Re: Harvard Crimson: Requiem for Environmentalism and Earth Day

On 4/25/06, Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> At 06:58 PM 4/25/2006, Rich Blinne wrote:
>
> Where Rush and I differ -- if we differ at all -- is* to what extent
> global warming is overstated. *
>
>
>
> @ Rush agrees with Steve Milloy regarding "to what extent" global warming
> is overstated. Click the link and get up to speed ... then maybe you won't
> *feel* so depressed:
>
> *The Real 'Inconvenient Truth' * April 21, 2006
> http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/
>
> *[[[* Mr. Milloy holds a B.A. in Natural Sciences from the Johns Hopkins
> University, a Master of Health Sciences in Biostatistics from the Johns
> Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health, a Juris Doctorate
> from the University of Baltimore, and a Master of Laws from the Georgetown
> University Law Center. BIO http://www.junkscience.com/Junkman.html *]]]
>
> *
> ~ Janice
>

If we consider the warming effect of the pre-Industrial Revolution
> atmospheric carbon dioxide (about 280 parts per million by volume or ppmv)
> as 1...
>

This is the correct level for CO2 before the industrial revolution and over
the last 650,000 years has not been exceeded (6 ice age cycles). What is the
current CO2 levels might you ask? 381 ppm. Acording to Dr. Malloy humans
contributed 10 ppm. Last year alone CO2 went up half that amount (5 ppm).
You might ask how do we know what the levels of CO2 are? Ice core
measurements. The CO2 is trapped in the layers of ice and temperature can be
measured by an oxygen isotope proxy. A key study to look at is here. This
study extended the data from 430000 years to 650000 years.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/310/5752/1313

There are two key findings here are that CO2 levels we have now are truly
unprecedented and that CO2 tracked the delta O18 temperature proxy levels.
If you don't believe me see the graph from the study here:

http://homepage.mac.com/blinne/sciv310i5752p1313FIG1.ppt

Tell me temperature doesn't track CO2 levels.

Here's what we know:

1. Global temperature tracked CO2 levels over the last six ice age periods
2. Up to the industrial revolution CO2 levels, did not exceed 280 ppm for
the last six ice age cycles
3. Our current level of CO2 is 37% higher (not 3.5% as Dr. Milloy implied)
than we have seen over the previous highest value over six ice age cycles
(650,000 years)

What we don't know is what the effect on temperature is going to be
particularly because we are now extrapolating with the unprecedented CO2
levels. Some models show that it can be as bad as 10-15 degrees C of warming
(versus the 0.5 degrees C we have already experienced). This is probably
wrong but do you want to bet your children and grandchildren on it?
Received on Wed Apr 26 00:45:27 2006