clarification

Glenn.Morton@ORYX.COM
Mon 14 Aug 1995 06:49 CT

The 50% figure I cited in the last post should apply to the odds that any
given 1000-unit long segment of DNA would have 1 substitution. THe math is as
follows.

1 chance in 10,000,000 for any given position to have a mutation
1000 locations means that the odds of finding one of them in your 1000-unit
long region is 1000/10,000,000 = 1/10,000

Since in 100,000 years there are 5000 or so generations, then

5000/10000=.5

If you want to quibble about the generation length and make it 14 years, then
there are 7100 generations giving you the odds that any given 1000 base pair
gene would have 1 alteration is .71. Since creationists always talk about how
nearly all mutations are harmful, then if 99% of these are harmful, the odds
of having a useful alteration are .007 in your 1000 base pair gene.

Thus, the views that most christians take about the flood lead to a logical
contradiction and violation of the evidence. They must believe that the
allele formation only produces beneficial mutations while "evolutionary"
mutation only produces harmful mutation. They must also believe that it all
occurred at rates which are unobserved and unsupported by statistics.

The only two solutions are to move the flood much further back in time or
eliminate the flood altogether. If you want to explain the evidence, I see no
other alternatives. Does anyone else?

glenn