Dear Marcio
MP>In some sense I did it when I compared a single event (the coin toss)
and the collective outcome (the frequency distribution). However, I am
not
sure if there is such distinction. Both are generated by the same
processes.
bw> I am no scientist but I think your last two sentences above are very
important. It is like the error claiming a cause and effect between sets
of data without hard evidence of the relationship. For example, for years
it was said that Paris fashons skirt hem length was predictive of the Dow
Jones Industrial Average and all kinds of cause and effect was suggested,
such as short skirts caused aged businessmen to be optimistic.
In the same way, there is a vast philosophical and theoretical difference
between probability and statistics, yet they are generated by the same
processes. Statistics only applies to past events-historical data while
probability only applies to future events - stuff which has not yet
happened. It is not proper to refer to the probability of a past event.
sort of like a division by zero - it can be written but not interpreted
(by most people - probably not saying any of this right).
But this is done all the time by people who try to apply probability
theory to abiogenesis and evolution. For example, If life was produced
from non-life then all we can say about it (mathematically) is that it
happened. It might be that the chances of it happening again - a 2nd time
- are very small but this doesn't have anything to do with it happening
the first time.
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Sep 15 2000 - 20:28:12 EDT