Response to: What does the creation lack?

From: Peter Ruest (pruest@pop.mysunrise.ch)
Date: Wed Nov 14 2001 - 11:14:54 EST

  • Next message: Peter Ruest: "information from What does the creation lack?"

    Wayne Dawson wrote:

    >Peter Ruest wrote (in part):

       Comparing one case _known to have occurred_ among 6x10^9 other known
       cases to a calculated probability estimate in the transastronomical
       range (< 10^-80) for an event _never observed_ is fallacious logic!
    ;-)

    However, I must caution you that we don't know the
    odds against some kind(s) of "life" appearing somewhere
    in the universe. Clearly, _intelligent life_ is quite
    rare. As Enrico Fermi once said, "if intelligent life is
    so commonplace, where are they?" Nevertheless, this
    does not completely rule out the possibility that
    bacteria-like organisms are probable ... (yet)

    see for example
    http://www.sciam.com/2000/0700issue/0700crawford.html

    I think this article has a fairly well balanced view
    on the matter.

    By Grace we proceed,
    Wayne<

    The article you quote, Crawford I., "Where Are They?" Scientific
    American (July 2000), pp.28-33, is subtitled "Maybe we are alone in the
    galaxy after all", but has a sidebar by LePage A.J., "Where They Could
    Hide", pp.30-31.

    Another article, Franck S., Block A., von Bloh W., Bounama C., Garrido
    I., Schellnhuber H.J., "Planetary habitability: is Earth commonplace in
    the Milky Way?", Naturwissenschaften (2001), 88:416-426, derives a
    "thoroughly educated guess that there should exist half a million Gaias
    (i.e. extra-solar terrestrial planets with a globally acting biosphere)
    in the Milky Way."

    Compare this with the estimate by Ross H., "Big Bang Refined by Fire"
    (Pasadena, CA: Reasons to Believe, 1998), p.27, that the probability of
    finding, in the entire universe, a single planet suitable for human life
    is about 10^-77 (plus or minus a few orders of magnitude).

    Here we have another sample of one, with the second one never observed
    (up to now)! Educated guesses about its probability seem to be fraught
    with pitfalls. I have the impression Hugh Ross is closer to the truth.
    God is able to produce events of negligible probability. Did he use
    "hidden options" to guide the process?

    Peter

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