Re: [asa] YEC--What can we offer them?

Perhaps I should clarify what I was trying to say, which was certainly not a firm opinion that no presumably-verified theories have been invalidated. Nor did I intend to get philosophical or tread anywhere near Kuhn or Popper or anyone else. I'm just looking at this from the perspective of a typical practicing scientist.

Rather, this relates back to my post on Jan. 21, 2007. http://www.calvin.edu/archive/asa/200701/0489.html In essence, I was saying that there's a spectrum of maturity in a field of science that ranges from a frontier, where there aren't any good theories or maybe no data, to a phase of controversy over which theory is correct and finally to a theory that has earned the acceptance of virtually the entire community of scientific experts in the field due to strong, independently verified data. Skepticism in science is healthy but the bar is raised considerably as the field matures. In the frontier phase, most of the skepticism may be justified. In the mature phase, it's seldom correct. By then, most difficulties have already been addressed by the professional community. Exceptions exist, to be sure, but not very many.

The view that scientists are always changing their mind or are frequently wrong stems from the tendency for the media to publicize work that is in the frontier phase, trying to earn a viable candidacy as a legitimate theory. This was the case in the 70's for those who published predictions of a coming ice age. That view never gained consensus but is now viewed erroneously as a case of scientists reversing themselves. Similarly, many claims of the effects of vitamins or a particular food or drug are publicized at the early stage and not at a well-supported mature phase. Later when solid data have been obtained, the public thinks scientists are always changing their mind.

To make this whole point relevant, I would say that issues like heliocentrism, age of the earth, global warming, or biological evolution are very much in the mature phase, when measured by the community of active publishing scientists. Skepticism is rife among those who prefer to see these theories proved wrong. They may be right, but the hurdle is high indeed and skepticism of the skepticism is in order.

Randy

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: Don Winterstein
  To: asa
  Cc: Randy Isaac
  Sent: Saturday, July 07, 2007 1:53 AM
  Subject: Re: [asa] YEC--What can we offer them?

  Randy wrote:

  ...So I'd revise Randy's claim to read as follows: Scientific theories go where experiments and human minds lead. In no case have scientists gone back to an old theory once data and theorists made it clear there was a better theory. (Exception: Sometimes an old theory still has pedagogical or computational uses.)

  Of course, this may well not be the kind of thing Randy wanted to say!

  Don

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Received on Sat Jul 7 21:25:10 2007