Re: Calling All Evolutionists To Get Rich Quick.

Brian D Harper (bharper@postbox.acs.ohio-state.edu)
Sun, 11 Oct 1998 22:31:22 -0400

At 06:30 PM 10/11/98 -0700, Joseph wrote:
>Pim wrote:
>> Poor Joseph, if he had evidence he should share it with us rather than
try to
>>muddle science with silly bets.
>>
>> So explain how science can support a game of cards if the likelyhood of the
>>individual hands is so small ?
>>
>> Another strawman bites the dust.
>
>Pim, hurry and put your money where your mouth is. You are looking like
>a four-flushing liar to the whole world.
>

Joseph, you are being silly. Do you really think we are such
fools?

I cannot speak for anyone else, but if what you say is true,
if the probability of forming a single protein by any evolutionary
means is indeed about 10^-75 then I would concede immediately
and reject evolution. Note that this is in spite of the fact
that you continue to neglect an important factor despite
repeated reminders. Hint: it is very unlikely that *I* will
win the lottery. It is not nearly so unlikely that *someone*
will win the lottery. i.e. one has to take into account the
number of trials.

But this matters very little in the present case. For example,
suppose that there are 10^10 planets with "suitable" conditions.
On each planet there is a "window of opportunity" of about
4 billion years. Even so, a reasonable chance of success at
getting one protein would require something like 10^40 trials
per second on each of the 10^10 planets for the entire
4 billion years.

But, as I said, I'm no fool and I'm not going to wager
$10,000 on a bet where the person I'm betting makes up
the odds out of thin air. So, here is my challenge to
you. Justify your number 10^-75 to within 10 orders of
magnitude and I'll concede to you that evolution is
impossible.

Put your math where your mouth is.

Brian Harper
Associate Professor
Applied Mechanics
The Ohio State University

"It appears to me that this author is asking
much less than what you are refusing to answer"
-- Galileo (as Simplicio in _The Dialogue_)