Oil production figures

What follows below are the thoughts of Roger Blanchard on oil production
in the US, the UK and Norway taken from the energy resources list. What
I find is that those who suggest that our oil resources will soon peak
have lots of data to back up their claims, while those who say we will
have all the oil we want until 2075 never refer to these figures or try
to rebut them, but rather just say in very vague terms that new
technologies will provide more oil and more discoveries. What Blanchard
says in the following does not look all that good to me for future oil
production increases. I guess the UK is now getting pretty close to the
time when they will have to start importing oil instead of exporting it.
Perhaps Glenn can tell whether these figures look like they are accurate
based on his experience.

Blanchard writes the following:

For the period 1988-2000, Alaska's oil production (crude +
 condensate) declined at an average rate of 5.77%/year. The
 introduction of the Alpine and Northstar fields as well as satellites
 of the Prudhoe Bay and Kuparak fields created a production plateau
 for several years (2000-2003). The Alpine and Northstar fields are
 now running at what appears to be maximum production, ~108,000 b/d
 and ~80,000 b/d respectively, and Alaska's production is declining
 again. In spite of 5 years of exploration I have not heard of any
discoveries in
 the 4.6 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska
(NPR-A) that
 was opened up by President Clinton .

 For the period 1992-2001 the average decline rate for the US/48,
 excluding the deep-water (>1000 ft) Gulf of Mexico (GOM), was
 3.38%/year. Deep-water GOM production increased ~700,000 b/d from
 1995 to 2001 (2001 is the last year of available data from the
 Minerals Management Service). Deep-water GOM production should peak
 around 2010 (The US Department of Energy/Energy Information
 Administration is stating that maximum deep-water GOM production will
 occur in 2008). Through 162 days this year, U.S. oil production is
 down 248,000 b/d versus the first 162 days of last year. The
 magnitude of the decline is surprising considering all the deep-water
 GOM fields that were expected to be brought on-line during 2003-2004
 (Na Kika, Medussa, Matterhorn, Habanero, Horn Mountain, Front Runner,
 Devil's Tower and Gunnison).

To add to what I had previously written, I have estimated that the
 United Kingdom's oil production will decline at an average rate of
 4.8%/year after 1999. For the period 1999-2003, the U.K.'s
 production decline was 22.8%. In 2001, there were 52 U.K. fields
 with peak production rates of at least 25,000 b/d that had been in
 decline for at least 3 years. The average decline rate for the 52
 fields was 15.4% for 2000-2001. To counteract the high decline rates
 of ageing fields, smaller fields are being brought on-line at an
 accelerating rate. In 2002, there were over 260 U.K. fields in
 production with 84 fields under development. That is up from ~50
 producing fields in 1990. The fields that are now being brought on-
 line start production at or near their maximum production rates.
 Many will probably have lifetimes of less than 10 years. In an
 extreme example of small fields having short lifetimes, the Durward
 and Dauntless fields were brought on-line in August 1997 and
 terminated in April 1999.

 Several points can be made concerning the decline of ageing North Sea
 fields. First, the application of modern technology in the
 extraction of oil has not prevented rapid production declines.
 Modern technology actually creates high decline rates by accelerating
 extraction rates in the early phase of extraction which leads to high
 decline rates after the production peak. Second, not all oil fields
 decline at the same rate due to a variety of factors, but all fields
 with peaks >25,000 b/d that had been in decline for at least 6 years
 had declined more than 50% from their maximum production rates.

 I have estimated that Norway's oil production will decline at an
 average rate of 7.2%/year after 2002. For the period 2001-2003,
 Norway's oil production decline was 180,000 b/d. The decline this
 year will be reduced because of the introduction of the Grane and
 Fram fields which were brought on-line in late 2003. In April 2004,
 Grane had a production rate of ~114,000 b/d and Fram had a rate of
 ~56,000 b/d.

 I have been stating for a decade that global conventional oil
 production (I'm including deep-water and Arctic production as
 conventional) would peak in approximately 2010 and it still looks
 that way to me. During 2004-2006, there will be a rapid introduction
 of fields that are expected to reach peak production rates of
>100,000 b/d, almost all offshore, and mostly deep-water (>1000 ft).
 That will add about 8 m/d in new production. While production is
 rising from these new fields, production will decline in many
 countries which will reduce the impact of the increasing production
 from new fields. Production from the new offshore fields, in
 particular, will be ramped up rapidly and the fields will decline
 rapidly (>10%/year generally). At this point, it appears that
 production in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico (U.S.) and Campos Basin
 (Brazil) will peak around 2010 or a little earlier while deep-water
 production off West Africa will peak a little later. I'm expecting
 tremendous pressure on Middle East OPEC producers to increase
 production in coming years to meet global demand. The higher their
 production rates get, the higher the decline rates will be after
 their peaks. I have not made an estimate of the rate at which global
 conventional oil production will decline after the peak, but it seems
 reasonable to expect a decline in the 3-5%/year range.
Received on Fri Jul 2 10:57:36 2004