Re: Evolutionists' champion, Steve, accepts my challenge.

Joseph Mastropaolo (mastropaolo@net999.com)
Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:14:32 -0700

Steve wrote:> I earlier challenged Joseph to the following bet:
>
> >> Retroviruses infect cells and integrate randomly into the genomic DNA of
> >> the cells. Therefore, the chance that a virion will disrupt a specific
> >> gene is extremely rare (1 in millions probability). Joseph, I ask you to
> >> put your money where your mouth is and bet me, using your logic, that I
> can't
> >> get any cells in which a virion has inserted into a gene called c-myc.
> >> Shall we wager the money you think that you won from Pim?
>
> And Joseph has declined to participate. This is a simple challenge of his
> understanding of probability and it is not loaded with false assumption and
> definitions as his challenge was. This represents a straightforward
> problem of probability. Come on Joseph, can't you use you definition of
> probability measurements to take it on?
>
> Steve

I accept. But first you must get to the first protein. That is the bet I
offered you and you declined. Remember:

>Pim wrote:
> Poor Joseph, has to resort to betting when he does not understand the scientific
>argument being made.

All the more reason to take advantage of my ignorance, Pim, and make
yourself a fortune in the process. There they are below: your chance to
make $101,000.

>0.95 is not limited to correlational evidence. So, here is a chance to
>make another cool $1000. You say that 0.95 is a standard limited to
>correlational analyses and we both put up $1000. If you are right, you
>collect the $2000. If I am right, I collect the $2000. Deal?

>Now let me offer Kevin, and every other evolutionist who would like to
> join him, an opportunity to get rich quick with your evolutionist
> convictions. You bet 100 times at $100 per bet in a lottery that we set
> up with your evolutionist's probability of winning of 2.3 x 10^-75. For
> every win, I give you $100. What you lose goes to me. Then you do the
> same for me at the scientist's probability of winning of 0.95. For every
> win, you give me $100. What I lose goes to you. Deal?

> Taking note of how much you talk, Pim, the ante ought to be raised
> proportionately for you. So, I will offer you 1000 bets as above and
> match you with 1000 bets. Deal?

> I listen, Kevin. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I invite
> you to do the same.

> If you don't put your money where your mouth is Pim, you will look like
> a liar to the whole world.

> Put your money where your mouth is, Pim, or look like a cheap
> four-flusher to the whole world.

I am glad to see that you are ready to pursue the bets in your
hypothesized chronological order. First mine on the first protein and
when you succeed, if you still have any money left, then yours on the
viruses. Ready?

Joseph Mastropaolo