"Kevin: You wrote: "That probability DOESN'T mean you have to make that many tries before you get one. It ONLY means that on average it would take that many tries for one of the tries, ANY of those tries, to be successful. You get it on the very first try."
Oops, sorry! That should have read, "You COULD get it on the first try." Bad computer!
"You can convince me by betting, Kevin."
That's unnecessary. You will be convinced just as easily, and for less money, if you go to your local university and take a few courses on statistics and probability.
"I listen, Kevin. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I invite you to do the same."
This inane betting scheme of yours is based on serious misconceptions that could easily be overcome with a little education. In all candor you would win nearly all the bets, but not for the reasons you suppose, so nothing would be changed.
Kevin L. O'Brien