From: Glenn Morton (glenn.morton@btinternet.com)
Date: Tue Dec 03 2002 - 00:05:14 EST
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Dr. Blake Nelson [mailto:bnelson301@yahoo.com]
>Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 1:20 AM
>To: Glenn Morton
>Cc: ASA
>Subject: RE: oil
>
>
>Glenn,
>
>I like to try to do my part. ;) As I have said
>before, it is often a matter of degree. Sometimes, I
>can't resist replying to overstatement.
>
>Vis-a-vis nuclear power, I will be happy to post some
>specifics when I have a chance -- I am working 16+
>hour days on a regular basis these days.
>
>While your points have some validity, it is clearly
>overblown. Think about it logically. Regardless of
>what happens over the next several decades, new power
>plants will have to be built. To say that nukes will
>take up inordinate amounts of GDP over a short time
>period is simply wrong.
Take the decline in the North Sea. The production remained flat from 1995
until 1999. Then it began a decline of 12% per year. As I have said, it
will take 3-5 years before the world comes to grip with the issue. By then
you will be down significantly in production. That means a large scale
nuclear construction effort must occur. If it takes another 3 years to
bring them online that makes 8 years to get things together. at a 12%
decline, after 8 years you will only be producing 35% of what you were
producing. Now, let's remember some significant facts here. Population is
growing. Demand for hydrocarbons and other forms of energy is increasing.
Projections say we must go up by 40% by 2020 to remain where we are. Yet, if
the world begins even a modest 4% you will be producing 25% less oil in 8
years than you are at the peak. And with nothing but future declines ahead
of you, you will have to continue this massive investment program. I
suspect that the investment will have to be made over a much shorter period
than you are considering.
Secondly, it isn't at all a sure thing that nuclear plants will be built.
On Foxnews this weekend a guy was talking about a possible Al-Qaeda attack
on Indian nuclear plants which are less shielded than those in the US. If
they succeeded in causing a CHina Syndrome there, no one would build a plant
regardless of the energy requirements (or the plants would be buried
underground further increasing the costs.
Plants (including fossil fuel
>plants) have life cycles and have to be replaced,
>especially if they become cost ineffective as new and
>existing fossil fuel plants will as fossil fuel prices
>rise and/or operation costs more if something like
>Kyoto is implemented. The market will sort out the
>balance between fossil and nukes. One government
>regulatory change in the US could make this start to
>happen now.
Wanna bet? I bet this won't happen until we are way into an energy crisis.
>
>Unless you have fossil fuel production plummet (rather
>than plateau) over a very short-time period, the world
>will adjust. There will be money to be made on nukes
>and the private sector will build them and make money.
Let me answer this in this manner:
oil field discovered 2000 production
Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) 1948 4.5 million bopd
Cantarell (Mexico) 1976 1.2 million bopd
Burgan (Kuwait) 1938 1.2 million bopd
Daqing (China) 1959 1.1 million bopd
Total 8 million bopd
That represents 10% of the world's production in those 4 fields 3 of which
are over 50 years old. They can't go on forever. There are rumors in the
Industry that Ghwar is watering out on the crest and indeed, the Saudi's
hold info on that field as a national secret. One guy who works for a major
consulting organization told me that they had finished a study of Ghawar and
it was indeed drawing more and more water. That is not good news. When it
declines, it will go fairly rapidly.
The private sector will be reluctant to build nukes. British Energy, over
here, is having to be bailed out by the governement to the tune of 600 milli
on pounds with rumors they may still go under. They are the major nuclear
electrical generator here. They are losing money hand over fist. Not many in
the private sector want to follow them.
glenn
see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
for lots of creation/evolution information
anthropology/geology/paleontology/theology\
personal stories of struggle
>>
>(SNIPPED)
>
>
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