"So it takes about N = 1/p generations to have a large number of different
mutants running around. That's 10,000 generations of humans, or 200,000
years. Your estimate of 1.2 million years is a little too high for the
following reason. You assume it takes 10,000 generations 1/p to get the first
mutation in, and then another 10,000 generations to get the second one in,
etc.. But, in fact you have waited until a1/a0=1, i.e. 1/2 of the population
has suffered a mutation until you allow a second mutation to start"
I am very curious about what more you have to say. But the only problem I
have is that if I understand your equation here, you are calculating the
frequency of people with one mutation in the population. But only people
with the first mutation can get the second mutation in addition to the first
which may be necessary for the divergence of the gene. The portion of the
population without any mutation can not diverge further.
The problem is temporally linear. And the problem is not how rapidly can
a population have six 1 mutation alleles but how rapidly can a population have
59 multiple-mutation alleles. Since each mutation must be based on the
occurrence of a previous mutation, how long does this take?
But for the sake of argument, and for the sake of hearing more, your 200,000
years still is out of range of most views of when the genetic bottle neck of
the flood occurred or when the genetic bottle neck of Adam and Eve occurred.