For anyone who might wish to see the hubbert curve for world oil production, you can find it at:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/images/simple18.gif
A thing to note on this graph is that the high cost of oil in the early 80's may have done the world a big favor. From that time on, economies became much more energy efficient. This had the effect of driving down the cost of oil, but also prolonging the day of reckoning when the production of oil would begin to decline from the early 90's to this decade. Thus, this has given us an additional 10 years or so. The top of the hubbert curve represents the point at which half of the world oil reserves have been produced. A look at the rate of rise prior to the early 80s shows that the topping out would have been at least 10 years ago had this high price episode not occurred. People increased the insulation in buildings, drove smaller cars and in a thousand other ways reduced their need for oil. But as population has increased and other socieities become more needful of oil, the demand has risen again. In the future, as the price rises, more conservation will stretch things out !
a !
bit, but that won't stretch things out too far. Eventually we must replace this fuel with something else.
One can compare various scenarios at:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/curves.htm
Another graph at the same site shows when various countries will top out their production. Some of these big exporters will begin to decline relatively soon.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/images/cam17sm.gif
And countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Abu Dhabi, while being able to sustain their own production will not be likely to supply the world with all the oil they need for a variety of technical and political reasons. They will have a rising percentage of world oil. It might be best to be born a Saudi.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Sep 25 2000 - 16:51:15 EDT
