Re: What Would You Do to make evolution work?? (*Again*)

From: Chris Cogan (ccogan@telepath.com)
Date: Wed Sep 27 2000 - 03:50:16 EDT

  • Next message: Howard J. Van Till: "Re: What Would You Do to make evolution work?? (*Again*)"

    At 08:04 PM 09/26/2000, you wrote:
    >Ralph
    > >I find it interesting that the following relationship is true:
    >
    > >1 cubed = 1 squared
    > >1 cubed + 2 cubed = (1 + 2) squared i.e. 9=9
    > >1 cubed + 2 cubed + 3 cubed = (1+2+3) squared i.e. 36=36
    >
    > >Anyone who wants to carry this out farther will find that it
    > >continues in this vein. Now many people would (and do)
    > >see design in this. They regard this as the mathematical
    > >equivalent of Paley's watch. Numerology is very popular.>
    >
    > >But we have a pretty complete picture of the history of
    > >mathematics. It was not designed so that this pattern,
    > >and others like it, would work out. These patterns are
    > >in there by chance. The number system was not
    > >designed with them in mind.

    Chris
    Though I agree with the *point* you make here, I think the word "chance" is
    problematic in this context. It's chance from our point of view that
    mathematics just *happened* to work out this way, but it's *inherent* in
    the basic concept of quantity that this relationship obtains, so, in a
    logical sense, it's not chance at all. Given the nature of quantity, we
    cannot change this result, even if we wanted to design things so as to be
    different (we can, of course, make arbitrarily many systems of a *similar*
    nature that have different implications, but then the primary underlying
    idea would be something other than the concept of quantity).

    >Bertvan:
    >You seem confident that numerical relationships were not designed. Do you
    >consider this particular relationship more due to chance than others? In
    >any case, numerical relationships always existed, didn't they? Even before
    >there were human minds to understand them?

    Chris
    Yes, even before (or independently of) *God's* mind and choices (were God
    to exist).

    Bertvan
    >Do mathematical systems exist
    >independtly of the human mind or were they created by human intellignece?

    Chris
    A mathematical system as a complex set of relationships among facts would
    "exist" regardless of minds or not. But, a mathematical system as a complex
    of *ideas* would, of course, require a mind in order to exist (though a
    book presenting a mathematical system could continue to exist and to
    implicitly continue to "contain" such a system even after it's author was
    dead).

    Bertvan
    >Complex biological systems, on the other hand, came into exisence. At one
    >time, they did not exist on earth. I don't know if we could claim
    >mathematical relationships "created" in the same way.

    Chris
    No, they're not. But, the point is that these relationships are *also* not
    *designed*, whether by God or anyone else. Thus, complex, rational systems
    *can* exist as a complex of factual relationships, even though they are
    *not* designed. Similar conclusions can be drawn from logic.

    More importantly, they can be drawn from physics and other sciences.
    Physics *implies* complex, rational systems as possible structures. It
    also, along with mathematics and information theory, implies that simple
    things can be made into complex things a little at a time. Thus, while each
    letter Shakespeare wrote down was a small addition to his works, the entire
    body of his work was achieved by just such small steps. Note that I'm not
    claiming that Shakespeare's work was not designed, but only that it was
    built as a large number of small steps.

    That Shakespeare's work as a whole, is complex is hardly to be debated.
    What's left to claim? Ah: That the *same* small steps, if they occurred
    randomly, along with trillions of others, would not lead to the production
    of such a system. But, it would. Here's how: Assume that the entire body of
    Shakespeare's work is N letters, numerals, spaces, and punctuation marks
    long. Then, to generate the works of Shakespeare, all we have to do is
    generate *every* string of such letters, numerals, etc. that is
    theoretically possible. Since Shakespeare's work *is* both possible (it
    exists) and N such characters long, Shakespeare's work must necessarily be
    at least *one* of these strings.

    This is true even though it is complex and, some would say, rational, and
    even a kind of system.

    The same considerations apply to any complex, rational system. Just
    generate *all* possible assemblages of the requisite size and with the
    requisite *simple* parts, and, voila!, that complex, rational system will
    be among them. It *can't* not be, unless it is simply logically impossible
    for it to exist at all, unless it is a logically contradictory thing.

    Nature does not, of course, try *every* possible variation, except maybe at
    the start or in very narrowly defined classes of cases. But, it can try
    trillions and trillions of them, increasing size and complexity of some a
    little at a time, as "good" variations happen to occur. This means that we
    don't have to save *every* variation that is produced. We need only "save"
    the "rational" ones (the ones that have attributes that make them and their
    continued existence compatible with their environments and their internal
    structure) and reproduce it enough times, because, *eventually*, other
    small changes will occur that increase complexity while preserving rationality.

    Thus, even if we don't get the biological equivalent of Shakespeare's
    works, we *will* get complex, rational systems as long as quite a few are
    *possible* (and, obviously, a great many *are* possible) and they are not
    specifically selected out or selected out by extinction of the gene pool.
    There is little else that can happen as long as some of these small steps
    toward more complexity are *also* of survival value.

    It occurs to me that you may be thinking that complex, rational systems are
    numerically very rare among the set of all *possible* systems of the same
    parts. But, this is not true. As you can see from what little biological
    diversity there is, the number of possible complex, rational systems is
    very large indeed. And that's *not* counting the complex, rational systems
    that were nevertheless unable to remain viable. People are complex,
    rational systems (in a certain narrow sense of "rational"). Yet, there are
    *billions* of them. And they are all *different* (as far as we can tell),
    despite being complex, rational systems. Thus, evolution does not have to
    wait for just exactly *one* variation that will increase complexity while
    preserving rationality; it can settle, at any given time, and even in the
    case of any given organism or mated pair of organisms, for any of possibly
    many *millions* of variations. Even organisms as simple as bacteria *can*
    survive and prosper with any of a large number of possible variations.

    Remember, for evolution to work in this way, it does not have to achieve
    its complex, rational systems as it has apparently done so, because there
    were billions or trillions of *alternative* complex rational systems it
    could generate instead. For example, perhaps with the switching of a couple
    of base pairs 3.8 years ago, *our* place would be occupied by some creature
    that was radically different and yet also *similar* ecologically. Just as
    there are billions of possible human beings, there are billions of other
    possible complex rational systems that could be generated but that haven't
    been.

    Put another way, while a great many biological organisms that exist may be
    complex and rational, by no means do *all* logically possible complex
    rational biological organisms exist. If you ignore what *doesn't* exist in
    your attempts to understand why what *does* exist has the overall
    "statistical" attributes it does, you will almost *certainly* arrive at
    false conclusions. This is because the "sample" of complex biological
    systems we see is an *extremely* biased sample. Why? Because it shows us
    *only* the ones that survived. Even fossils show us only the ones that (in
    general) either survived or were the immediate offspring of ones that did.
    Thus, the same kind of bias that you would have if you just examined
    *today's* life on Earth and ignored *past* life on Earth is made *vastly*
    worse when you ignore the variations that *never* survived, or that never
    even *occurred* (because the organisms that would have been their parents
    did not survive). If you fill out the tree of variations with all the ones
    that no longer exist and/or that *never* existed, you will have four types
    of branches, "twigs," and leaves:

    1. Those that are the examples of life we see today.
    2. Those that *once* existed.
    3. Those that could have existed insofar as their structure would have
    allowed them to continue existing (at least for a while) if they had
    occurred to begin with.
    4. Those that were *not* rational (biologically) and which therefore could
    not continue to exist because of internal biological defects. This would
    include all possible DNA variants that could not "instruct" the molecules
    in a cell in order to cause the cell to divide, or that could not even
    serve as the information-basis for the survival of the cell itself. It
    would include all the DNA that simply made no biological sense, regardless
    of its complexity (or even of a certain organizational rationality).

    Of all complexity in organisms or genotypes, you will have the following
    classification:

    1. Complex rational systems that survive or that survived for a while in
    the past.
    2. Complex rational systems that get excluded after being generated, for
    whatever reason.
    3. Complex rational systems that do not even get generated, because
    variations are not sufficiently random and/or the populations of parent
    organisms is not large enough to ensure complete coverage of all possible
    variations.
    4. Complex *irrational* systems that can't survive biologically.

    The largest category by far is the latter. The second largest is the third.
    The smallest is the first, but even *it* has contained millions of species,
    all built on one basic information molecule type (DNA). If we include
    information molecules *other* than DNA, or radically different ways of
    using DNA, the third category might be beyond normal calculation. The
    fourth category would be even larger still, but, no matter how we slice it,
    the number of possible (biologically coherent) complex rational systems
    (i.e., organisms of distinct species) is still an astronomical number.

    Can random variation produce complexity by cumulative adding to existing
    not-so-complex structures. Yes. Can it produce complex *rational*
    structures this way? Yes, because it produces so many attempts and because
    there are so *many* possible complex rational biological structures; out of
    billions of instance of variation, it only needs *one* to increase
    complexity (slightly) while preserving biological rationality (at least
    enough for the resulting organism to survive and reproduce). With a large
    enough population and with enough generations, millions upon millions of
    variations get applied.

    With sexual recombination, variations can occur independently in one
    population and then end up together in all members of a later population of
    descendants. If each of these variations increases complexity a little,
    both together will normally increase complexity somewhat *more* than either
    one separately. In a large enough population, many novel variations may
    occur in each generation and be recombined in many millions of ways with
    other genes in later generations, many of them increasing the overall
    complexity of the organism (and/or the genotype) considerably. Evolution
    overcomes the "six monkeys" effect by producing large numbers of variations
    and filtering so that the ones that don't work are excluded from further
    participation. All further variations are applied *only* to genotypes that
    have *already* survived and which are therefore biologically rational. And
    then, *those* variations are filtered. And, at least in principle, many of
    the *surviving* variations could be increases in complexity without a
    decrease in biological rationality (perhaps even an *increase* in
    biological rationality).

    Thus, *unless* there are special circumstances, special factors that
    *prevent* evolution from building complex systems, the complexity of the
    requirements of real world survival all but *guarantees* that some
    organisms that actually exist will be very complex indeed. And, all the
    ones that actually continue to exist will be basically biologically
    rational (because no others *can* survive).

    Basically, it's mathematically *extremely* unlikely that there would be no
    evolutionary paths to complex, biologically rational organisms, as long as
    there is a large population of slightly simpler organisms (or pre-biotic
    "thingies") prior to each of a large number of generations. Complex,
    biologically *rational* organisms are a subset of complex organisms. Since
    complexity can be easily achieved by merely adding more random material to
    existing DNA, the only question left is whether it can be biologically
    *rational*. Mathematically, random changes *must* occasionally be
    biologically rational. If those occasional events are perpetuated via
    genotype reproduction, then, eventually *more* biologically rational
    variations will randomly occur and "stick" with the prior ones, until a
    large system of such small changes is built up.

    If you still claim otherwise, please tell us *how* it could be otherwise.
    If you choose randomly from a pile of jigsaw pieces to add to the one
    you've already started with, eventually you will *happen* to hit upon one
    of the correct next pieces to fit with the one you've already got. You can
    do the entire puzzle this way, with no more intelligence needed than the
    mechanical ability to recognize when a piece fits the pieces already in
    place. That's what evolution does. It picks a variation and tries to put it
    with the pieces already present. If it "fits," it is generally kept. If it
    clashes, *other* variations are tried until one *does* fit. Just as a
    jigsaw puzzle with a billion pieces would be a complex and rational system
    (as could be determined by looking at the picture on the front of the box,
    if we had a box big enough for a billion pieces of a jigsaw), and yet could
    easily be put together by enough repeated trials of randomly selected
    pieces, so naturalistic evolution just keeps "trying" variations and
    keeping the ones that fit (i.e., that work). Because evolution is a
    branching process, not all evolution is toward complexity, but *some*
    definitely *is* toward complexity.

    So, if you *still* claim that it won't work, can you try to tell us why
    not? Do you *deny* that a *complex* and rational (i.e., coherent,
    well-fitting-together pieces) jigsaw puzzle (or an even more complex
    three-dimensional puzzle) could be put together by the process I described
    above?

    Actually, the biological case is better than the jigsaw puzzle, because
    there's only *one* way to correctly assemble a jigsaw puzzle that
    reconstructs the original picture. But there may be many trillions of ways
    to make complex biologically rational organisms, counting *all* possible
    paths from the very simplest to any specified *level* of complexity. There
    seem to be *many* organisms at the level of complexity of a dog, for
    example, including many *different* dogs. But only *one* good reproduction
    of the original picture in the average jigsaw puzzle. And yet, a blindly
    mechanical process that has only the "smarts" to *recognize* (not
    intelligently *choose*) correct pieces (and even then only when it tries to
    put each piece in place) can build a jigsaw puzzle of nearly any imaginable
    complexity. So, *why*, with so many *more* functional possibilities, would
    you deny that complex living organisms could not be constructed a little at
    a time by "trying" *many* variations?



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