Re: tests and predictions

From: Stephen E. Jones (sejones@iinet.net.au)
Date: Sat Apr 15 2000 - 06:24:41 EDT

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    Reflectorites

    On Sat, 15 Apr 2000 00:28:07 -0700, billwald@juno.com wrote:

    [...]

    >SJ>As this is my first response to one of Bill's posts, a welcome to the
    >>Reflector from me to him also. Maybe Bill could also tell us a bit about
    >>himself?

    BW>Thanks. Graduated from Clarkson University (nee College), Class of '62
    >with no backround in biology, just a smattering of engineering. Retired
    >after 30 years with the Seattle Police Dept.

    A nice city. Visited there in 1997. The weather was great and Mt Ranier
    was easy to see. Saw them throwing fish at the Pike St Markets. The
    Space Needle was a bit scary though! Loved Washington State.

    >I'm leaning toward theistic evolution - God started the ball rolling but
    >doesn't need to micro-manage. <G>

    Thanks to Bill. May I ask if Bill rules out God intervening at strategic
    points in natural history? For example, the origin of life, the origin
    of new designs, the origin of humans?

    >SJ>As Johnson points out,
    >>the "-ism" at the end of "creation" presents it as an ideology, whereas
    >>"evolution" (without a corresponding "-ism") is presented as a fact.

    BW>Good point. Thanks for correcting my sloppyness.

    No problem.

    >SJ>Bill does not define what he means by "macroevolution". Literally it
    >>means "large-scale evolution," and can simply mean "evolution above the
    >>species level":

    BW>OK

    BY>For us less technical people "macro" usually refers to the creation <G>
    >of a new specie which won't naturally cross-breed with the old. "Micro"
    >being small changes within a specie.

    That's OK, but a species is just an "isolated breeding group" which can be
    something as trivial as two otherwise identical fruit flies, one of which
    breeds in August and the other in June:

    "At a minimum students must learn to distinguish between microevolution
    (cyclical variation within the type, as in the finch-beak example) and
    macroevolution (the vaguely described process that supposedly creates
    innovations such as new complex organs or new body parts). Don't be
    impressed by claims that in a few borderline cases microevolution may have
    produced, or almost produced, new "species" The definition of "species" is
    flexible and sometimes means no more than "isolated breeding group." By
    such a definition a fruit fly that breeds in August rather than June may be
    considered a new species, although it remains a fruit fly. The question is
    how we get insects and other basic groups in the first place." (Johnson P.E.,
    "Defeating Darwinism by Opening Minds," 1997, pp.57-58).

    So on Bill's criteria, the formation of this new species would be
    macroevolution. But no creationist would deny that.

    >BW>But a general theory of Progressive Mediate Creation (PCM) *can* explain
    >>the origin of human beings

    BW>I confess I am not familiar with this term. I must read more carefully.

    Bill has nothing to apologise about. The term is mine AFAIK, but it is
    based on the broad creationist position of the great 19th century Reformed
    Christian theologian Charles Hodge (and Calvin and Augustine before
    him), as follows:

    "But while it has ever been the doctrine of the Church that God created the
    universe out of nothing by the word of his power, which creation was
    instantaneous and immediate, i. e., without the intervention of any second
    causes; yet it has generally been admitted that this is to be understood only
    of the original call of matter into existence. Theologians have, therefore,
    distinguished between a first and second, or immediate and mediate
    creation. The one was instantaneous, the other gradual; the one precludes
    the idea of any preexisting substance, and of cooperation, the other admits
    and implies both. There is evident ground for this distinction in the Mosaic
    account of the creation....It thus appears that forming out of preexisting
    material comes within the Scriptural idea of creating.... There is, therefore,
    according to the Scriptures, not only an immediate, instantaneous creation
    ex nihilo by the simple word of God, but a mediate, progressive creation;
    the power of God working in union with second causes." (Hodge C.,
    "Systematic Theology", [1892], James Clark & Co: London, 1960, Vol. I,
    reprint, pp.556-557)

    >>Darwinism does not merely "purport to describe historical events". If it
    >>is to be science and not mere history, it must claim to derive scientific
    >>principles from natural "historical events" by which it can explain and predict
    >>past, present and future events.

    BW>Somehow, I don't consider "I found a deep-throated flower therefore I
    >predict I will find a long-beaked bird" predicting a future event.
    >(someone quoted Darwin something along this line)
    >Predicting next year's strain of flu virus makes a better case for
    >predictive ability.

    No doubt. But that does not address what I said. If evolution is not to be
    mere history, it must do more than just be a chronicle of unique events, like
    the history of England:

    "For followers of Karl Popper's analysis of science and how it should be
    done, there is no more dismal example of a metaphysical system
    masquerading as a science than the theory of evolution. Popper himself, in
    The Poverty of Historicism, singles out evolutionary theory for an attack.
    "Can there be a law of evolution?" "No, the search for the law of the
    'unvarying order' in evolution cannot possibly fall within the scope of
    scientific method...". By this, Popper means only that the history of living
    organisms and their transformations on Earth are a specific sequence of
    unique events, no different from, say, the history of England. Since it is a
    unique sequence, no generalities can be constructed about it." (Lewontin
    R.C., "Testing the Theory of Natural Selection," review of Creed R., ed.,
    "Ecological Genetics and Evolution," Blackwell: Oxford, 1971, Nature,
    Vol. 236, March 24, 1972, p.181).

    BW>One problem with looking for evidence of macro evolution is that most
    >creatures larger than microscopic size have to long a gestation period to
    >allow much change to take place within the lifetime of an observer.

    We still need to nail precisely down what Bill means by "macroevolution".

    If Bill is only talking about "macroevolution" in the sense of the origin
    "of a new species which won't naturally cross-breed with the old" then no
    one, not even the strictest young-Earth creationist, certainly not me,
    would even *bother* debating that with Bill.

    Now if Bill wants to argue that "macroevolution" defined as: "the evolution
    of higher taxa and the production of evolutionary novelties such as new
    structures," the "origin of basic designs" and "major structural
    transition", *all* ocurred fully naturalistically, then we would have
    something to debate about!

    BW>Another problem is that new species are being discovered continually but
    >the underlying assumption is they have existed undiscovered and not
    >recently evolved. After all, we have only been looking for a couple
    >hundred years.

    See above on "species". Whether *species* have "existed undiscovered"
    or "recently evolved" no one would care to debate.

    BW>If I am to uneducated to be useful to the discussion feel free to
    >disregard.

    When I joined the Reflector back in 1995, I was "uneducated" , in the sense
    that like Bill, I am a layman in respect of having no formal qualifications
    in science, biology, evolution, and indeed theology (my degrees are in
    management). However, I was "educated" quickly on this Reflector in the
    `school of hard knocks'! That is IMHO one of the *best* educations one could
    have in creation/evolution.

    I have just started a BSc in Biology which will take me many years to
    finish. So I will remain "uneducated" by that criterion for a long time to
    come! I remarked to someone privately that "I have gone 5 years [on the
    Calvin Reflector] arguing against evolution and only now am I learning
    some Biology", but "...most of the evolutionists I have argued with didn't
    seem to know much Biology either", so "Maybe ignorance of the details is
    a prerequisite in this debate? :-)".

    Seriously, Bill might be encouraged by what Johnson wrote:

    "Being a scientist is not necessarily an advantage when dealing with a very
    broad topic like evolution, which cuts across many scientific disciplines and
    also involves issues of philosophy. Practicing scientists are of necessity
    highly specialized, and a scientist outside his field of expertise is just
    another layman." (Johnson P.E., "Darwin on Trial," 1993, pp.13-14).

    [...]

    Steve

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "And not- less surprised to be informed, that the watch in his hand was
    nothing more than the result of the laws of metallic nature. It is a
    perversion of language to assign any law, as the efficient, operative, cause
    of any thing. A law presupposes an agent; for it is only the mode,
    according to which an agent proceeds: it implies a power; for it is the
    order, according to which that power acts. Without this agent, without this
    power, which are both distinct from itself, the law does nothing; is nothing.
    The expression, "the law of metallic nature," may sound strange and harsh
    to a philosophic ear, but it seems quite as justifiable as some others which
    are more familiar to him, such as "the law of vegetable nature"-" the law of
    animal nature," or indeed as "the law of nature" in general, when assigned
    as the cause of phaenomena, in exclusion of agency and power, or when it
    is substituted into the place of these." (Paley W., "Natural Theology: or,
    Evidences of the Existence and Attributes of the Deity, Collected from the
    Appearances of Nature," [1802], St. Thomas Press: Houston TX, 1972,
    reprint, p.5)
    Stephen E. Jones | sejones@iinet.net.au | http://www.iinet.net.au/~sejones
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