[asa] Granularity of Climate Models

Considering relatively near in climate predictions for short periods of
time what is the likely smallest period of time and smallest area for
which the global warming models are likely to be accurate? Should they
be able to accurately predict climate for a season, three months away
and for areas the size of USofA states say like the size of Texas, or
only for a whole year and only for the whole globe? Sure such computer
runs are probably not being made but if they were what is their
granularity. Maybe global warming deniers should be challenged to make
their personal computers available for such runs to provide a near in
test for the accuracy of the models.

This year in the spring, Environment Canada predicted that the summer
would be hot and dry in the area where we live. Instead it has been
very cool and very wet. Usually in summer the grass is burnt a golden
color and the water is warm enough to swim in, neither of which is true
this year. Today is on the cool side as the high is forecast to be +18C
with rain yet again. This is more or less what most summer days have
been like this year, thus so far in the summer Environment Canada are
totally wrong. Arguing with none scientists for global warming is hard
after such near in inaccurate predictions of climate! People suggest
the farmers almanac is more accurate than the climate models. I know
other parts of the continent are having hot weather. Maybe the rest of
summer here will turn extremely hot and dry so the average climate will
turn out hot and dry, but I kind of doubt it.

Dave W (CSCA member)

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Received on Sun Jul 15 06:29:01 2007