"A couple of years ago I modeled the entire National League season when
there were just two divisions. I started out with all the offensive and
defensive data for each team. But I didn't put in the results for a single
game--no information on who won, who lost. (I actually wanted to prove the
Cubs had really won their division, but that didn't work.) Then I ran off
season after season on my computer until the cumulative average wasn't
changing any more. Results: ten of the twelve teams were in the correct
positions for that year. The won-lost was only slightly wrong for one of
the others. The twelfth, the Dodgers, was significantly higher in my model
than they actually were.
I don't know what this proves, except to show I'm a better manager
than Tommy La Sorda."
I think it indicates you have darn good modeling instincts. If not, you
are extremely lucky. These are impressive results. I have a son-in-law,
Art, who is a big Cub fan, and he has given the infection to my daughter,
Sylvia. Perhaps your results indicate the basic goodness of Cub fans. :-)
Gordon Simons