Re: [asa] Epidemiological science

This is a very valid criticism. Here in Britain are tragic cases over cot deaths where the expert (knighted and FRSed for his work) argued that there was a one in 200000 chance of a cot death and thus one in 2000000x2000000 of two cot deaths in a family and thus this points to murder . A few mothers were sent to jail for murder and later acquited. This is not quite epidemiological science but rather appalling statistics.

There is the other problem of the researcher seeing what they want to see and that can be a problem in all science.

But here is a classic one from historical science, which clearly avoids all the errors of conventional geology!!!

Is it valid?

Michael

Proceedings of the First Conference

on Creation Geology

"Geology Education for the Future"

Aaron R. Hutchison, PhD

John H. Whitmore, PhD

editors

July 26-28, 2007

Cedarville University, Cedarville, Ohio

Published By

©Creation Research Science Education Foundation, Columbus, Ohio

T-02

Dinosaur Distribution within the

Context of Biome Succession

(Or Why Are Dinosaurs Restricted

to the Mesozoic?)

Lee A. Spencer

Southern Adventist University

The order of the geologic time scale divisions is

real and based upon observation. (Most geologic

periods were named by diluvialists before the

theory of evolution was proposed.) A Biblically

consistent explanation for the succession of

geologic periods is that as the Flood waters rose,

they encountered different habitats that were

elevation dependant. Elevationally/latitudinally

restricted habitats are termed "biomes." The

Flood model based on elevationally restricted

habitats is often entitled "the pr inciple of biome

succession" or "ecological zonation" (Clark,

1946). Dinosaurs then, because they are

restricted to the Mesozoic, would have lived at

the middle elevations, lower than mammals,

higher than the synapsid reptiles. As the Flood

waters rose, they would have destroyed the

dinosaurs before reaching the elevations where

the Cenozoic mammals were living.

Dinosaurs fill equivalent niches that mammals

fill today but large modern mammals such as

horses, camels and elephants are never found

buried with dinosaurs. Mammals are found in

the Mesozoic, but they are tiny and unlike any

modern mammals. We can explain why there are

no large mammals found buried with dinosaurs

because the climate of lower elevations would

be warmer than higher elevations. Dinosaurs

probably got much of their body heat from the

environment and maintained their body

temperature at a high enough level to behave

like mammals. If the environmental temperature

where dinosaurs lived was high enough for them

to maintain a body temperature equivalent to

large mammals, then those animals whose body

heat comes from metabolizing their food would

not have been able get rid of their body heat.

They would have cooked from their own

metabolic energy. Conversely, the cooler

temperatures at higher elevations where modern

mammals can live would be too cool for

dinosaurs to maintain their heat.

The biome succession model does not depend on

the exact horizon of the dinosaur's extinction.

There is some controversy about whether

dinosaurs survived into the Paleocene or if fossil

dinosaurs from the late Cretaceous were

reworked into Paleocene sediments (van Valen,

1988). For this model, it really does not matter.

There are no modern mammals in the Paleocene.

Modern-like mammals are only found from the

Miocene upward. There are unconfirmed reports

of modern dinosaurs, but this model would

predict that if they still occur, they would be

restricted to the warmest regions on earth. There

is no scientific evidence that dinosaurs are

extant.

Dinosaur extinction after the Flood can be

explained by the lack of a place constantly warm

enough, especially during the "ice ages," for

their continued existence. No large meteor is

needed for dinosaur extinction, only a Biblical

Flood.

Clark, Harold. 1946. The New Diluvialism:

Angwin, CA, Science Publications, 222 p.

van Valen, L. M., 1988, Paleocene dinosaurs

or Cretaceous ungulates in South America:

University of Chicago, 79 p.

Lee Spencer has BA in Paleobiology from the

University of California, Riverside an MS in

Geology from Loma Linda University and a

PhD in Biology from Loma Linda University.

He serves as Associate Professor of Biology at

Southern Adventist University in Collegedale,

TN.

Proceedings of the First Conference on Creation Geology, Cedarville University

http://cedarville.edu/geologyconference ©CRSEF

9

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: Randy Isaac
  To: asa@calvin.edu
  Sent: Monday, September 17, 2007 3:06 AM
  Subject: [asa] Epidemiological science

  Identifying and understanding the various types of scientific endeavors can be a useful exercise though it can be misused. It can be helpful, for instance, to understand "historical" and "experimental" science though in most cases this distinction is drawn primarily with the purpose of casting doubt on the results of historical science. That is an erroneous use since the validity of any science, whether historical or not, depends primarily on the availability of relevant data. For many historical events, there is simply not enough data to determine what happened. For many other events, there may be plenty of data and the conclusions are quite credible.

  In today's NYTimes Magazine there is a lengthy article taking a look at an example of the type of science underlying the HRT studies. The reversals of opinion on the merits of HRT were quite dramatic and highly publicized. In this article, found at
  http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/magazine/16epidemiology-t.html?pagewanted=2&ref=magazine
  Gary Taubes digs into a type of science that he calls epidemiological science. He shows the strengths and weaknesses of this type of science which he believes has led to more than a few erroneous conclusions.

  Epidemiological science has had some outstanding and important successes, which Taubes lauds. But due to its reliance on identifying correlations rather than causal relationships, it can also lead to signficant misunderstandings. Sometimes no other method is available. It is important to understand the nature of the underlying data and the type of conclusions that can be made.

  Net: I'm not a fan of labeling different types of science. I am a fan of understanding the quality and nature of the relevant data and the way in which it is interpreted.

  Randy

To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
"unsubscribe asa" (no quotes) as the body of the message.
Received on Mon Sep 17 07:27:01 2007