In my other message, I mentioned John Casti's books. Here is a review
of SEARCH FOR CERTAINTY I published in the ASA's PERSPECTIVES
a few years ago. Highly recommended!
A book report on SFC.BRF
SEARCHING FOR CERTAINTY: WHAT SCIENTISTS CAN KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE, by John L.
Casti. New York, NY: William Morrow and Company, Inc., 1990. 496 pages, index.
Hardcover; $22.95.
John W. Burgeson,
Compuserve 73531,1501
John Casti, a faculty member at the Technical University of Vienna, Austria, has
followed his splendid book, PARADIGMS LOST, with one equally deserving of
serious study and enjoyment. My chief concern in writing this review is that I
will not be sufficiently persuasive to induce my readers to pick it up and share
with me in the enjoyment of science presented at its best.
Dr. Casti begins by discussing the differences between explanation and
prediction in science, and in non-science, as he deals with the three C's,
Correlations, Causes and Chance. He devotes most of the book, however, to
analyses of weather changes, climate predictions, physical changes in living
organisms, the stock market, the outbreak of war and, in a brilliant conclusion,
the true statements of arithmetic.
For people in a hurry, read just the summary, five short pages. There may be
some who will read no more. There may also be some people who can nibble just
one peanut at a baseball game!
Dr. Casti writes with both clarity and humor. Even the chapter headings ("Proof
or Consequences" introduces his chapter on "True" Arithmetic) and section
headings ("Looking for a Beta Way" is a topic in the chapter on stock prices)
are carefully chosen both to illuminate the topic and remind the reader that
science can be fun!
In discussing the problems, Dr. Casti rates "science" on each of them in two
ways, first, how well the problem can be explained; second, how well future
conditions within it can be predicted. Celestial mechanics is the measure of the
others, rating a grade of "A" on both counts. Mathematics, interestingly enough,
rates only a "B+" and "B." Quantum mechanics rates "D" in explanation, but "A"
in prediction. Evolutionary Biology, as one might expect, moves in the reverse
direction, rating B+ in explanation and "D" in prediction. At the low end of
the scale is Economics, rating a flat "D" in both categories. It is part of the
uniqueness of this book that the author is able to analyze these matters and
show, very convincingly, why these grades are to be expected, what they mean,
and what improvements are likely in the future.
Dr. Casti observes "... that it's in those areas of the natural sciences least
susceptible to human influence that we have the best 'programs' for prediction
and explanation. As we move away from hard physics and astronomy and into the
Jell-O-like realm of biology, our capabilities for prediction and explanation
begin to deteriorate. And by the time we reach the almost totally gaseous state
of economics and the other social sciences, there's far more 'social' than
'science' in our capacity to say what's next and why."
As in PARADIGMS LOST, Dr. Casti includes a "To Dig Deeper" section to conclude
the work. There are 55 pages of notes here, indicating that the author has done
his homework well!
This book review was published in PERSPECTIVES, the journal
of the American Scientific Affiliation, in 1992.
The American Scientific Affiliation, ASA, founded in 1941, is an
association of people who have made a commitment of themselves to both a
scientific description of the world and to Christianity. The present
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Membership is $45/year, which includes the quarterly journal,
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Information on the ASA, including a sample issue of PERSPECTIVES, is
available by writing to:
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