Re: [asa] IPCC AR4 Bombshell: No skill in scientific forecasting

More and more research is showing that the solar contributions to
global warming fail to explain the recent warming trends (earlier work
already indicated much doubt that solar contributions were a factor
(http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/taking-cosmic-rays-for-a-spin/))

<quote>There is considerable evidence for solar influence on the
Earth's pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a
factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last
century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in
the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have
been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the
observed rise in global mean temperatures.
</quote>

Mike Lockwood, Claus Froehlich, Recent oppositely directed trends in
solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature ,
Proc. R. Soc. A , 2007

Concluding

<quote>There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest
that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate.
There are also some detection–attribution studies using global
climate models that suggest there was a detectable influence of solar
variability in the first half of the twentieth century and that the
solar radiative forcing variations were amplified by some mechanism
that is, as yet, unknown. However, these findings are not relevant to
any debates about modern climate change. Our results show that the
observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985
cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms
is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified.
</quote>

As Realclimate observes

<quote>Stefan was quoted in Nature as saying this is the 'last nail in
the coffin' for solar enthusiasts, but a better rejoinder is a
statement from Ray P: "That's a coffin with so many nails in it
already that the hard part is finding a place to hammer in a new
one."</quote>

On 7/8/07, PvM <pvm.pandas@gmail.com> wrote:
> A true bombshell, remember the claims by global warming deniers about
> the link between global warming and cosmic rays? Well, the outlook
> seems to be poor...
>

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Received on Sat Jul 14 18:23:48 2007