This page builds on the foundation of Historical
Science: Is it scientific? (Part
1) by applying general principles to specific types of historical
theories that propose naturalistic
evolution (in
Section 7G) and intelligent design (in Section
7C).
Two Kinds of Science: Operations and
Historical
The Scientific
Method does not exist, because no single method is used in the same
way by all scientists at all times. But scientists use scientific
methods that are variations on a few basic themes.
Some variations are due to differences
between operations science (to study the current
operation of nature, what is happening now) and historical
science (to study the previous operation of nature, what happened in
the past). Both types of science are similar in most important ways,
especially in their use of scientific logic, but there are minor differences.
Although repeatable controlled
experiments (with the situation set up by humans) can be done in operations
science, this is not possible for historical events. But this limitation
has inspired scientists to develop methods that reduce the practical impact
of this limitation. One way to reduce the impact is to use repeatable uncontrolled
experiments (with the situation set up by nature) and look for consistencies. These
consistencies let scientists develop reliable theories that usually are related
to (and are
consistent with) theories in operations science.
A common misconcpetion about historical
science involves the timing of inference. A theory-based inference about "what
happens if this theory is true" can be logically valid even if it is made after
an event has occurred, or after observations are known. In historical
science, the goal is to describe and explain what did happen, not predict
what will happen.
Is it bad to
be a theory?
Would it be accurate to summarize a claim (which is disputed
above) that "evolution is unreliable because
it is historical" by proclaiming that "evolution
is just a theory"? No, because in science, "theory" does
not mean "unreliable." In fact, I don't think the word "theory" should
have any special significance, so in my model of Integrated
Scientific
Method a theory can have a high or low plausibility,
a simple or complex structure, a narrow or broad domain, and it can be descriptive
or explanatory. Therefore, simply
calling
a
proposal
a "theory" says
nothing about its quality or characteristics.
Can we predict
the designs of God?
Do "imperfect adaptations" provide
evidence for bio-E? "God surely would not
have used a collection of parts generally fashioned for other purposes. ...
Odd arrangements and funny solutions are the proof of evolution." Here,
in The
Panda's Thumb, Stephen Jay Gould asserted that God "surely
would not," as if he knew what God would have done. But
in the Bible, it seems that God does not want a history that appears optimal,
or theistic action that appears obvious. { Why
isn't God more obvious? Can we prove God? }
The possibility of design-action that
is not "optimal and obvious" is opposed by advocates of bio-E,
who want a competitor with predictions that are different
from E-theory and easy to falsify. Young-earth
science meets both qualifications, and with independent creation (either
young-earth or old-earth) we might expect designs to appear independent and
optimal. By contrast, old-earth creation by genetic
modification (oeCmodification) predicts
that new species will appear to be modifications of old species, because
this
is what they are.
Distinguishing
between Similar Theories
Can we distinguish between
oeCmodification and evolution? Maybe. With detailed data — such
as lab reports (for physiology, structure, genome-DNA,...) for all organisms
during a
period of change — it would be easy. But with the data we actually
have, it is more difficult.
Because oeCmodification includes
two mechanisms, continual natural-appearing evolution and occasional miraculous-appearing
macromutations, oeCmodification
is consistent with most evidence for evolution. The major differences
are that oeCmodification raises questions (re: irreducible
complexity, rates of change, extrapolating from micro-E to macro-E,...)
about important details of bio-E. When we compare oeCmodification
with bio-E that is totally natural, the plausibility of bio-E is usually
over-estimated, as explained
in Principles
for a Logical Evaluation of Evolution.
As a theory, does oeCmodification
have a responsibility to be "more
different"? No. A "high contrast" with other
theories is not a requirement for a scientific theory. For example,
in most situations the predictions of Newton's classical mechanics and
Einstein's special relativity are almost identical. But we don't
demand that, if we are to take Einstein seriously, his theory must be modified
to make it differ from Newton's theory in other ways, for our convenience,
so we can more easily distinguish between his theory and Newton's theory,
using data that is easy to collect and analyze. Instead, it's more
important to use the criterion of perceived accuracy by
asking, "Based on empirical evidence and logical evaluation, does
a theory seem to match the way the world really is?"
Later, there is more about Evolutionary Predictions
and Retroductions.
a
transition from 7G to 7C, from evolution to design:
In a theory
of old-earth design, a scientist accepts the current consensus of
scientists about an old earth, but rejects the current consensus about
naturalistic evolution. Is this logically inconsistent? This question
inspired
another page that,
in the four paragraphs below, explains the difference between proponents of three
theories (young-earth creation, old-earth nondesign, and old-earth design)
when
we ask: What are the capabilities of historical science, for questions
about age and design?
When we ask questions about age, most young-earth flood geologists are super-skeptical about the ability of historical science (as in geology or astronomy) to reach any reliable scientific conclusions about history. They ask, "Were you there?", and declare that a "no" means "therefore you can't know much about ancient history." [the two old-earth views disagree]
Similarly, when we ask questions about
design, most proponents of non-design theories (proposing
a totally natural origin of life and development of complexity) are
super-skeptical about the ability of historical science to determine anything
about historical
design-directed
action by an agent, at least if the agent and action might have been supernatural.
By contrast, design theorists
are confident that scientists have developed, and will continue improving,
scientific methods (which are based on a logical
evaluation of observable
evidence) to cope with the challenges of
scientifically distinguishing between design and nondesign. As with
all science, for design questions we cannot obtain proof, but we can develop
a rationally
justified confidence
about "a
good way to bet."
Old-earth design theorists say that science can do more (when thinking about age-questions) than is claimed by skeptical young-earth flood geologists, and also that science can do more (when thinking about design-questions) than is claimed by opponents of design theories. Thus, there are differences between the claims of old-earth design (about what is science, re: age and design) and the claims (about what is not science) that are often made by proponents of young-earth and non-design theories.
Can
a theory of design be scientific? Many arguments against design theories
are just arguments against any theory in historical science (in areas like
biology, paleontology,
geology, or astronomy) about
the history of nature. Therefore,
to establish a foundation for deciding "Can design be scientific?" (in
Section 7C below), I have asked (in Section 7G above) the analogous question
for evolution.
For an overview of design theory (what
it is and isn't, what it does and doesn't claim, and why it can be scientific)
that will help you understand the following
section, you can read two pages — what
design is and design in
science — that explain ideas in 7A-7B and give
you a different perspective on 7C.
PRACTICAL
Questions
In a search for truth about nature,
a design theory can be useful because it might be
true. If design really was involved in the origin of a feature,
but we ignore this possibility (by refusing to consider evidence for design),
a false conclusion is unavoidable.
When design encourages
critical thinking about non-design, this can improve the accuracy
of our evaluations (for current non-design theories) and our speculations
(about future theories). A theory of design can
stimulate creative thinking and productive action by proponents of non-design (who
are motivated to defend and improve their theories, and find new experimental
support) and design. In this way, and
others, theories of design can help us improve our understanding of nature.
Design would have little impact on
the overall productivity of science, since most areas are not affected. And
many scientists will continue their non-design research even if they hear
a design claim that "maybe there is no non-design explanation." Proponents
of design want research about non-design to continue, because the goal
is to find truth; they want to supplement non-design research, not
replace it. { If your keys are not in the kitchen, can you find them
by searching in the kitchen? Perseverance and Flexibility }
Current scientific customs (with most
scientists accepting MN) are not necessarily optimal, because traditional
customs are decided by people, and "what now is" does not determine "what
should be in the future." MN is a choice, and we can ask, "Is
MN always wise?" If we're being practical, should we view science
as an artificial game with rules (which exclude
design) or a real-life activity with goals? {
The important difference between games and reality is illustrated by a Strong-Man
Contest. }
What about past failures of claims
for design? A current design theory should be judged on its own merit,
not the weakness of superficially similar theories in the past.
METHODOLOGICAL
Questions
Typically, questions about methods
are in four areas: history, agency, observability, and falsification.
HISTORY: The methods used in
design are similar to methods in other historical sciences, such as astronomy,
geology, archaeology, and evolutionary biology. Because most arguments
against the scientific status of design are also arguments against the
scientific status of any historical science, I suggest that you read the
first half of Section 7G — Can a theory of evolution
be scientific? — and then read the rest of this section.
AGENTS AND PREDICTION: When "what
happens" depends on the actions of an agent, this introduces an element
of unpredictability. But in a historical situation with agent action,
a scientist (in psychology, sociology, anthropology, archaeology, or forensics,
and maybe in origins) only has to determine what did occur,
not predict what will occur. In this situation,
the best explanation for "what did occur" is an agency
theory of design (proposing "agent action"), not a mechanistic
theory of non-design (proposing "only undirected natural process"). In
most ways, historical theories of design and evolution are analogous, but a
major difference is that intelligent design
is an agency theory, while
naturalistic evolution is a mechanistic theory. Which
type of theory is better? The
answer depends
on what actually happened in history, if we define
a "better" theory as one that more closely corresponds with the truth. If
agent-action did occur, an agency theory is better. If there was no
agency-action, a non-agency (mechanistic) theory is better.
OBSERVABILITY: Modern scientists
often infer the existence of an unobservable cause (an
electron, idea,...) due to the observable effects it
produces. Similarly, if we observe "signs of design" we can
infer design-directed action, even if the agent and action were not observed.
FALSIFICATION: Due
to the mutually exclusive relationship between non-design and design
(when they're carefully defined it's either one or the other), the status
of design can be increased or decreased by empirical evidence (by observations),
so
a
theory of
design is empirically responsive and is testable. Based
on a logical evaluation of observations, we can develop a logically
justified confidence in the falsity or truth of a design theory,
concluding that a design theory is probably true (if
all non-design theories seem highly implausible) or is
probably false (if one non-design theory seems highly plausible).
The Bottom Line: Inferences to
design can be scientifically justified.
For example, in Section 7A the "prime
number" design
theory (re: a sequence of 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17,...) is a
result of scientific thinking: You
observe a signal, creatively construct and critically evaluate theories,
and conclude
that design-directed action is more plausible
than undirected natural process. Scientists
propose design to explain a wide variety of features such as bird nests,
ant hills, prey killed by a predator, a human murder victim, paintings on
a cave wall, metal satellites in orbit, and faces on Mount Rushmore. In
many areas of science, a logical inference that "design-directed action
did occur" can be scientifically justified.
For most critics of design, the main
concerns are metaphysical, not methodological.
METAPHYSICAL Questions
MIRACLES: Does design
violate methodological naturalism? Maybe. A basic design theory,
claiming only that a feature was produced by design-action (which could
be either
natural design-and-construction or supernatural design-and-creation), does
not require miracles, but it does allow miracles. / And
science is compatible with occasional miracles, if the universe usually
operates according to normal natural patterns.
LIMITED CLAIMS: In
any area (radioastronomy, homicide, origins,...) an inquiry about design
is a two-stage process: first ask "Was
there design-directed action?" and then
investigate the details. We should evaluate a design theory
based on what it does claim (that design occurred) instead of what it does
not claim (that it can explain the "how, when, why, and who" details
of design-and-production).
DESIGN AND CREATION are not the same. A
design theory can be supplemented with details (about the designer's identity
and actions) to form a variety of theories about supernatural creation or
natural non-creation. A design theory
does not claim that we can distinguish between "creation design" and "non-creation
design" by scientific analysis, it just claims that "design did
occur." / analogy: A scientific conclusion that "it
happened by a natural process which appeared to be undirected" does
not require a metaphysical conclusion that "it happened without God." Similarly,
a scientific conclusion that "it was the result of design-directed
action" does not require a metaphysical conclusion that "God
did it."
METAPHYSICAL MOTIVATIONS: Even if a theory of design
(or non-design) is motivated by a desire to show that "God did it" (or "God
didn't do it"), this motivation should be irrelevant during theory evaluation. A
scientific evaluation should be based only on scientific evidence and logic; our
evaluations of a theory should not be influenced by our suspicions about the
motives of scientists who are proposing and defending the theory.
TRIVIAL Questions
Some arguments against design seem impressive
until you think about them, and then they seem trivial.
For example,
a claim that "in natural science, natural phenomena
and natural history should be explained by natural causes" is
trivial. It is just faulty circular logic (assuming "science
is natural" to conclude "science is natural") camouflaged
with verbal ambiguity (using "natural" to
mean "pertaining to nature" and also "normal-appearing").
It is also trivial to view science as
an artificial game with rules (which exclude
design) rather than a real-life activity with goals.
important questions:
Should we define the main goal of science as a
search for NATURAL explanations, or a search for
LOGICAL explanations? Of course, when we ask "Should science
be logical?", everyone agrees that YES is the answer. But disagreements
occur when we ask: If there is a conflict between logical and natural, which
criterion should have the higher priority? Should we be forced (by
methodological naturalism) to accept a "scientific conclusion" that
is less logical, simply because it is natural?
tough questions:
In Section 7B the concepts of proof (which
is impossible in science) and rationally justified confidence (which
is the practical goal in science) are illustrated by thinking about how we
can logically evaluate a design theory for the origin of life. What would
make this design theory unscientific? a claim that a natural formation
of life is extremely improbable? a perception (by others) that this claim
implies a non-natural cause? proposing a non-natural cause? Is
there any limit to the severity of criticism before a design theory becomes
unscientific? If severe criticism is accompanied by a proposal for a
new natural theory, does this make it scientific? Can we admit that "we
are far from finding the answer," but not "maybe there is no natural
answer"? Or, consistent with the restrictions of Closed Science,
should we control the thinking of scientists by removing their freedom to think
that "maybe..."?
my conclusion:
Some arguments against design are trivial,
while others (especially those about practical effects and methodology) are
more worthy, if only because they stimulate productive thinking and discussion. But
even though some arguments for Closed Science may seem strong initially,
I think the counter-arguments are stronger and more logical, and the closer
we examine Open Science, the better it looks.
a note to the reader: More
than any other section, 7C has been diminished in "conceptual content" during
its condensation into the medium-short version you've been reading. To
make it easier for you to explore the arguments and counter-arguments more
thoroughly, I've collected three versions of Section 7C (medium-short [it's
what you've been reading], medium-long, and long) into a 7C-page.
APPENDIX A. Illustrative
Examples (with Keys and Games) for Section 7C are in another
page that contains two sections: Evolutionary
Predictions and Retroductions Evolutionary theory can
be used to propose a theory-based scenario for a particular historical
period that spans time in a series of historical situations. An
initial situation, analogous to the initial conditions for an experimental
system in a laboratory experiment, includes the initial environments
and characteristics of one or more species. Intermediate situations
and a final situation are similarly defined. The entire episode
involves a sequence of situations: initial, intermediate(s), and final. |
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Part 1— Historical Science:
Is it scientific? Historical Science (pages
by other authors): Design for the Origin
of Life? Can a theory of evolution be scientific? (long version) Can a theory of design be scientific? (long version) other pages about Origins Questions by Craig Rusbult |
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