A wager about biology in the year 2059

Tim Ikeda (tikeda@sprintmail.hormel.com)
Sun, 05 Sep 1999 12:56:22 -0400

Quoted by Stephen:
[...]
>"Of course time will tell, but Johnson believes that by 2059
>(the bicentennial year of Darwin's "Origin of the Species"),
>and possibly as early as 2019, we will be celebrating the
>demise of Darwinism, and evolutionists will be wondering what
>went wrong?
[...]

I'll put $100 into a wager that naturalistic (methodological, of
course) evolution will not be overturned by the time 2059
rolls around.

We'll each put $100 into a savings bond (or some similar device),
and lock it into a trust which pays out the combined principle and
accumulated interest of both contributions to the winner's
organization of choice. Evolutionists win if naturalistic
biological evolution is not overturned. Creationists win if
intelligent, interventionistic design (ie. something besides
natural causes at work in the biological history of life), is
determined to have played decisive role.

I propose that should evolutionists win this wager, the proceeds
go to a beer-bash for evolutionary biologists at the "Panda's
Thumb" (or equivalent drinking establishment). Perhaps creationists,
should they win, would prefer finger sandwiches and a non-alcoholic
sparkling apple cider reception at the P. Johnson biological research
building in Berkeley.

We can work out the exact wording later. No doubt Phil knows
a lawyer who could easily put the arrangements together.

Who wants to match this or contribute to either side? I'd be
happy to also place a side-wager that naturalistic evolution
won't be overturned by 2019 (I'm more likely to be around to
see the results in that case).

Regards,
Tim Ikeda
tikeda@sprintmail.hormel.com
(despam address before use)

PS - I'm kicking myself for not thinking of proposing a similar
wager to Johnson over the causal role of HIV in AIDS (another
case where Phil made a prediction about a hypothesis that would
be dropped by more "sober scientists" in the future).