Re: [asa] Origin of Life CALCUULATION

It's a shockingly low probability, and computed by an evolutionist as well
and not an Intelligent Design person.

But off the top of my head (without going into the details of the paper),
would not the obvious response be that he has the wrong theory about how
life must have started? IOW if life started in THIS way, then either it's a
miracle or a multiverse, but should not science look for more likely ways of
life starting up rather than plumping for an untestable (scientifically)
hypothesis?

Iain

On 9/3/07, Lawrence Johnston <johnston@uidaho.edu> wrote:
>
>
> As most of you know, the Biologists often list the "Origin of Life" as one
> of their most important unsolved problems. Nobody has come up with a
> plausible scenario of how it might have happened.
>
> All of the proposed scenarios assume that very improbable events must have
> happened, especially improbable in view of the observation that life
> started very soon after the primordial Earth's surface cooled off from the
> molton state.
>
> Now we have a calculation, by a biologist, of a numerical estimate of the
> probability of the origin of life on an earth-like planet. I have been
> looking for just such a thing for many years, and this is the first. The
> web site is
>
> http://www.biology-direct.com/content/2/1/15
>
> The author, Eugene Koonin, is on the staff of NIH.
>
> In this article he first discusses at length the factors to be considered,
> and then in an appendix does the actual calculation.
>
> He chooses to calculate a model assuming "RNA First" and puts in
> admittedly wild guesses for various parameters. But he puts in all his
> steps and assumptions, so that we can choose our own assumptions and see
> how much difference it wud make in the result. His probability number is
> (gasp)
>
> Probability = 10^-1018.
>
> In the body of the paper he tries to prepare people for this low
> probability by talking of the "Many Universes" theory. He doesn't
> mention
> the fact that we have no evidence for the existence of other universes.
>
> For those still in the workforce, have a good holiday. Thanks for helping
> to support me, long retired and drawing Social Security.
>
> Lawrence H. Johnston
>
> "He has made everything beautiful in its time.
> He has also set eternity in the hearts of men"
> - - Ecclesiastes 3:11, NIV trans
>
> ============================================================
> Lawrence H. Johnston home: 917 E. 8th st.
> professor of physics, emeritus Moscow, Id 83843
> University of Idaho (208) 882-2765
> Fellow of the American Physical Society
> http://www.uidaho.edu/~johnston/HOMEPA~1.HTM ===============
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

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