Please stick with the bacterial flagellum. Start with C,H,O and N.
What are the chances of arriving at one amino acid? Twenty different
amino acids? Then 150 of those 20 in the right sequence to form one of
the needed proteins for the flagellum, then enough of them to form one
of the structures, e.g. the filament. What is the probability so far?
Then put the right molecules together to form the rod, the hook, the
L ring bushing, the P ring bushing, the stator studs, the stator C ring,
the rotor S ring, the rotor M ring, the inner plasma membrane, the
peptidoglycan layer and the outer membrane. What is the probability so
far?
Does this come close to a billion to one or is it more like 10^90 as
Yockey estimated?
I prefer L in shirts but I have no use for a dozen let alone a
billion. If you can find financing, the world economy will have a
prosperous 21st century.
A billion to one is Dawkins' estimate for the spontaneous generation of
a cell from the primordial soup (see The Blind Watchmaker).
Scientists don't bet on a cause unless the odds are 20+ to one in their
favor. What do you, Tim, call someone who bets when it is 10^90 to one
or even only 1 billion to one against him?
Joseph Mastropaolo