Someone told me once that we've had a 10-year supply of oil available for the
last 100 years.
Your comment about oil-shale requiring a barrel of oil per barrel of oil
retrieved is relevant, but
as the price of oil rises, previously uneconomical oil retrieval becomes
feasible. I can't claim to
be an expert (certainly not to you!), but I'd guess the econonmics of it will
drag out the decline
longer than you predict.
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