Re: Thomas Bayes and Bayesian statistics

From: Inge Frette (inge.frette@geologica.no)
Date: Sat Aug 30 2003 - 07:38:04 EDT

  • Next message: George Murphy: "Re: Thomas Bayes and Bayesian statistics"

    Hei Steve,

    Swinburne recently edited a book called "Bayes's theorem"
    published by Oxford University Press in 2002

    It includes articles by prominent philosophers of science like
    Elliot Sober and John Earman.
    It also includes Bayes's original paper on the theorem which he
    presented to the Royal Society in 1763.
    There is also an article in the book that gives a historical
    introduction.
    You can check more at
    http://www.oup.co.uk/isbn/0-19-726267-8

    Regards Inge

    At 10:30 30.08.2003 +0100, Steve Bishop wrote:

    >Hi Iain,
    >
    >Many thanks for your comments - the link was particularly appreciated.
    > >From: "Iain Strachan"
    > >Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2003 20:49:53 +0100
    > >
    > >Steve Bishop:
    > >
    > >
    > > > Hi all,
    > > >
    > > > I have recently noticed how Swinburne and others have been using Bayes
    > > > theory to "prove" Christianity. Using Bayes' theorem [he] maintains
    > that the
    > > > resurrection of Jesus is 97% probable.
    > >
    > >I find this hard to believe.
    >
    >It's what Swinburne maintains!
    >
    >"Mr. [sic] Swinburne, a commanding figure with snow-white hair and
    >piercing blue eyes, proceeded to weigh evidence for and against the
    >Resurrection, assigning values to factors like the probability that there
    >is a God, the nature of Jesus' behavior during his lifetime and the
    >quality of witness testimony after his death. Then, while his audience
    >followed along on printed lecture notes, he plugged his numbers into a
    >dense thicket of letters and symbols—using a probability formula known as
    >Bayes's theorem—and did the math. "Given e and k, h is true if and only if
    >c is true," he said. "The probability of h given e and k is .97"
    >"In plain English, this means that, by Mr. Swinburne's calculations, the
    >probability of the Resurrection comes out to be a whopping 97 percent. "
    ><http://www.selfknowledge.org/resources/press/nyt_eakin.htm>http://www.selfknowledge.org/resources/press/nyt_eakin.htm
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >See also:
    >
    ><http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2003/004/17.13.html>http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2003/004/17.13.html
    >
    >
    >a review of Swinburne's Resurrection of God Incarnate (Clarendon Press,
    >Oxford, 2003).
    >
    >
    >Cheers,
    >Steve
    >
    >
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