Re: [asa] IPCC AR4 Bombshell: No skill in scientific forecasting

A true bombshell, remember the claims by global warming deniers about
the link between global warming and cosmic rays? Well, the outlook
seems to be poor...

At Wired Science Fraser Cain reports on the latest research on global
warming and cosmic rays. There is no link:

<quote>
    But T. Sloan from the University of Lancaster and A.W. Wolfendale
from Durham University have looked carefully at the evidence and found
it unconvincing. They published their results in a new paper called
Cosmic Rays and Global Warming. Their research will be presented at
the 30th International Cosmic Ray Conference, held in Merida Mexico
from July 3 - July 11, 2007.

    According to Sloan and Wolfendale, the 2000 paper highlighting the
connection between cosmic rays and low-level clouds completely avoids
clouds at other altitudes. This is surprising because cosmic ray
ionization should increase with altitude. Cosmic rays should be
intercepted earlier by the atmosphere and turned into clouds, not down
at the lowest altitudes. If cosmic rays were to blame, you would
expect the exact opposite, with more high-altitude clouds
</quote>

http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2007/07/03/cosmic-rays-and-global-warming/

<quote>
It's also a fact that this issue was at first denied by such
politicians; they said global warming didn't exist (Inhofe called it a
"hoax"). Under relentless pressure from scientists and other
reality-based people, these guys have finally admitted that yes, GW
exists. Now, of course, they are trying to lay blame anywhere but on
the corporations that pay them so handsomely.

They have looked everywhere to push this blame: solar heating, natural
orbital cycles, incomplete data. We can be pretty sure the first is
not to blame, and the second is on much longer timescales than the
very sudden rise we have been seeing in the past few years/decades. As
for the third– well, it's easy to say "We're awaiting new data." But
it's not terribly satisfying.

And now, it looks like another potential natural cause may be going
the same way. Fraser Cain, webmaster of Universe Today and blogger for
Wired magazine, has an excellent new post up describing how cosmic
rays are also not to blame for global warming.</quote>

http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/07/no-link-between.html

We may not hear from Janice further on this topic but to those
interested in the science behind the fact of global warming, these
excellent papers do much to lay to rest the almost desperate attempts
by some to find anything but human causes for the recent global
warming.

Why? If that is where the evidence is pointing should we not take it
seriously and develop a rational response?

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Received on Mon Jul 9 00:54:44 2007