Re: [asa] Epidemiological science

I'm amazed at what they admit here in their first sentence of this abstract.
 
cwc
 

>>> "Michael Roberts" <michael.andrea.r@ukonline.co.uk> 9/17/2007 6:25 AM >>>
This is a very valid criticism. Here in Britain are tragic cases over cot deaths where the expert (knighted and FRSed for his work) argued that there was a one in 200000 chance of a cot death and thus one in 2000000x2000000 of two cot deaths in a family and thus this points to murder . A few mothers were sent to jail for murder and later acquited. This is not quite epidemiological science but rather appalling statistics.
 
There is the other problem of the researcher seeing what they want to see and that can be a problem in all science.
 
But here is a classic one from historical science, which clearly avoids all the errors of conventional geology!!!
 
Is it valid?
 
Michael
 

Proceedings of the First Conference
on Creation Geology
“Geology Education for the Future”
Aaron R. Hutchison, PhD
John H. Whitmore, PhD
editors
July 26-28, 2007
Cedarville University, Cedarville, Ohio
Published By
©Creation Research Science Education Foundation, Columbus, Ohio
T-02
Dinosaur Distribution within the
Context of Biome Succession
(Or Why Are Dinosaurs Restricted
to the Mesozoic?)
Lee A. Spencer
Southern Adventist University
The order of the geologic time scale divisions is
real and based upon observation. (Most geologic
periods were named by diluvialists before the
theory of evolution was proposed.) A Biblically
consistent explanation for the succession of
geologic periods is that as the Flood waters rose,
they encountered different habitats that were
elevation dependant. Elevationally/latitudinally
restricted habitats are termed “biomes.” The
Flood model based on elevationally restricted
habitats is often entitled “the pr inciple of biome
succession” or “ecological zonation” (Clark,
1946). Dinosaurs then, because they are
restricted to the Mesozoic, would have lived at
the middle elevations, lower than mammals,
higher than the synapsid reptiles. As the Flood
waters rose, they would have destroyed the
dinosaurs before reaching the elevations where
the Cenozoic mammals were living.
Dinosaurs fill equivalent niches that mammals
fill today but large modern mammals such as
horses, camels and elephants are never found
buried with dinosaurs. Mammals are found in
the Mesozoic, but they are tiny and unlike any
modern mammals. We can explain why there are
no large mammals found buried with dinosaurs
because the climate of lower elevations would
be warmer than higher elevations. Dinosaurs
probably got much of their body heat from the
environment and maintained their body
temperature at a high enough level to behave
like mammals. If the environmental temperature
where dinosaurs lived was high enough for them
to maintain a body temperature equivalent to
large mammals, then those animals whose body
heat comes from metabolizing their food would
not have been able get rid of their body heat.
They would have cooked from their own
metabolic energy. Conversely, the cooler
temperatures at higher elevations where modern
mammals can live would be too cool for
dinosaurs to maintain their heat.
The biome succession model does not depend on
the exact horizon of the dinosaur’s extinction.
There is some controversy about whether
dinosaurs survived into the Paleocene or if fossil
dinosaurs from the late Cretaceous were
reworked into Paleocene sediments (van Valen,
1988). For this model, it really does not matter.
There are no modern mammals in the Paleocene.
Modern-like mammals are only found from the
Miocene upward. There are unconfirmed reports
of modern dinosaurs, but this model would
predict that if they still occur, they would be
restricted to the warmest regions on earth. There
is no scientific evidence that dinosaurs are
extant.
Dinosaur extinction after the Flood can be
explained by the lack of a place constantly warm
enough, especially during the “ice ages,” for
their continued existence. No large meteor is
needed for dinosaur extinction, only a Biblical
Flood.
Clark, Harold. 1946. The New Diluvialism:
Angwin, CA, Science Publications, 222 p.
van Valen, L. M., 1988, Paleocene dinosaurs
or Cretaceous ungulates in South America:
University of Chicago, 79 p.
Lee Spencer has BA in Paleobiology from the
University of California, Riverside an MS in
Geology from Loma Linda University and a
PhD in Biology from Loma Linda University.
He serves as Associate Professor of Biology at
Southern Adventist University in Collegedale,
TN.
Proceedings of the First Conference on Creation Geology, Cedarville University
http://cedarville.edu/geologyconference ©CRSEF
9

----- Original Message -----
From: Randy Isaac ( mailto:randyisaac@comcast.net )
To: asa@calvin.edu
Sent: Monday, September 17, 2007 3:06 AM
Subject: [asa] Epidemiological science

Identifying and understanding the various types of scientific endeavors can be a useful exercise though it can be misused. It can be helpful, for instance, to understand "historical" and "experimental" science though in most cases this distinction is drawn primarily with the purpose of casting doubt on the results of historical science. That is an erroneous use since the validity of any science, whether historical or not, depends primarily on the availability of relevant data. For many historical events, there is simply not enough data to determine what happened. For many other events, there may be plenty of data and the conclusions are quite credible.
 
In today's NYTimes Magazine there is a lengthy article taking a look at an example of the type of science underlying the HRT studies. The reversals of opinion on the merits of HRT were quite dramatic and highly publicized. In this article, found at
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/magazine/16epidemiology-t.html?pagewanted=2&ref=magazine
Gary Taubes digs into a type of science that he calls epidemiological science. He shows the strengths and weaknesses of this type of science which he believes has led to more than a few erroneous conclusions.
 
Epidemiological science has had some outstanding and important successes, which Taubes lauds. But due to its reliance on identifying correlations rather than causal relationships, it can also lead to signficant misunderstandings. Sometimes no other method is available. It is important to understand the nature of the underlying data and the type of conclusions that can be made.
 
Net: I'm not a fan of labeling different types of science. I am a fan of understanding the quality and nature of the relevant data and the way in which it is interpreted.
 
Randy

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Received on Mon Sep 17 10:44:04 2007