
Bypass the Process, Claim the Authority
Many advocates of evolution claim that MN is an essential
foundation of science. Ironically, however, MN provides a way to bypass
the process of science and then claim the authority of science.
Of course, The Grand Conclusion of MN-Science —
that for every event in the history of the universe, "it happened by natural
process" — is actually the assumption of MN.
The circular reasoning of MN-science, which converts a naturalistic assumption
into a naturalistic conclusion, is automatic and unavoidable. But even
though no science is needed, the authority of science is claimed as support
for The Grand Assumption of an all-natural history of nature. Does this
seem logical?
Should science be logical?
If we want science to be a search
for truth, should we define the main goal of science as a
search for NATURAL explanations, or a search for
LOGICAL explanations? Of course, when we ask "Should science
be logical?", everyone agrees that YES is the answer. But disagreements
occur when we ask "If there is a conflict between
logical and natural, which criterion should have the higher priority?"
Should we be forced (by methodological naturalism) to accept a "scientific
conclusion" that is less logical, simply because it is natural? For
example,...
Is evidence irrelevant?
To see the irrelevance of evidence when methodological
naturalism determines the conclusion, compare the evidence-based
implausibility (earned by current theories for a "chemical evolution"
origin of life) with the naturalism-based confidence
of the National Academy of Sciences when they boldly assert that "For
those who are studying the origin of life, the question is no longer whether
life could have originated by chemical processes involving nonbiological components.
The question instead has become which of many pathways might have been followed
to produce the first cells. (Science and Creationism, 1999)"
Yes, evidence is irrelevant when we rely on the logic of naturalism: Even
though each of the "many pathways" is
highly implausible, one pathway must have produced life (because according to
naturalism this is the only possibility) so confidence does not require evidence.
Of course, the irrelevance of evidence
does not mean there is no evidence, or that MN will lead to a wrong conclusion.
(*) But it does illustrate a logical weakness of MN, which requires that
we must reach a scientific conclusion before doing any science.
* And the status of biological evolution, which begins after the origin of life, is not related to the status of chemical evolution, so each theory should be evaluated independently.
Reasons for Questions?
Should we ever question the authority of
scientists?
In science education we accept the claims of physicists
about theories of motion. Therefore, shouldn't we also accept the analogous
claims of biologists about theories of evolution? And if a physics teacher
feels a duty to persuade students that current theories are true, shouldn't
a biology teacher also do this? Why should the authority of scientists
be accepted (and used as a justification for persuasion) in one case, but questioned
in the other?
Because this argument for evolution depends
on analogy between two situations that are similar in some ways but different
in others, we should logically analyze the similarities and (especially) the
differences. In this case there is an important difference when we ask,
"Are there scientific reasons for caution?" For some aspects
of evolution, but not motion, a logical analysis of evidence seems to provide
reasons for critical questions.
But are these questions
really justified? Most evolutionary biologists claim that their only questions
are about HOW (but not WHETHER) Total Macro-E occurred. To support their
claim for unanimous consensus, they point to the absence of challenge and debate
in their own scientific journals. But is the absence of questions due
to an absence of evidence, or a reluctance to look at the evidence? One
illustration of reluctance is the experience of a scientist whose questions
were rejected by an editorial board because "our
journal... believes that evolutionary explanations of all structures and phenomena
of life are possible and inevitable." {Behe and
journals}
Cultural-Personal
Influence
In all areas of science, including evolutionary biology,
theory evaluation is affected by cultural-personal influences.
In the current institutional structure of biology, an uncritical acceptance
of evolutionary theory offers many professional advantages, making it easier
to obtain funding and publications, employment and promotions, and respectful
acceptance from colleagues. By contrast, a public questioning of evolution
can damage a scientist's career. Even a decision to allow questions
by others can be "a bad career move" for a journal editor, because
the absence of design in scientific journals is the basis of an argument
that "theories
of design are not scientific so they should not be allowed in public schools."
{an
example from NCSE} This argument produces a strong pressure to avoid
being the first editor to break the "design barrier" and acknowledge
the scientific legitimacy of design questions, such as those Behe asks about
irreducible
complexity, by allowing them in your own journal. And as discussed above,
a commitment to methodological naturalism guarantees that, no matter what
the
evidence indicates, the "scientific" theory will be a naturalistic
theory.
If there are reasons to suspect that the
institutional structure and interpersonal dynamics of a discipline are hindering
its objectivity, there are reasons to wonder whether we should uncritically
accept everything the discipline claims. If internal self-checks are hindered,
it seems wise to listen with an open mind to critics of the "consensus
conclusions" offered by the discipline. Of course, even if biology
currently has a strong disciplinary bias in favor of Total Macro-E, this bias
does not mean that Total Macro-E is necessarily false. But it does provide
a reason for caution.
If we don't uncritically accept the consensus
conclusion offered by the scientific community, what is the alternative?
We can be open-minded when listening to critics of the consensus, and by using
careful analysis we can try to determine what the evaluation status of Total
Macro-E would be with an unbiased science based on pure logic, if cultural-personal
factors were minimal and we could objectively evaluate the evidence.
Should we ask the question?
If there could be an unbiased evaluation,
what would be the conclusion? It depends on the type of evolutionary theory
being evaluated. There is some evidence for all aspects of biological
evolution, and strong evidence for some aspects. By contrast, theories
of chemical evolution have earned a very low status. But even for theories
with low status, a claim for design-directed action should be made with caution
and humility. Why? Because a claim that "undirected natural
process was insufficient to produce this feature" requires an evaluation
of current theories based on current evidence, plus an imaginative
yet realistic extrapolation into the future of science to estimate what
the evaluation status might be with theories and evidence in the future.
{Can we prove design?}
Intelligent scientists can rationally disagree
about the evaluation status of current theories and (especially) future theories.
Yes, it can be difficult to confidently answer the question, "Was design
involved in producing this feature?" But it should be easy to decide,
"Should we ask the question?" A curious, open-minded
scientific community will say "YES, we want our science to be flexible
and open to free inquiry."
Are questions justified?
Maybe, as explained in Sections 4 and 5, much of the high
status usually given to evolution is due to an illogical shifting of support
from some aspects of evolution (such as patterns of change in the fossil record,
and small-scale changes produced by natural selection) onto claims for a large-scale
"natural production of everything" (a Total Macro-E) that is not as
well supported. Maybe when these shifts are avoided so there is a clear
definition of evolution (in claims for "evolution as fact") and the
evidence is carefully examined, some interesting questions will seem scientifically
justified, and humility about some aspects of evolution will seem logically
appropriate.
The questions in this section are examined more thoroughly in a page about methodological naturalism that explains why Open Science is Better Science.
Based on the logical principles in this page and the legal principles in Intelligent Design in Public School Science Curricula: A Legal Guidebook (1999), it seems that the most educationally effective and legally acceptable method, in American public schools, is to focus on the accurate understanding and logical evaluation of two origins theories: natural evolution and intelligent design. The table below summarizes the logical criteria that should (and should not) be used in a comparative evaluation of these two theories.
mere evolution | mere design | |
micro-E and minor macro-E | YES | YES |
old earth with basic fossil-E | YES |
( YES ) |
common descent |
YES
|
MAYBE |
natural Total Macro-E | YES | NO |
claims that "God did it" | ? | ? |
In the "old earth..."
row, the "(YES)" indicates that time is not a factor in a comparative
evaluation of evolution and design, because old-earth proponents of design
think
the earth really is old, and "for the sake of argument" most young-earth proponents
are willing to accept, during evaluations of evolution, an assumption that
billions
of
years
were
available
during the history of life.
In the "common descent" row,
the MAYBE is a reminder that some design theories deny common descent while
others affirm it (as explained earlier), and that the truth of each component
of E (micro-E, basic fossil-E, common descent) is necessary, but is not sufficient,
for the
truth
of Total Macro-E.
The "natural Total Macro-E" row
has the only clear contrast of YES-versus-NO. Therefore, these questions (about
irreducible complexity, rates of evolution,...) should be the main focus during
a logical scientific evaluation when we're trying to distinguish between evolution
and design, between undirected
natural process and design-directed action.
The "mere" in mere
evolution and mere design indicates that
a "metaphysically stripped down" version of each theory, with minimal
religious implications, is being discussed in the classroom. In doing
this, a teacher can be aware of the wide range of implications (psychological,
sociological, theological,...) associated with every origins theory, and then
make a decision that these will not be emphasized in the classroom. Instead,
the focus will be on scientific evidence and logical evaluation.
How can the concept of "mere science" be
actualized in a public school classroom? What should a teacher say about
naturalistic evolution and intelligent design? Although these origins
theories are not explicitly religious, they may have religious implications
for students. Many students, whether or not they are vocalizing their
internal questions, will be curious about the religious implications of evolution
and design, which can be (but don't have to be)
associated with atheism and theism.
How can a teacher handle these questions in a way that is informative (so students
are not forced to "fill in the blanks" with what they think a teacher is intending)
without crossing over the line into persuasion?
Of course, a public school teacher should
avoid persuasion for (or against) the religious beliefs of students. And
the goal of instruction can be a maximum understanding (by students) of evolution,
rather than a maximum persuading (of students) about evolution. { Proponents
of design want to teach more about evolution, not less, to help students improve
their understanding of this important theory. }
Maybe a teacher can adopt a "some but not
too much" approach by carefully describing the components of evolution, and
explaining that within each religion there are differences of opinion about
each component, and that these debates (although interesting and important)
will not be part of the classroom discussion, which will focus on science.
Maybe.
This paper will not try to offer detailed
advice about how to cope with the challenge of teaching "mere science" wisely
and effectively in a climate of controversy. But I think it is safe
to say that "Effective teaching... depends on the
integrity and skill of individual teachers who think carefully, with wisdom
and courage,
about desirable goals, who build a solid foundation by adequate preparation
and planning, and carry out their plans with sensitivity and respect."
{ from Critical Thinking about Evolution
in Public Schools }
Of course, for education in private schools (religious or secular) and home schools, teachers and students can use the full framework with all theories (proposing evolution, design, or creation) being compared.
If you want to learn more about origins education in American public schools, in the context of the U.S. Constitution and recent legal decisions, I suggest reading Intelligent Design in Public School Science Curricula: A Legal Guidebook (by David DeWolf, Stephen Meyer, and Mark DeForrest, 1999). Their long page — which is actually a short book, graciously made available to you for free — offers a wealth of useful information about public education, examined in the context of the U.S. Constitution and recent legal decisions. It is carefully written, and a careful reading will help you develop an increased depth of understanding. { In the appendix, A Guide to the Guidebook gives tips for reading it. } Their basic conclusion, summarized and oversimplified in my own words, is that "Yes, it is legal for a teacher to encourage critical thinking about evolution, when this is done with wisdom and skill."
Appendix:
Sources of Ideas
Panda Thumb Theology
The Origin of Life
Can design be proved?
Critical Thinking in Closed Science
A Guide to the Guidebook
Sources of Ideas
Elliott Sober
uses the Olympic Weightlifter Theory to illustrate a Surprise
Principle (When does successful prediction provide strong evidence?)
in the chapter about "Inductive and Abductive Arguments" in his book, Core
Questions in Philosophy. {back to Logical Comparisons}
And a strategy of imagining two
worlds (and thus the possibility of unavoidable error) was suggested by
another philosopher, Paul Nelson, at a conference
about "Design and its Critics" in June 2000.
Panda Thumb Theology
(Can we predict what God would do?)
Do "imperfect adaptations"
provide evidence for Total Macro-E by natural process? Is it true that
"Odd arrangements and funny solutions are the proof
of evolution... [because] God surely would not have used a collection of parts
generally fashioned for other purposes." Here, in The Panda's
Thumb, Stephen Jay Gould asserts that God "surely
would not," as if he knows what God would have done. But in
the Bible, it seems that God usually is not interested in a history that appears
optimal, or theistic action that appears obvious. But the possibility
of creation-activity that is not "optimal and obvious" is opposed
by advocates of Total Macro-E, who want a competitor with predictions that are
different from E-theory and easy
to falsify. {back}
The
Origin of Life (by Chemical Evolution?)
Scientists who are trying to imagine
how life might have arisen naturally propose a two-stage process:
1) formation of organic molecules, which
combine to make larger biomolecules;
2) self-organization of these molecules
into a living organism.
What scientists are learning is that the complexity required for life (in terms of biomolecule formation and self-organization) is much greater than the complexity possible by natural process (beginning with lifeless matter). This huge difference has motivated scientists to creatively construct new theories for reducing requirements and enhancing possibilities, but none of these ideas has progressed from speculation to plausibility. {details}
The section below is from the "Design and Science" part of my introductory overview of Origins Questions for Science and Theology:
7B. Can design be proved?
In science, proof is impossible,
but scientists can develop a logically justified confidence in the truth
or falsity of a theory.
Because a feature was produced by either
non-design or design (*), if the evaluative status of non-design decreases,
the status of design increases. And vice versa. By testing for non-design,
we can test for design. We can conclude that a design theory is
probably true (if all non-design theories seem highly implausible) or
is probably false (if one non-design theory seems
highly plausible). { * In Sections 7A-7D, design
means "empirically detectable design-directed
action during the history of nature," not
design by natural process. }
an application: Current theories
for a natural origin of life seem highly implausible. Is it rational for
scientists to consider the possibility that life might have been the result
of design-directed action? Of course, certainty is impossible because
we can never propose and test all possibilities for non-design. But we
could develop a logically justified confidence that our search has been thorough
yet futile, and no promising approaches remain unexplored.
Future developments in science could make
the status of non-design increase (if we discover how a feature could have been
produced by non-design) or decrease (if new knowledge reinforces our doubts
about non-design). To decide which "future science" is more
probable, we must predict improvements in current theories
and inventions of new theories. This requires
creativity (to imagine what could be) plus criticality (to make realistic predictions
about what is probable in reality, not just possible in our imaginations) so
we can avoid the extremes of insisting that in science "nothing new will
ever happen" or "anything could happen."
In several areas, including the
origin of life, scientific analysis shows that design deserves to be accepted, not
as the only explanation, but as a potential explanation
that is reasonably plausible and is worthy of serious consideration and
further development.
What about future
developments in science?
Scientists can look at the properties (the unfavorable chemical equilibria,
the high degree
of
biocomplexity
required
for metabolism
and reproduction,...) that make a natural origin of life seem implausible,
and try to imagine ways in which future knowledge might change our views of
each
property. They can ask, "How likely is each change?" and "How
would it affect our evaluations for a natural origin of life?"
back to Intelligent
Design
or Proof and Status
Critical Thinking
in Closed Science
Section 7B concludes, "the
potential of design theories to make valuable scientific contributions should
be recognized and welcomed." In reality, has there been a
gracious "welcome to our house" reception, or is the door being jealously
guarded by zealous gatekeepers of knowledge?
When Mike Behe submitted papers about irreducible
complexity (*) to science journals,
what was the response? "While some science
journal editors are individually tolerant and will entertain thoughts of publishing
challenges to current views, when a group (such as the editorial board) gets
together, orthodoxy prevails." {from Behe's Correspondence
with Science Journals: response to critics concerning peer-review}
For example, a senior journal advisor responded to Behe's critical analysis
with a generous proposal for delayed publication: "Having
not yet understood all of biology is not a failure after just 200 years...
Let us speak about it again in 1000 years." And the editorial
board of another journal concluded their letter of rejection, "Our
journal... believes that evolutionary explanations of all structures and phenomena
of life are possible and inevitable." { from Behe's "Correspondence..."
}
*
If a biochemical system with multiple parts is irreducibly
complex (if all
parts are necessary for performing the system's function), could this system
be produced
in a
step-by-step
process of evolution by natural selection, since there is no function to "select
for" until all of the parts are present?
According to a noble ideal of objective
science — operating in a community of curious, open-minded scientists who are
exploring freely, thinking flexibly, and dedicated to finding the truth — the
response should be different. Ideally, instead of ignoring the concept
of design, pretending it doesn't exist and trying to exclude it from the mainstream
of science, its tough questions would be carefully examined and used as a stimulus
for critical analysis, creative thinking, and productive action. Instead,
scientifically interesting questions are avoided: "Let
us speak about it again in 1000 years."
In an open-minded free science, Behe's
perceptive thought-provoking ideas would be enthusiastically welcomed as an
opportunity to increase the range of conceptual diversity, an invitation to
move "beyond the black box" in order to gain a more complete and detailed
understanding of evolution at the molecular level, consistent with the standards
of modern molecular biology. The scientific journals — fulfilling their
potential as a haven of free thinking — would be eager to host invigorating
debates about new ideas, to stimulate and facilitate interactions between critics
of a theory and its loyal defenders. Instead, these questions are resented
and rejected, because an editorial board "believes
that evolutionary explanations... are inevitable."
Originally, this
was from Section 7D of an extended argument
(in Sections 7A-7E of my page
explaining why Open Science is Better Science) for the benefits
of Open Science: 7A and 7C-7E explain the rationality of an open
science (which is not restricted by methodological naturalism, and is willing
to consider design); 7B looks at "the five possibilities" and
the challenge of extrapolating our evaluations into the future; 7F examines
"Cultural-Personal Factors in Science"; 7G asks "Can a
theory of evolution be scientific?" and explains why YES is the answer.
{more details about Behe
and journals, and freedom in science} {back to main body}
Sections
7A and 7C-7E of Open Science is Better Science explain the rationality
of an Open Science (which is not restricted by methodological naturalism, and
is
willing to consider design); 7F examines "Cultural-Personal Factors
in Science"; 7G asks "Can a theory of evolution be scientific?"
and explains why YES is the answer.
A
Guide to the Guidebook
To get an overview of the Legal Guidebook
you can read their Introduction and Conclusion (in Chapters 1 and 9) and the
Preface, written by Jon Buell, which explains why a folksy proverb — "a Smith
and Wesson beats four aces" — is, unfortunately, often relevant in origins
education. Chapters 2 and 3 ask, "Is critical thinking justified
by scientific evidence and logic, and is it therefore scientific?";
Chapters 4-7 look at constitutional and legal principles for the treatment of
religion in public schools; and Chapter 8 explains what local school boards
should consider when making decisions.
This website for Whole-Person Education has TWO KINDS OF LINKS:
an ITALICIZED LINK keeps you inside a page, moving you to another part of it, and a NON-ITALICIZED LINK opens another page. Both keep everything inside this window, so your browser's BACK-button will always take you back to where you were. |
Evaluating Theories
about The Origin of Life other pages about Origins Questions by Craig Rusbult and Origins Questions |
This page is
http://www.asa3.org/ASA/education/origins/scilogic.htm
Copyright © 2002 by Craig Rusbult
all rights reserved