RE: CNN on Oil

From: glenn morton (glenn.morton@btinternet.com)
Date: Tue Oct 03 2000 - 01:15:24 EDT

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    This is for Brent and his friends. Dicovery Magazine, Oct. 2000 is talking
    about what will change in the next 20 years. They say:

    "Consider the 'Contemporary Waves of Technological Change" graph. It
    indicates that computer capabilities and genetic medicine are likely to
    follow exponential growth curves that echo the major technological
    inflections preceding them, creating an array of high-performance products
    20 years from now. But early in this same period, as shown in the
    "Projected World wide Oil Production' graph, half the worl'ds known oil
    supply will have been used, and oil production will slide into permanent
    decline. This will not be an ersatz crisis like the oil embargo of the 1970s
    but a permanent change in the energy landscape, in which plenty of oil will
    still be available but not at today's prices. Shortly after the downturn in
    oil production and associated price increases, industrialized nations might
    face threatened economiies, not to mention the growing geopolitical power of
    countries holding the world's reserves."
            "Energy-efficient innovations will arise from this crisis and alter all our
    lives significantly. Indeed, this is an example of a technology that must be
    invented to maintain the standard of living we now enjoy." Eric Haseltine,
    "Twenty things that will be Obsolete in Twenty YEars,"p 85-86

    glenn

    see http://www.flash.net/~mortongr/dmd.htm
    for lots of creation/evolution information

    > -----Original Message-----
    > From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu]On
    > Behalf Of glenn morton
    > Sent: Saturday, September 30, 2000 9:28 PM
    > To: asa@calvin.edu
    > Subject: Re: CNN on Oil
    >
    >
    > Brent made the comment that his friends think he is a chiken
    > little. I am in
    > the oil industry, and I will tell you that I have had some
    > discussions with
    > people in the industry who don't believe this. However, what is really
    > interesting is that most of those people were very new in the industry in
    > the early 80's. They don't remember how little effect we had in
    > the US at
    > reversing the Hubbert decline even though we had at one time 4500 drilling
    > rigs drilling.
    >
    > If you want to convince them tell them to take a look at:
    >
    > http://www.cnie.org/nle/eng-3.html
    > http://payson.tulane.edu/mad/Seminars/porter.htm
    > http://www.oilcrisis.com
    > http://www.hubbertpeak.com/youngquist/geotimes.htm
    > http://www.hookele.com/mt/forum/messages/294.htm
    > http://www.hubbertpeak.com
    > http://hubbert.mines.edu
    >
    >
    > All of these sites are run by scientists, not enviro fruitcakes.
    >
    > glenn
    >
    > see http://www.flash.net/~mortongr/dmd.htm
    > for lots of creation/evolution information
    >
    >



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