Probability question
Randy Bronson (randy@Techsource.COM)
Wed, 14 Oct 1998 07:24:11 -0400 (EDT) As a layman with no scientific training I've been observing on the
list for several months. But I've been intrigued by the recent
discussion on probability and would like to pose a question.
Joseph's original contention was that abiogenesis was an event so
improbable that it could not have happened without intelligent
intervention. His viewpoint was argued against by noting that a
particular hand of cards dealt to a player or a particular roll of
the dice over ten trials were also seemingly improbable events which
happened nevertheless. But it seems to me that these examples deal
with a different type of situation than the one that Joseph originally
described.
In Joseph's situation a particular subset of all possible outcomes
was specified in advance. It was not denied that some amino acids
would form chains of varying lengths only that no functional proteins
would be form(and as Pim has correctly pointed out there is more that
one functional amino acid chain that could be formed). In the counter-
examples that were offered ANY dealt hand of cards or ANY roll of the
dice can be used as examples of an improbable event that actually
happens. To bring the idea of the wager back into the discussion,
would you bet ten thousand dollars that you would draw the same hand
after the deck is shuffled or that you could roll the dice in exactly
the same sequence again?
A process which could produce any one of a thousand outcomes only
produces one. That outcome does in fact occur but to specify it in
advance would be very difficult. It seems to me that this is the
sense in which Joseph's critique is valid.
Looking forward to your responses.
Randy Bronson
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