Ok, my math isn't so hot but I did pass a college level class in
statistics and probability. People like Dembski AND Sagan (both sides of
the table) make the same basic error. Statistics ONLY applies to past
events. If life developed on one out of a billion planets then it is a
done deal and the only datum is that life developed on one out of a
billion planets.
Probability ONLY applies to future events. It is acceptable to discuss
the chances of life arising AGAIN on another planet somewhere in the
universe but it has nothing to do with the historical fact that there is
life on this planet.
In other words, the odds of a tossed coin comming up heads is 0,5 and it
doesn't matter if you have just tossed 5 consecutive heads, the odds for
every individual toss is the same.
This Christian perversion (perversion by many people who wish to turn
philosophy into science because science pays better <G>) of mathematics
happens all the time . . . "The odd of Jesus being born in Bethlehm" (if
comupted brfore the fact) . . . are about the same as the odds I would be
born in Brooklyn, NY if computed before the fact.
billwald@juno.com
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