From: Kenneth Piers (Pier@calvin.edu)
Date: Mon Nov 10 2003 - 09:48:16 EST
The dream of replacing fossil fuel oil with oil from plants is very likely just
that - a dream. Two main problems. First of all if we farm plants to produce
oil it will require energy inputs - land preparation, sowing, fertilizing, weed
and pest control, harvesting, processing , shipping, distributing, etc, etc. to
produce the oil that we presumably will get from the plants. The question here,
as in all energy transfer systems, is: will we get more energy out than we need
to put in? Will there be a net energy gain? Since our agricultural system runs
on fossil fuel oil this question becomes very urgent. As far as I know no one
has suggested that we are anywhere near energy break-even in getting oil from
plants. One flawed experiment we are now already engaged in is production of
fuel ethanol from corn. The Pimental's have shown that in this process we use
more oil input energy than we get back in the ethanol that is produced.
The second major issue in the oil from plants project is this. Even if this
were wise from an energy standpoint, to replace any significant amounts of
fossil fuel oil with oil from plants would require that virtually the entire
agricultural acreage of the US now in food production be devoted to growing
plants for oil. Unfortunately, we can not eat oil directly - most humans prefer
normal food materials for sustenance.
As far as declining water is concerned, there is little cause for optimism
here either, especially if that optimism is based on the fact that the oceans
contain a lot of water. Once again, to render ocean water potable requires very
substantial energy inputs. If those energy inputs are primarily fossil fuel
inputs and if oil production goes into decline, producing fresh water from sea
water becomes an even more questionable project than it already is.
The prospect of having to replace our oil appetite with something else allows
of no easy solution. Similarly, the prospect of declining fresh water resources
also appears to have no easy solution - especially in a situation where global
human population continues to increase . At this point it is difficult to say
which problem is more urgent. Living in Michigan which is surrounded by
fresh-water lakes on three sides, allows me to focus a little more of my energy
on the decline-of-oil issue.
respectfully,
ken piers
>>> "Peter Brunt" <pbrunt@xtra.co.nz> 11/10/2003 12:57:44 AM >>>
Darryl
Declinign water and oil sure are relevant issues.
But I can't help returning to Calvin - of photosynthesis fame - who wrote
for Scientific American shortly after the first oil shock.
His view was that once oil reserve exploration costs crossed over the line
of growing plants for oil then it would be economically feasible to lay
aside vast areas of land for that purpose. He may well have been rubbished
since, but I am unaware of any negative comments regarding this idea. If I
remember correctly he even identified a particular _Euphorbia_ species as a
suitable plant for the role. Such plants are able to grow well in fairly
arid climates so currently unsuitable land could be brought into production.
Do you, Glen or any else know if further research has been condusted on
Calvin's ideas?
As to water shortages. There are tonnes in the oceans and surely as the
need to produce water of irrigation quality matches the costs of
desalination plantrs then the matter will be done. Sure the problem will be
shifting the water to the right place. But that too will be a matter of
econics, won't it!!?
Perhaps I am too optomistic!
I would like to hear your and others repsonse.
Peter Brunt
While we have discussed the relationship between declining oil supplies and
its relationship to us as Christians, I don't think we have discussed the
parallel problem of declining water supplies.
http://www-geology.ucdavis.edu/~GEL115/115CH18miningwater.html is chapter
15 of a set of lecture notes by Dr. Richard Cowen of the Univercity of
California at Davis. The course is (and the notes) are on the relationships
between natural resources and history. Very good reading for those who are
not familiar with those relationships.
Perhaps some of you would like to discuss this topic. Living as I do in the
middle of the Texas High Plains which is facing this very problem, but not
being a farmer, or a rancher, or a business owner in the area, I don't have
much to say except life is going to get tough, some will loose their jobs,
some their companies, but hopefully we are past the shooting stage of the
1800's range wars.
A few weeks ago I was with two other geologists and as we drove by miles of
land that was once irrigated but is now being dryland farmed or grazed, one
of them made the analogy that we were driving over a depleated resevoir
except that instead of being an old oil field (all three of us started in
the oil business but only one still is and he is, by his on statement
"semi-retired" at 53) it is an old water field. Some of you may recognize
the name - the Ogallala. It isn't depleated everywhere but those folks had
given up trying to irrigate from it and slowly the big ranches are being
sold off. I don't know more than a half dozen people that own land around
here but last year a 6000 acre ranch was sold, then one partner of a 4000
acre ranch sold his half, and now a third place is for sale. I don't know
its size but I would guess around 10,000 acres more or less. I sure can't
blame the farmers for selling their water rights given the fluctuation in
commodity prices and the vagaries of crop yield but it is raising the
temperature of some people's tempers and I think it won't be long before it
starts stressing the control on their behavior that their religion exerted
over the past decades when times were good and there was a general consensus
about what was and was not the right thing to do with the water under your
land.
Maybe reaching a consensus on the young earth/old earth argument isn't as
important as praying that we figure out a way to stay civil with our
neighbors. This problem is already spreading and unless the climate changes
a lot for the wetter I think it will continue to spread and cause economic
hardships across the country.
Darryl
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.4 : Mon Nov 10 2003 - 09:49:07 EST