[asa] Origin of Life CALCUULATION

As most of you know, the Biologists often list the "Origin of Life" as one
of their most important unsolved problems. Nobody has come up with a
plausible scenario of how it might have happened.

All of the proposed scenarios assume that very improbable events must have
happened, especially improbable in view of the observation that life
started very soon after the primordial Earth's surface cooled off from the
molton state.

Now we have a calculation, by a biologist, of a numerical estimate of the
probability of the origin of life on an earth-like planet. I have been
looking for just such a thing for many years, and this is the first. The
web site is

http://www.biology-direct.com/content/2/1/15

The author, Eugene Koonin, is on the staff of NIH.

In this article he first discusses at length the factors to be considered,
and then in an appendix does the actual calculation.

He chooses to calculate a model assuming "RNA First" and puts in
admittedly wild guesses for various parameters. But he puts in all his
steps and assumptions, so that we can choose our own assumptions and see
how much difference it wud make in the result. His probability number is
(gasp)

Probability = 10^-1018.

In the body of the paper he tries to prepare people for this low
probability by talking of the "Many Universes" theory. He doesn't mention
the fact that we have no evidence for the existence of other universes.

For those still in the workforce, have a good holiday. Thanks for helping
to support me, long retired and drawing Social Security.

Lawrence H. Johnston

"He has made everything beautiful in its time.
 He has also set eternity in the hearts of men"
 - - Ecclesiastes 3:11, NIV trans

============================================================
Lawrence H. Johnston home: 917 E. 8th st.
professor of physics, emeritus Moscow, Id 83843
University of Idaho (208) 882-2765
Fellow of the American Physical Society
http://www.uidaho.edu/~johnston/HOMEPA~1.HTM ===============

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