4A. Do we have evidence
for an old earth-and-universe?
A Wide Variety of Abundant
Evidence
Young-earth theories of flood geology propose that a catastrophic global flood — with turbulent fast-moving currents that eroded and transported the massive amounts of sediment required to form huge rock formations — produced most of the earth's geology and
fossil record. But theory-based predictions (about what we should observe, if there was a global flood) don't match what we actually do observe when we carefully examine geological formations
and the spatial arrangement (both vertically and horizontally) of plant and
animal fossils
within this
geological
record. Thus, flood geology fails the central test in scientific method — the logical use of reality checks to compare "the way a theory claims the world is" with "the way the world really is" — because our observations show that the world of flood geology does not match the world of reality.
Although
young-earth science does make some valid claims for the geological importance
of catastrophic events, this does not contradict the old-earth theories of
modern geology, which propose a combination of slow-acting uniformitarian
processes and fast-acting catastrophic events such as volcanoes,
earthquakes, and floods.
Evidence from a wide range
of fields — including the study of sedimentary rocks, the geological column, the fossil record in geological context, coral reefs, and seafloor spreading (caused by continental drift) with magnetic reversals, plus (in non-geological fields of science) radioactive dating, genetic molecular clocks, the development of stars, starlight from faraway galaxies, and more — indicates that the earth and
universe are billions of years old.
The Principle of Multiple
Independent Confirmations
Because "a long time" is an
essential component of many theories that in other ways (such as the domains
they explain and the components they include) are relatively independent,
and because of the logical relationships involved, suspicions of circular reasoning are not justified. With
this independence, the old-earth evidence is not like a "house of cards" where
if one part falls it all falls. It is more like a strong house with
a ceiling supported in many ways: by concrete walls reinforced by steel
rods, plus granite pillars, wood beams,... Each support would be
sufficient by itself, but when combined the support is even stronger. The
young-earth task of pulling down the "old-earth house" would require discarding
much of modern science. This isn't likely to happen, nor does it
seem to be a desirable goal.
This principle of multiple
independent confirmations is an essential part of scientific method, and is very useful in the logical evaluation of scientific theories. Its
reliability — as an indicator of probable truth when (as in questions about age) the confirmations are multiple, independent, and strongly supported by evidence — is confirmed by logic
and also by its excellent "track record" in the history
of science. This powerful principle of science has convinced
almost all scientists that the earth and universe are extremely old,
and that scientific evidence-and-logic provides very strong support
for this conclusion.
Four Young-Earth Responses
Proponents of young-earth
views typically challenge the conclusions of modern science in four
ways.
Current Science: They
challenge the claims that scientific evidence-and-logic indicates an
old earth and an old universe. Are they successful? We encourage
you to examine the evidence for yourself, and logically evaluate it. When
you do this, don't be satisfied with "hand waving" generalities; pay
attention to important details and ask, "When all of the
evidence is considered, what explanation seems most satisfactory?" AGE
OF THE EARTH — SCIENCE (Physics, Geology, and Astronomy).
Future Science: They explain
that — compared with old-earth science that has more scientists working
on it — their young-earth science is less fully developed, and with
further development it will become more satisfactory and their theories will
match observations more closely.* Paul
Nelson & John Mark Reynolds, in Three Views on Creation and Evolution, adopt
this humble approach. {* But
I don't think this optimism is justified, since the abundant evidence for
an old universe occurs in so many different areas, covering a wide range
of phenomena, and is strong in each area. } {more about the
spectrum of young-earth views}
Historical Science: Is it
impossible to know, with confidence, what happened in the distant past?
Apparent Age: Did God create
a universe that appears to be old, but actually is young?
You can learn more about
the last two questions in the next two sections.
4B. Can historical science be "scientific" and
reliable?
Even though we cannot directly
observe events in ancient history, can we — by a logical analysis
of historical evidence (in sciences like archaeology, geology, radiometric
dating,
and astronomy) — reach reliable conclusions about what happened
in the past, on the earth and in other parts of the universe?
Most young-earth creationists say
NO. They challenge the credibility of all historical sciences that claim
the evidence indicates an old earth and universe. They ask "Were
you there? Did you see it?", and imply that "NO" means "then
you can't know much about it." They are trying
to "discredit the witness" that is testifying against their views. Is
the witness reliable?
Scientific Goals and
Methods
For most scientists, the main goal of science is
to find truth. They want to construct theories that are true,
that correspond with reality by correctly describing
what really happens in nature.
Their main method of logical
reasoning is a "reality check" that lets them test a theory, as
shown below: OBSERVATIONS (from a physical experiment) are used, along
with imagination, to generate a THEORY, which can be used
to make PREDICTIONS (in a mental experiment by asking "if this theory
is true, what will we observe?") so they can do a REALITY CHECK by
comparing OBSERVATIONS with PREDICTIONS, to test whether "the way
it really is" matches "the way
they think it is" (assuming the theory is true).
Is there a scientific method? If "method" means "a
single method, used in the same way by all scientists at all times," the
answer is NO, so we should not talk about The Scientific Method.
Are there scientific methods? Yes. The
main methods of scientific thinking, including the foundation of science — the "reality
checks" made by observing reality and using logic — are
used by all scientists. But details change with time and culture,
are personally customized by individuals, and vary from one
area of science to another.
Operations Science and Historical
Science
Some variations
in methods are due to differences between operations
science (to study the current operation of nature, what
is happening now) and historical science (to
study the history of nature, what happened in the past). Both
types of science are similar in most ways, especially in their
use of scientific logic, but there are minor differences. { Some
young-earth creationists try to contrast historical origins
science with empirical science,
but this is wrong because historical science is also based on
empirical observations. }
Although repeatable controlled
lab experiments can be done in operations science, this is
not possible in historical science, which uses uncontrolled
field experiments to gather data about historical events. Sometimes
the limitations of historical data provide a reason for caution about conclusions. But
this challenge has inspired scientists to develop strategies that reduce
the practical impact of data limitations, and historical sciences are authentically
scientific.
In historical science,
one effective strategy is to use repeated observations of similar events. For
example, observations of many Cepheid stars from many parts of the
universe have shown that all Cepheids have similar properties, which
makes them useful for measuring astronomical distances, which lets
us calculate the time it takes (billions of years) for
light to travel from these stars to the earth.
Usually, theories in historical
science are related to, and are consistent with, theories in operations
science, and a historical theory claims to describe WHAT happened
WHEN, and (if possible) to explain HOW it happened. Of
course, a historical scientist only has to determine what did occur
in the past, not predict what will occur in the future. { But prediction and retroduction are
logically equivalent, as explained in my page about historical
science. }
In operations science, scientists
can logically infer the existence of things they cannot observe, if an unobservable
cause produces observable effects. For
example, electrons and ideas cannot be observed, but modern theories
propose electrons (in
chemistry) and ideas (in psychology). Why? Because our observations
are explained in the most satisfactory way by theories proposing the
existence of unobservable electrons and ideas.
Similarly, in historical science
we can logically infer the existence of events we did not observe, if these
unobserved events produced evidence we can observe. Even if an event
(or process) was not directly observed — no, we weren't there and we
didn't see it — at a later time we can directly observe the evidence
it produced, and this can help us understand how and when the event (or process)
occurred.
Can historical science
produce reliable conclusions?
Yes, it can. But
does it? This depends on the situation and the claim. We
should carefully examine the evidence-and-logic for a particular situation,
and try to
determine the scientifically justifiable level
of confidence in the reliability of a specific claim about that
situation.
Sometimes the limitations of historical
data provide a reason for caution. And sometimes — especially when
we have multiple
independent confirmations — we have reasons for confidence.
But radical relativists who challenge
the reliability of science — including postmodern skeptics who challenge
all science, and creationists who challenge historical science — claim
that in science the evidence is usually inadequate, so conclusions are usually
determined by nonscientific beliefs.
For example, John Morris (president
of the Institute for Creation Research) asks, "Can
man, with a brain and reasoning powers distorted by the curse, evaluating only
a portion of the evidence, accurately reconstruct the history of the universe? Should
his historical reconstructions [interpretations of nature] be put on a higher
plane than [interpretations of] Scripture? (source)
(with clarifications [in square brackets] added)" Evidently, their
old-earth science (their
interpretation of nature) is hindered by distorted reasoning powers, but his
young-earth theology (his own interpretation of scripture) is not hindered. He
proposes radical relativism in one area (for some people) but not in another
area (for other people, including himself).
An Invitation to Examine
the Evidence
Most scholars, including
myself and other members of ASA, think radical relativists are
exaggerating the logical difficulties, and the basic foundation
of historical science — the logical evaluation of empirical
evidence — provides
a reliable way to learn about the fascinating world created by
God. We encourage you to evaluate the evidence and arguments
in AGE OF THE EARTH:
SCIENCE and decide for yourself the extent to which different
claims are scientifically supported.
And you can examine
scriptural evidence in the next FAQ, What
does Bible-information say about age?
4C. Did God create
a young universe that looks old?
Multiple
Independent Confirmations "have
convinced almost all scientists that the earth and universe are extremely
old." The evidence is impressive, but can we believe
what we see?
False Appearance of Old
Age — Why and How
Usually, theories proposing
a young earth also propose a young
universe in which everything is less than ten thousand years
old. But light is reaching us from distant stars, so far away
that it would take billions of years for the starlight to reach us. How
can this occur in a young universe?
Most proponents of a young universe
claim that God created the universe as a mature creation with appearance
of age that makes some features (or all features) appear to be extremely
old even though the actual age is young. According to this theory of apparent
age (AA), God provided a suitable environment for the first humans
by creating a universe that would be immediately functional, with mature
humans (not helpless newborn babies), complete ecosystems, our energy-giving
sun, and starlight created "in transit to us" instead of being released from
a shining star.
If God was not interested in the pre-human
history of nature, He could decide to skip it, just as we "fast forward" through
the boring parts of a long videotape. How?
Christian theism includes a belief that God continually generates-and-sustains
the universe to keep it
going. With
a single divine thought-command, God could use His generating/sustaining
power to instantly create the
smoothly running universe we now observe; and what we would have
seen at the beginning of history is analogous to a movie that begins
in the middle of an action scene, without showing everything leading
up to the action.
Theological Questions
IF the universe
was created recently, then some appearance of age — mature humans,
ecosystems, sun, and more, including starlight so early
humans could enjoy the beauty of a star-filled night sky — is essential-AA that
would be necessary to produce immediate functionality. But some
appearances of age don't seem necessary, and this nonessential-AA raises
a theological question: Would an honest God create the universe
with detailed historical evidence indicating the occurrence of events
that never occurred?
For example, in 1987 scientists
observed "detailed starlight" coming from 170,000 light-years away,
with characteristics changing in a way that corresponds to the sequence of
events during a supernova explosion. Should scientists conclude that
this supernova-event really did occur, or that it's part of an apparent
history (created by God) about events that "would have happened
in an old universe" but never really happened? By contrast,
an old universe can actually be the age it appears to be, with
only actual history.
There seems to be no reason for
creating starlight with intricate supernova details, since these details wouldn't
have any practical function for Adam and Eve in Eden. But maybe a detailed
apparent history is useful now, because it gives us accurate data about cause-effect
relationships in nature. This data can let us construct reliable theories
about nature, to help us make rational decisions about our stewardship of nature.
Three Apparent Histories
Different theories propose an apparent history with
differing amounts of nonessential details, with appearance of age that is minimal,
total, or partial:
Minimal Apparent Age, limited
to features that would be necessary for immediate functionality.
Total Apparent Age, with
God designing the universe, running a "thought experiment" that was
totally complete and accurate, and then creating a universe with a total apparent
history, with details about everything that would have happened since the
beginning, even though most of it never happened. God created the universe,
a few thousand years ago, so it looks exactly the same as if it had been
created billions of years ago in an expansion we call the Big Bang.
Partial Apparent Age, with
some nonessential apparent age but not a total apparent history. In
a common view, God created an apparent history that did
not include fossils — since these would imply that animals died
before humans sinned — but did include other nonessential details
about what would have happened in an older universe.
Scientific Testing
With minimal-AA, most events
and all nonessential details, including supernova starlight, were produced
by actual history, not apparent history. Therefore,
minimal-AA must challenge almost all old-universe conclusions in every
area of historical science, including astronomy.
By contrast, with total-AA
and perfect "antiquing" it would be impossible to scientifically
distinguish between a universe that actually is billions of
years old and a universe created 6000 years ago (or 5 minutes ago)
that just appears to be old. But even though AA cannot
be tested, most young-earth advocates combine AA (with a false observed
age for everything created in the first 144 hours) and flood geology
(with a true observed age for all features produced in a global flood). A
hybrid theory of "AA plus flood geology" can be tested, and many of
its predictions do not agree with the scientific evidence.
Should
a young-universe scientist challenge the credibility of conventional
science, including Big Bang astronomy and more, if — due to a superb
"antiquing with appearance of old age" by God — this is what the scientific
evidence indicates?
An Evaluation
In my opinion, theories proposing apparent age are
worthy of careful, respectful consideration. But when all things are considered,
I think we can find strong theological reasons to prefer a theory of actual
age, with
God
creating
an
old
universe
that "began
from the beginning" so what we see is the actual history of what really
happened.
You can see other opinions in APPEARANCE
OF AGE: THEOLOGICAL QUESTIONS.