The problem with all the alternative energy sources I have looked at is that
they can't come anywhere near providing the energy which oil gives us. And I
agree that the funding for alternatives, especially fusion, is far too
little. We need to fund fusion research and solve that because that is the
real answer as I see it.
-----Original Message-----
From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu]On
Behalf Of Walter Hicks
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 12:44 PM
To: Glenn Morton
Cc: Jack Haas; asa@calvin.edu
Subject: Re: tidbits on oil
Interesting analysis --- and rather frightening. I've heard of another
possible energy source, OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). The web site
http://www.nrel.gov/otec/ goes into a discussion of U.S. activities. The
U.S. seems to be funding some research in the area but it does not seem to
be very substantial.
Walt
Glenn Morton wrote:
Hi Jack,For the UK, it is predicted that within 3 years they will be a
net importer of natural gas. They already have the gas interconnector to
Norway ready to go. Eventually the UK and Europe will depend upon Algeria
and Russia for their supplies of natural gas. Expect there to be less close
ties to the US.I don't know the 2001 oil consumption figure for the UK but
in 1998, they consumed 1.78 million bbl/day. Even if that rate had remained
constant, the UK is now producing only 2.2 million bbl/day. If we continue
with a 15% decline rate, we will be importing oil before I come back to the
States in a year and a half.The implications of this are that the taxes
collected on this oil will be in serious decline putting pressure on social
services. I have a friend whose husband is an economist over here and he
says that this is the last generation of Brits who will have the social net
that they have. However, the British government gets $96 dollars per barrel
in taxes off of oil (not just UK oil). This will have to rise to make up the
extra taxes they are able to collect from the North Sea.Jobs will decrease
in the oil industry so Scotland will feel that pinch, especially Aberdeen.
They will have to find new industries to live off of. Fishing is
practically dead and farming in this country is not very lucrative. Once
again, I would point people to my web
pagehttp://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/Future_oil_supply.htm for a
fuller discussion of the implications of running out of oil.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jack Haas [mailto:haasJ@mediaone.net]
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 11:38 PM
To: glenn.morton@btinternet.com; asa@calvin.edu
Subject: Re: tidbits on oil
Glenn,Do you have any comment on the economic effect on the UK of
the continuing decrease in oil production that you report?Jack Haas
-------Original Message-------
From: Glenn Morton
Date: Saturday, January 19, 2002 06:54:27
To: Asa@Calvin. Edu
Subject: tidbits on oil
While the current recession, fear of flying and a relatively
warm winter
have drastically dropped the demand for oil, the long term
picture still
does not look great. Opec's reserves as a percentage of world
reserves
continues to climb. Reserves are the amount of producible oil
still in the
ground. Here is the data
1980 Opec had 60% of world reserves
1990 Opec had 76% of world reserves
2001 Opec has 79% of world reserves
They are growing because the rest of the world is pumping out
their reserves
as is happening in the UK. The Guardian this week wrote:
“The drop in crude output for the second year running confirms
that Britain
as an oil nation reached its peak in 1999 when it produced 2.8 m
barrels a
day. Output fell to 2.6 m barrels in 2000 and has plunged a
precipitous 15%
to 2.2 m over the last 12 months.” “Buzzard’s boost,” The
Guardian Jan 18,
2002, p. 23
.
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===================================
Walt Hicks <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
In any consistent theory, there must
exist true but not provable statements.
(Godel's Theorem)
You can only find the truth with logic
If you have already found the truth
without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
===================================
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