Re: Evolution's probability

Steven M. Smith (smsmith@helios.cr.usgs.gov)
Tue, 29 Sep 1998 10:06:50 -0400

Mon, 28 Sep 1998 10:44:46 -0700, Joseph Mastropaolo writes:
>Evolution is a still-born latter-day alchemism as likely as gold is an
>alloy. The probability of only one molecule of iso-1-cytochrome c by
>evolution is 2.3x10^-75. That is the same probabilty that gold is an
>alloy.

Joseph, The probability that gold is an alloy is almost exactly 1! The
idea that gold is always pure is a pseudo-factoid. Because of mankind's
enduring interest in gold, there is a huge amount of literature on its
purity. I will quote only one source:

"The purity of native gold, gold bullion, gold coin, etc. is expressed
in terms of fineness, which is commonly defined as the proportion of
pure gold in the sample in parts per thousand. Thus, native gold which
is 900 fine contains 90 per cent of the element gold. In some deposits
native gold is relatively pure, but more generally it contains some
silver, copper, and iron and traces to minor amounts of one or several
of the following elements: Li, Na, K, Be, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba, Zn, Cd, Hg, B,
Al, Ga, In, Sc, Si, Ge, Sn, Pb, Ti, Zr, As, Sb, Bi, V, Se, Te, Cr, Mo,
W, Mn, Co, Ni, Rh, Pd, Ir, Pt, U, Th and rare earths." [p. 17: Boyle,
R.W., 1979, The Geochemistry of Gold and its Deposits: Geological Survey
of Canada Bulletin 280, 584 p.]

Gold alloy trace element chemistry allows geochemists to "fingerprint"
the source and often determine some of the history of a piece of gold.

"The chemists and archaeologists tell us that the earliest gold objects
of all ancient civilizations were fashioned directly from native gold
(citations deleted). Later, around the middle of the first millennium
B.C., a method of purifying native gold came into existence, and at
about the same time the practice of alloying metals such as silver and
copper with gold and thus debasing the metal came into use." [Boyle
(1979; p. 1)]

As a rule I don't make bets. But if the probability of one molecule of
iso-1-cytochrome c being formed by evolution is the same as the
probability of gold being an alloy then I'll take that bet. It wouldn't
be gambling - just a timely investment in precious metals ;-)

>Belief in evolution requires a religious belief in factoids and miracles
>like alchemism.

Just as the investigation of alchemy led to significant advances in the
field of chemistry, the investigation of evolution has led to
significant advances in the field of biology. It is not critical that
every single "factoid" in an emerging science be correct today.
Vigorous research has repeatedly pulled the seed of truth (small t) from
the husk of errant "factoids." We need to be involved in looking for
this truth and not engaging in irrelevant armchair rhetoric.

Steve
[The opinions express here are my own
and are not to be attributed to my employer]

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