Re: chance and selection

From: Chris Cogan (ccogan@telepath.com)
Date: Tue Dec 05 2000 - 22:57:10 EST

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    At 02:20 PM 12/05/2000 -0500, you wrote:
    >From: ccogan@telepath.com (Chris Cogan)
    >Chris:
    > >First, the idea that chance can *never* (as Bertvan puts it) result in an
    > >improvement in the genes of an organism is like the idea that one can
    > >*never* get the right answer on a multiple-choice test question by randomly
    > >selecting an answer (based on rolling a die, for example).
    >
    >Bertvan:
    >I quite agree that one might randomly get the right answer to a
    >mulitple-choice test, but I doubt you'd randomly get a correct answer
    >consisting of several hundred words. Most biolgical systems are specified
    >by thousands of nucleotides.

    What if there were millions or even *billions* of "right" answers (as, in
    the real world of evolution, there *are*)? What if the "right" answer is
    "make part x somewhat larger (or smaller, or wider, or whatever -- as, in
    the real world, it *often* is)? What if the "right" answer is, "make this a
    little *different* from that"? In evolution, there is *no* such thing,
    except very rarely, of *THE* right answer, a few hundred words. Suppose you
    have an organism with a genome of a few thousand nucleotides. The *right*
    answer is *any* change that enables it to reproduce that genome more
    effectively. For few thousand nucleotides, this could mean that the number
    of changes that would benefit the genome might be in the neighborhood
    (using *very* conservative assumptions), of a few *trillion* different
    changes, any *one* of which would be beneficial to it, even if it involved
    doing nothing more than replacing *one* nucleotide with another, and some
    spot somewhere in that string of a few thousand nucleotides. You have a
    computer. Write a Basic program to do the math, or borrow someone's pocket
    calculator. Check it out for yourself. It's not even *difficult* math.
    Ordinary high-school kids do more sophisticated calculations every day.

    It's absolutely amazing that a person who claims to believe that even a
    simple cell is intelligent (perhaps even *more* intelligent than humans)
    has not devoted her life to the study of biology. One might think that a
    person with such a belief would be spending practically every spare minute
    of her life *studying* life, *studying* intelligence, *studying* how life
    works, *studying* the mathematics necessary to understanding how life
    (intelligent or not) works, *studying* how evolution works in the real,
    physical, tangible world.

    But, you don't. Your keep yourself almost totally free of any knowledge of
    any of biology and the rest of these topics. Just how *do* you square that
    with your belief in the mystical/magical, undetectable intelligence of the
    cell, that can redesign its own genes with no apparent access to computers,
    libraries of information on physics and chemistry, without blackboards or
    laboratories. Your view implies that a single cell a few minutes old has
    more knowledge and intelligence than the entire human race from the
    beginning of its existence till now, yet you show an absolutely
    *astonishing* lack of any interest beyond the absolutely most shallow and
    casual in the actual workings of cells, genes, enzymes, or anything else
    that cells do.

    If your claim is true, it would be *the* single most amazing discovery of
    human history. If it were true, and could be established, it would change
    *everything* about our understanding of the universe. It would change
    physics and chemistry, nearly all genetic principles would have to be
    abandoned overnight, and even astronomy and cosmology would be turned
    inside out by the changes that would be required in physics.

    But, strangely, you show no more signs of serious interest in *actually*
    studying cell biology than a high-school student who knows only that "cell"
    is only a word that goes with "phone," and nothing else. You keep yourself
    almost totally free of any knowledge of any of biology and the rest of
    these topics. Just how *do* you square that with your belief in the
    mystical/magical, undetectable intelligence of the cell, that can redesign
    its own genes with no apparent access to computers, libraries of
    information on physics and chemistry, without blackboards or laboratories?
    Your view implies that a single cell a few minutes old has more knowledge
    and intelligence than the entire human race from the beginning of its
    existence till now, yet you show an absolutely *astonishing* lack of any
    interest beyond the absolutely most shallow and casual in the actual
    workings of cells, genes, enzymes, or anything else that cells do.



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