The "Apparent" Trap

From: Chris Cogan (ccogan@telepath.com)
Date: Sat Sep 23 2000 - 14:04:10 EDT

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    The primary rule of rational belief is:

          Accept all, but *only*, those ideas for which you
          have rationally adequate *cognitive* validation.

    However, most people include as a major premise in their epistemology
    the following rule:

          If something *appears* true,
          then it *is* true.

    Thus, a person who accepts this rule may believe that the Earth is flat,
    that TV magicians do real magic, that psychic surgery is real, that
    astrology is a sound science, that professional wrestling is real
    competition, that, when an actor appears to sing a song in a movie, it is
    always really the actor's voice coming out of the speakers, that God
    exists, that God *doesn't* exist, and so on. Basically, believing
    something because it is "apparently" true in this sense is believing
    something on *faith*, because one has not bothered to perform the
    cognitive activities necessary to validate that the idea is true or at least
    close enough to true to accept with strict qualifications.

    Does this approach work? Does faith in fact generally lead to true
    beliefs? Is this kind of apparent truth a reliable indication of *actual*
    truth? If it works, why do so many people who use this method get into
    conflicts over crucial ideas? If the method is reliable, then it should
    yield essentially the same results no matter who uses it. And, why is it
    that so *many* ideas that once "appeared" true to nearly everyone no
    longer appear true to so many people, even with respect to issues where
    it is obvious that the truth can't have changed over the years? Should
    we accept that the Earth has, in *fact* gone from flat to nearly
    spherical? Apparently.

    No, this method does not work. It's based on one's feelings, on
    unchecked "intuitions," on "just knowing," on desires, etc., not
    primarily on cognitive contact with reality. Even when a particular idea
    that one holds on faith *does* turn out to be true, it's basically
    accidental. In many cases, there is not much more chance of such a
    belief being true than there would be if the person simply accepted
    ideas on the basis of a coin flip. Indeed, in certain categories of ideas,
    the probability, in general, of such a belief being true is *less* than it
    would be if the person accepted ideas on the basis of a coin flip. This is
    especially true with respect to certain issues concerning probability, and
    with many ideas that many people accept largely because they are
    *attractive* and the person *wants* them to be true.

    Sadly, many people rely on faith most strongly in dealing with
    questions whose answers are most important. Thus, a person may make
    elaborate calculations and deeply ponder the facts in deciding which
    computer to buy, but base many of his basic and critically important
    philosophical ideas on faith, on whether they *feel* right, on whether
    they are "apparently" true, etc. Others pretty much rest *most* of their
    beliefs, regardless of significance, on faith, more or less
    indiscriminately. Of course, accepting ideas on faith is indiscriminate to
    begin with.

    Oddly, and logically bizarrely, many of these same people will tell you
    that their beliefs are *objectively* true, because *they* feel that they
    are true. Thus, many religious folk will attempt to persuade you that
    their particular God-of-the-Month God must *actually* exist because
    of how deeply they *feel* that they are in contact with Him. Despite
    the dismal historical empirical failure of faith to be reliable, and despite
    the lack of any specifiable reason for that particular person to believe
    that *his* faith is any better than the faith of those who disagree
    profoundly with him on the *same* type of basis (they deeply *feel*
    that their belief is true), such a person will continue to believe. It often
    does not even matter that the idea has been *proved* false, either by
    blatant empirical means, or by clear logic (there are still people who
    claim to have "squared the circle" using straight-edge and compass,
    there are still people who believe the Earth is flat, etc.).

    Why does this happen (and so often)? Because faith has no corrective
    mechanism aside from the death of the people involved. If a rational
    person makes a mistake and thinks that pi is 3, you can show him that
    this is not true. But, if a person believes on faith that pi is 3, he does
    not need to bother listening to your proof that pi is *not* 3, because he
    already "knows" that it is 3. Or, if he does "listen," he may simply not
    let himself understand the significance of what you are saying. Or, he
    may have so deeply corrupted his thinking skills with past "acts of
    faith" that he either cannot follow your demonstration, or believes,
    against his own observations, and his own logic, that there is some flaw
    in the demonstration that he just doesn't see. If you apply faith more
    diligently, more extensively, to the issue of whether pi is equal to 3, it
    won't make any difference, or, if it does make a difference, it may
    simply result in the person believing even *more* solidly that pi is 3,
    or that the Earth is flat, etc.

    In less severe cases, rational criticism or proof of the truth of an
    alternative may actually work, but you can't rely on this. The
    willingness to abandon reason to the extent of accepting ideas on faith
    to begin with is a bad sign. A rational person doesn't do that, so a
    person who *does* do that may well not be open to reason.

    But, if faith is so unreliable, why do so many people believe things on
    faith? Because they *first* believe on faith that faith is reliable. Faith is
    also supremely *egotistical*, because the person believes (on *faith*!)
    that *his* faith is reliable, even if he believes that nearly everyone
    else's is completely wrong. Of course, that's exactly what *they*
    believe, as well. In these cases, each person believes that there is
    something *special* about *his* acceptance of ideas on faith. If person
    A believes in a proposition P on faith, and person B believes a severely
    conflicting proposition Q on faith, and if you ask them both why they
    think *their* particular use of faith is reliable while the other's is not,
    they will each often give you some variant of the *same* answer,
    usually something like, "I just *know* I'm right," or "God says so," or
    "I know I'm right because my faith is pure," etc. When they confront
    each other, neither of them can say *anything* of significance in favor
    of his belief that the other one does not also say, with equal fervor. And
    both may definitely be honest in feeling certain of the truth of their
    belief.

    Some forms of faith dress themselves up and go around disguised (at
    least superficially) as reason. The various formal and informal fallacies
    in reasoning are cases of pseudo-reasoning that have just enough of the
    "look" of reason that many people who too casually examine ideas and
    arguments may see them as reason, even though they may have no
    cognitive value whatever and may actually *hinder* cognition. Many
    people accept such fatally flawed arguments as justification for beliefs.
    They do this sometimes honestly, sometimes because they actually
    believe on faith but feel that such arguments *do* justify their belief,
    and sometimes because they simply need something to give *other*
    people as justification, when they either know they believe on the basis
    of something else, or when they don't even *actually* believe the idea
    in question (but are, perhaps arguing for it on the basis of *other* ideas
    that they *do* believe, as when people argue for the existence of God
    because they believe that a belief in God somehow promotes morality --
    which it doesn't, but that's a different issue).

    You might think that science would be free of such abandonments of
    reason, but, in practice, it is not (though it does better than philosophy).
    However, science and scientists are *relatively* more rational than
    most people, at least about *science*, on average. And, people
    understand that science is *supposed* to be rational. Because of these
    factors, people who want scientists or others to accept ideas that are
    unscientific (or even anti-scientific) *as* science must go to *some*
    lengths to dress up their ideas in the guise of reason and scientific
    respectability.

    Thus, a person who wants you to accept the idea that silent praying
    over sick people in a hospital will help them get well may cite some
    badly flawed "study" as "evidence" (or even that it is *proof*) that this
    is the case. Why does he do this? Because he knows that many people
    won't accept the idea (or the suggested theism *behind* the idea)
    without something that at least *might* be a rational basis for belief. If
    prayer is supposed to make people prayed about/over healthier, you
    can't just *say*, "Praying over people in hospitals makes them
    healthier." No-sireee-Bob, you've gotta provide what the person is
    willing to take as a scientific basis for it. This can be done by citing
    "scientific" studies. It doesn't matter that the study is badly flawed.
    Indeed, it may not matter if such a study was ever even actually
    conducted at all. But *saying* that there is a scientific basis for the
    claim, and giving some salient detail (whether real or not) such as the
    name of the hospital or the number of people in both the prayed-over
    group and the control group could well be enough to convince many
    people.

    Thus, many people *believe* people like Dembski, Behe, Thaxton,
    Johnson, and so on, merely because they have that nice "patina" of
    rational discussion and scientific or other credentials, etc. It is not even
    necessary for many people to actually read and examine the claims and
    arguments of such people, if the conclusion is something they have a
    desire or tendency to believe anyway.

    What *apparently* holds them up is faith in the deeper ideas they hold,
    faith that tells them that they either cannot make any significant errors,
    or that they are unimportant because what they are arguing for is true
    *anyway*, and all that's important is to get other people to accept it,
    and if logic must be trampled to *death* to do this, that's okay.

    Well, it's *not* okay. Not only are ideas held on faith *frequently*
    completely false, even when they are nominally true, their lack of
    cognitive basis often means that they are grossly misunderstood as well,
    so that, in practice they may be no better than if they were simply
    outright false.

    Further, faith kills. It kills thought, it kills good judgment, it tends to
    make it's victims *stupid*. It destroys whole societies, it promotes war
    (because nations living on faith have no *rational* means of resolving
    disputes), it promotes mental illness (and, in fact *is* a kind of
    intellectual illness), it leads to horrendous public policy, it leads to
    genocide (as in Nazi Germany, for example), it leads to despotism,
    tyranny, dictatorship, totalitarianism, mass starvation (as of the twelve
    million or so peasant farmers in the early Soviet Union, and as in
    Ethiopia and elsewhere more recently), it leads people to refuse medical
    treatment that clearly has a chance of saving their lives or the lives of
    their children, and, in general, promotes death, destruction, and
    suffering.

    Faith kills *people* as well as rational thought, often by the tens of
    millions (as in Nazi Germany, Communist China, the Soviet Union,
    etc.). It kills because people who accept critical ideas on faith often
    accept them as absolute, and unquestionable, so that there is little or no
    room for discussion with those whose land they wish to take, or whose
    race or ethnic or religious background they find unacceptable. Since
    they won't listen to reason, they rarely *see* reason, and thus they may
    refuse to back down, regardless of the facts. Or, if they refrain from
    killing, they may still live in more or less constant needless strife
    because of their needless irrational reactions to the peaceful activities of
    other people (most people fall, to one degree or another, into this
    category politically).

    And, faith *profoundly* undercuts morality. Rational morality is the
    result of a *rational* understanding of human nature and human needs,
    and the development of guides to action based on that understanding,
    but faith is an attack on reason at it's very root. To accept a belief on
    faith, you must reject reason and rationality, because the primary rule of
    rational belief excludes faith and all such willingness to subvert
    cognition and facts for whims and wishes. Faith is a *fundamental*
    violation of rules of rational thought and belief, so any claim to
    "accepting" reason *and* faith is a claim to accept reason and the
    violation of reason at the same time.

    "Well," you may ask, "how is that relevant to the issue of Intelligent
    Design vs. pure naturalistic evolution?"

    It's not, directly, except that the issue would not even arise if people
    were not able to fool themselves and others with faith and bad
    reasoning so that they accept the religious and or philosophical beliefs
    without which no one except the truly mentally ill would otherwise
    accept and which provide the basis for ID theory. Bertvan tells us that
    design is apparent, though she does not say *why*, in objective factual
    terms, it is apparent to her, or why it mightn't be something else other
    than design that she's *misinterpreting* as design, etc. No, that's now
    how faith works. For her, *facts* are not important; *appearances* are
    what are important to her, because, with appearances (which,
    conveniently, can be whatever she wishes them to be), she can maintain
    her faith in design, in a perfect vicious circle of appearance supporting
    belief which then supports the appearance, with neither needing to have
    much of anything to do with facts of reality outside the circle.

    We see similar mechanisms at work in the case of Behe (with his
    egregiously illogical and anti-scientific dismissal of alternate pathways
    to IC structures), with Dembski (with his elaborate attempt to frame a
    theory of explanation filtering that will "just happen" to equate facts in
    nature with design by agency (as distinguished from "design" by natural
    forces), and Johnson pretending, against even elementary rules of
    reason, that naturalistic explanations and non-naturalistic (i.e.
    supernatural, theistic) explanations have the same initial
    epistemological footing (which would only be true if we had the same
    general kind and quality of evidence for the existence and nature of a
    supernatural realm as we do for the existence and nature of the natural
    world we live in on a daily basis).

    These three men are like Bertvan in their apparent faith (or is it
    dishonesty?), but they choose to dress it up so it can go out in public
    and fool many people into thinking that it's not faith but reason.
    Perhaps they are *so* unable to pay attention to their own reasoning
    that they *can't* question whether it's sound or not. I don't know. I
    *do* know that the errors they commit -- and stick by -- are so
    elementary that they are fodder for first-year logic and philosophy
    students. There is nothing subtle about these errors.

    When all this kind of detritus is cleared away, ID theory is exposed as
    little more than a bald assertion systematically propped up by non-facts
    and bad reasoning (because, given its nature and the currently available
    data, little good reasoning is available for it). Remember the old
    argument for the existence of God to the effect that, while each of the
    arguments for His existence might be individually invalid, if you
    gathered them all together, they made a pretty good case? Is this kind
    of argument any good? No: just as zero times a million is still zero; a
    dozen or two of bad arguments doesn't prove the conclusion. Reason
    doesn't work that way; there is no support from *essentially* unsound
    arguments for their conclusion, no matter how many of them you gather
    together. ID theory "support" appears to be a slight variation on this
    idea, in that it gathers together a whole slew of really bad arguments
    (while ignoring or denying their obvious flaws) and then pretends to
    have proved design (or shown it to be the best theory).

    But, since probably *none* of the arguments have any real probative
    value at all for the desired conclusion, the whole pyramid of
    argumentation amounts to a stupendous intellectual special effect that is
    really poorly done but which is nevertheless enough to impress many of
    the yokels. The "yokels" they seem to seek to appeal to are the same
    the people who think David Copperfield does *real* magic rather than
    stage illusions.

    Why? Because, in Bertvan's phraseology, it's *apparent* (to them) that
    Behe, Johnson, et al, are right. Reason need not apply.

    -- Chris Cogan



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