RE: End of Cheap Oil

From: Vandergraaf, Chuck (vandergraaft@aecl.ca)
Date: Sat Jul 22 2000 - 16:40:54 EDT

  • Next message: Wayne Shelton: "physics"

    Dan,

    Thanks. This is the sort of information that is needed to lift the fog that
    shrouds the discussions amongst environmentalists and energy providers. I
    don't have time right now to study the reply by Jon Rosales in detail, but
    will do so a bit later.

    Chuck Vandergraaf
    Pinawa, MB

    > ----------
    > From: Dan Eumurian[SMTP:cen09460@centurytel.net]
    > Reply To: hope4you@centurytel.net
    > Sent: Saturday July 22, 2000 12:52 PM
    > To: Vandergraaf, Chuck
    > Cc: asa@calvin.edu; hope4you@centurytel.net
    > Subject: Re: End of Cheap Oil
    >
    > Vandergraaf, Chuck wrote:
    > >
    > > The link that Dan supplied is, unfortunately, not the type of
    > information I
    > > would be looking for. Rather than supplying a list of links to
    > > environmental groups, what I would want to know, for alternatives, are
    > > answer to, at least, the following questions: 1),what is the TOTAL cost
    > to
    > > the environment of your proposed alternative and 2), what fraction of
    > the
    > > TOTAL required demand can be met by your proposed alternative.
    >
    > Chuck, Glenn and list,
    >
    > I picked a link, conveyed the question, and received this reply. Hope it
    > sheds some light.
    >
    > Dan Eumurian
    > hope4you@CenturyTel.net
    >
    > Subject: Re: Total costs of solar energy
    > Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2000 21:54:45 -0400 (EDT)
    > From: John Michael Byrne <jbbyrne@UDel.Edu>
    > To: hope4you@centurytel.net
    > CC: Jon R Rosales <jrosales@UDel.Edu>
    >
    > Dear Mr. Eumurian,
    >
    > Thank you for your inquiry. I would welcome the lyrics of "Use It Again,
    > Sam!"
    >
    > I have tried below to answer the questions posed by your colleague. I
    > have
    > also copied one of our doctoral students, Jon Rosales, who is currently
    > in
    > Minnesota. He can elaborate on my comments. Please let me know if you
    > find
    > that responses, as they often do, generate more questions. Regards, John
    > Byrne
    > -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    > John Byrne, Director Phone: (302) 831-8405
    > Center for
    > Energy & Environmental Policy FAX: (302) 831-3098
    > University of Delaware E-mail: jbbyrne@strauss.udel.edu
    > Newark, DE 19716-7301 USA Website: http://www.udel.edu/ceep
    > -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    >
    > On Tue, 18 Jul 2000, Dan Eumurian wrote:
    >
    > > Dear Dr. Byrne:
    > >
    > > I am a music teacher, piano dealer/tuner, singer-songwriter-publisher
    > > specializing in environmental songs among others,
    >
    > REPLY: I envy such a life. I played piano as a child and then forgot
    > --my
    > biggest regret.
    >
    > > and a member of the American Scientific Affiliation listserv. The ASA
    > > is comprised of Christians in the sciences, theology and philosophy. I
    > > hold an M.A. in theology.
    > >
    > > One of our ASA list members recently posed a series of questions on
    > > energy costs. I found your website through a link from the website of
    > > Joyce Johnson Rouse, an environmental singer and friend of mine. Would
    > > you be so kind as to respond as you see fit to these questions, or to
    > > steer me toward sources which might address them? I apologize for the
    > > man's skeptical attitude.
    >
    > REPLY: No apology needed. As you well know, questioning is how we learn!
    > >
    > > "What are the costs, financial and environmental, of producing the
    >
    > > photovoltaic panels (including the energy required in production
    > of
    > > the silicon cells, handling and disposing of the wastes generated
    > in
    > > the production of the panels),
    >
    > REPLY: By conventional measures of cost, PV panels cost about $5 per
    > peak
    > Watt of electricity supplied. Throughout most of the US, this would be
    > equivalent to $0.20 per kWh, compared to dirty coal plants which can
    > produce electricity at $0.05 per kWh ... and warm the planet. As long as
    > the latter is not a cost that we address (and currently we don't), dirty
    > coal plants are more "economical."
    >
    > > how much real estate is required per MW generated,
    >
    > REPLY: I think that your colleague is getting at the fact that solar
    > light
    > is diffuse and needs a larger area to collect its energy than dirty
    > coal,
    > for example. But the real estate question has a couple of problems. If
    > you
    > consider the geology of fossil energy, then real estate must become a
    > three-dimensional question. In which case, PV -- a 2-dimensional energy
    > collector -- will require a lot less real estate than dirty coal. And if
    > you consider that dirty coal degrades the "real estate," while PV does
    > not
    > (at least while it collects energy), you're probably more interested in
    > PV
    > than dirty coal from a "real estate cost" standpoint. But the bigger
    > problem is that sensible use of PV (see below) would use as its "real
    > estate" rooftops and wall surfaces, i.e., areas that already are in use.
    > Thus, it should have litle in the way of real estate requirements.
    >
    >
    > > what is the upkeep (how do you keep bird poop, dust and debris from the
    > > surfaces of the solar panels and what are the risks in doing so, e.g.,
    > > workers falling off the panels and being injured or killed),
    >
    > REPLY: Yes, like car windshields and home and office windows, you have
    > to
    > wash panels once or twice a year. I don't know how many workers fall off
    > panels per year; I also don't know how many workers are injured while
    > washing windshields and windows -- but PV maintenance is unlikely to add
    > considerably to the statistic, since sensible use of the technology
    > would
    > mean co-maintenance of windows/windshields and panels.
    >
    > > what is the expected life of the panels,
    >
    > REPLY: Panels are now rated to last 25 years. Field experience suggests
    > that this is about right.
    >
    > > how does one recycle
    > > them or dispose of them (and what is the environmental impact), etc.
    > >
    > REPLY: Actually, there is already a vibrant recycling market. Because PV
    > panels contain valuable processed silicon, companies sell the old panels
    > to others who extract the silicon from them. One company in Delaware,
    > AstroPower, actually makes panels from recycled cells.
    >
    > > Once I have these data, I'd want to know how much of the demand for
    > > electricity would be supplied by these panels, whether they could be
    > > used in urban areas or only in rural settings,
    >
    > REPLY: Your colleague asks excellent questions here. Indeed, these are
    > the
    > core issues. Let me begin with urban energy demand. By shifting the bulk
    > of the costs of energy use to the natural environment and to future
    > generations of humans and other species, the industrial era brought
    > about
    > its ally -- the cheap energy era. In this era, we demand a lot of
    > energy.
    > Indeed, the carbon released from energy combustion is now over 7 billion
    > tons per year ... and rising. Please note that currently only 40% of the
    > world's population -- the urban part -- have access to "reliable"
    > commercial (i.e., you have to pay for it) energy services. As that
    > number
    > grows, we'll be releasing 2-3 times as much carbon as now. How much is 7
    > billion tons? More than the tonnage of all steels and other major metals
    > produced worldwide per year. It also is enough to change the chemistry
    > of the atmosphere. I don't know about you, but when I was growing up I
    > couldn't imagine that human beings could change the sky. So, we have an
    > enormous demand for energy in urban areas, measured not only by its
    > quantitative amount, but by its environmentally disruptive power.
    >
    > PV cannot supply that enormous energy demand. Nor should it.
    >
    > If PV is to make a difference -- ecologically, socially, technologically
    > -- it should offer an alternative to the enormous energy demand of the
    > cheap energy/industrial era. What is that alternative? To begin, PV
    > should
    > be used to cut energy demand in urban societies by collecting solar
    > energy
    > at the peak of energy demand -- hot summer days ... the same time when
    > solar energy is at its greatest availability. In this role, PV reduces
    > energy demand and the scale of energy systems. Instead of using
    > conventioanl energy only during these peak periods, we would use PV to
    > run
    > the meter backward by supplying converted solar energy back into the
    > grid.
    > Note that our cheap energy era has resulted in energy demand during peak
    > months that is almost twice as high as the average. The result is that
    > we
    > build our power plants to meet these peaks ... and 30-40% of the
    > capacity
    > of these plants (MW) sits idle, unused, for 80% of the year. With PV
    > deployed on rooftops of urban buildings (what is called the solar
    > shingle), we can cut our extravagant energy demand. Also, since these
    > very
    > large plants lose about 20% of their energy in transmission and
    > distribution, rooftop PV allows us to reduce the transmission and
    > distribution capacity of our energy systems. And we can then move away
    > from large-scale plants that are hopelessly beyond democratic control.
    > Currently, our cheap energy system requires experts to run it for us and
    > they get very confused, even so! That's why we experience loss of power
    > periodically; and why, probably for the computer you are using, you have
    > purchased an uninterruptible power supply (a fancy way of saying
    > batteries
    > for energy when the lights and computers go out). When you use rooftop
    > PV
    > (which comes with battery storage to smooth out its supply) to cut peak
    > demand and provide emergency power services, its economics are quite
    > good.
    > Indeed, we have published a stream of papers over the last 5 years
    > showing
    > that the savings in energy bills and the cancelled need to buy emergency
    > power equipment equals the cost of PV at today's prices. That is, PV's
    > economic benefits, measured in the (inaccurate) unit of cheap energy
    > prices, pay for its current costs (capital and maintenance).
    >
    > This e-mail is getting VERY LONG, so I won't take you through how
    > essentially the same function can be served by PV in urban transport.
    >
    > For rural needs, the role of PV is different. Please note that most
    > people
    > in the world do not have reliable access to electricity. Living in rural
    > areas, families have no light at night except that provided by candles
    > or
    > kerosene lamps; no refrigeration for medicines; water pumps that require
    > great human and animal exertion to work. We have worked for 7 years on
    > the
    > high plain of Inner Mongolia in China to learn about the needs of rural
    > people. It's been an amazing lesson. Unlike urbanites, rural people do
    > not
    > live life by the motto of more is better. Balancing demand with nature's
    > supply is a fundamental idea applied in every aspect of life. Working
    > with
    > rural communities in one of the most beautiful parts of our planet, we
    > have tried to design very small wind-PV systems that can provide about
    > 30
    > kWh per month. This would mean lighting at night for community education
    > -- people are busy during the day with farm and animal chores;
    > refrigerated medicines so that animals live -- and women and children
    > eat
    > (when meat is scarce, children and women are often the last to eat in
    > the
    > countryside); improved water pumping for better yielding fields,
    > healthier
    > animals and healthier people. For comparison, urbanites use about 2,000
    > kWh for non-transport energy. Demand is amply served in the rural areas
    > by
    > very modest wind and PV systems. Indeed, you need only a 400 W wind
    > turbine and 50 W of PV (not much real estate -- a few square feet!) to
    > change lives and livelihoods in Inner Mongolia. And cost? If you compare
    > the cost of running a small diesel generator to serve rural needs -- and
    > include the expenses of transporting the fuel and travelling back and
    > forth to rural towns to get parts and to have maintenance work done on
    > these small generators -- the wind-PV system we learned how to design
    > from
    > rural families costs about one-half that of a diesel generator per kWh.
    >
    >
    > > and under what weather and climatic conditions they can be used. For
    > example, in > Yellowknife, NWT, or Fairbanks, AK, solar panels are not
    > much help in the winter!
    > > Even along the west coast of BC, there are often long periods of rain.
    >
    > REPLY: The wonderful thing about renewable energy is that it is
    > available
    > EVERYWHERE. While solar energy may not be abundant in Yellowknife, wind
    > (harvested by very small wind machines -- you can buy the 400 W machines
    > from factories in China -- they have over 60,000 sold across western
    > China; no US or Canadian company makes such small wind machines) is
    > abundant; and the region has geothermal, small hydro (not the big stuff
    > that destroy rivers and communities), and a host of other options. Of
    > course, I presume that we are not trying to build a New York City in
    > Yellowknife -- hopefully, we can leave some real estate for other
    > species.
    >
    > >
    > > The same calculations need to be done for wind power, biomass,
    > etc.
    > > Only then can we determine if these alternatives are economically and
    > > environmentally viable. Yes, I know that environmentalists will point
    > > at government incentives to oil companies and the displacement of
    > > aboriginals due to hydro-related flooding, but these costs can be
    > > quantified. I also am aware that we can do a lot by using passive
    > > solar heating, increase insulation, and plant trees to decrease a
    > dependence
    > > on air conditioning. However, even the cost of increased insulation
    > needs
    > > to be factored into the equation and the costs and risks of the disposal
    > > or recycling of insulation material must be taken into consideration."
    >
    > REPLY: Quite true. We should also factor in the costs of a warmer
    > planet,
    > a less biodiverse planet, and a less democratic and less equitable
    > planet
    > if we leave things as they are.
    > >
    > > This e-mail is already long, so I will simply offer to send you the
    > > lyrics to my recycling song "Use It Again, Sam," from my cassette
    > > "Challenges: We Need Each Other," at no cost or obligation, if you might
    > > be interested. Thank you in advance for your kind consideration.
    > >
    > > Sincerely,
    > >
    > > Dan Eumurian
    > > 1634 Barlow St.
    > > La Crosse, WI 54601
    > > (608) 788-8637
    > > hope4you@CenturyTel.net
    >



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