I ran into this clip this week:
"It seems strange to think that Britain-one of the very few advanced
industrial economies that is self-sufficient in energy could be facing a
long-term energy crisis. Yet that is the inescapable conclusion of a review
by Downing Street's Performance and Innovation Unit (PIU) on Britain's
future energy needs."
"Britain is running out of natural gas, which accounts for 30 per cent of
our electricity, and we may soon be forced to import gas from some of the
least stable regions of the world. By 2006 we may have to import 15 per cent
of our gas. " "There is no Alternative: We must Invest in Renewable Energy
Now," The Independent," Jan. 23, 2002, p. 3
and as Kenneth Deffeyes wrote of the peak in world oil production:
"The mathematical peak falls at the year 2004.7; call it 2005. However, I'm
not betting the farm that the actual year is 2005 and not 2003 or 2006. The
top of the mathematical distribution is smoothly curved, and there is a fair
amount of jitter in the year to year production. Remember, the center of
the best-fit U.S. curve was 1975 ad the actual single peak year was 1970.
There is nothing plausible that could postpone the peak until 2009. Get used
to it." Kenneth S. Deffeyes, “Hubbert’s Peak” (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 2001), p. 158
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