You wrote:
> Please stick with the bacterial flagellum.
OK.
> Start with C,H,O and N. What are the chances of arriving at
> one amino acid?
One. You said "the bacterial flagellum", not "a bacterial flagellum
spontaneously created in a mixture of graphite, hydrogen gas, oxygen
gas and nitrogen gas." Bacterial flagella are produced by _bacteria_
which also happen to make amino acids. If you've got bacteria, you've
got amino acids. You're not going to find too many bacterial flagella
in the absence of bacteria... unless they were shed at some point
(Which happens under some culturing conditions).
> Twenty different amino acids?
One again. Actually, many bacteria produce more than 20 amino acids.
> Then 150 of those 20 in the right sequence to form one of the needed
> proteins for the flagellum, then enough of them to form one of the
> structures, e.g. the filament. What is the probability so far?
One.
> Then put the right molecules together to form the rod, the hook, the
> L ring bushing, the P ring bushing, the stator studs, the stator C ring,
> the rotor S ring, the rotor M ring, the inner plasma membrane, the
> peptidoglycan layer and the outer membrane. What is the probability so
> far?
One.
> Does this come close to a billion to one or is it more like 10^90
> as Yockey estimated?
No, it's again one if you choose the right bacterium.
BTW - Brian Harper, who wrote a separate response, has actually read
a large chunk of what Yockey was written in this area. He has also
corresponded with him.
> I prefer L in shirts but I have no use for a dozen let alone a
>billion. If you can find financing, the world economy will have a
>prosperous 21st century.
I'm still one shirt up on any question yet raised by Behe that has a
discernable answer. That is: "whales have ancestors." And judging from
the sequence and functional similarities observed in many of these
irreducible systems, I'd suspect that these IC systems could have
ancestors as well.
> A billion to one is Dawkins' estimate for the spontaneous generation
> of a cell from the primordial soup (see The Blind Watchmaker).
> Scientists don't bet on a cause unless the odds are 20+ to one in
> their favor. What do you, Tim, call someone who bets when it is 10^90
> to one or even only 1 billion to one against him?
A sperm? (a blurb from one of Kurt Vonnegut's books comes to mind
just now... "My son, you are descended from a long line of microscopic
tadpoles, champions every one." I think it was in _Galapagos_)
What's abiogenesis of the first cell got to do with the evolution of the
bacterial flagellum from an existing cell? Better re-read Behe's book
because I think this is going off on another tangent. Remember, Behe
is advocating common descent in his book -- His argument has to do with
whether previously existing organisms can give rise to other, modified
forms by natural means. Thus we don't have to start with uncombined
elements when we talk about components such as flagella -- We should be
talking about already existing organisms. Now, in fairness I must note
that many of the people in the IC/ID area -- those actually working in the
area of formulating the argument or trying to buttress it -- & with whom
I've corresponded, straightforwardly acknowledge this distinction. Behe
certainly does to the greater extent.
Regards,
Tim Ikeda (tikeda@sprintmail.hormel.com) despam address before use