Re: End of Cheap oil

From: Dawsonzhu@aol.com
Date: Sun Jul 16 2000 - 12:26:00 EDT

  • Next message: Vandergraaf, Chuck: "RE: End of Cheap oil"

    Joel W. Cannon wrote:

    << First, fusion reactors (as opposed to reactions) do produce
     significant radioactive contamination through activation. The very
     high energy neutrons (14 Mev) present a challenge to the person trying
     to convert the energy of a neutral particle into electricity, and to
     find shielding that will stop the neutrons and not fall apart. This
     shielding whatever it is will be highly radioactive after it is
     finished. The half life of the shielding radioactivity will be less
     than that of plutonium but still significant (I believe we are talking
     hundreds of years). >>

    Thanks for the information, .

    If fusion yeilds waste products that only have a half life of a few hundred
    years,
    that is not bad at all! The main issue with
    fission reactors is that the waste products have to be stored for hundreds
    of thousands of years. That's approaching geologic time scales. There are
    no truly "safe" places to put the waste. It may not occur to some people
    on the list, but the Grand Canyon had a very different climate 10000
    years ago (considerably more rain). It is not simple to estimate what the
    climatic conditions will be at a storage area 100000 year from now. It is
    perhaps reasonable to presume that large scale geologic upheavals will
    not occur in that time frame, but building a valt to withstand all
    foreseeable
    problems is a non-trivial matter.

    Matters are compounded because most of us I expect, would not like
    to leave a massive problem to a future generation due to wanton selfish
    lack of foresight, or even complete and utter ignorance (although the
    latter is a more forgivable error).

    Hence, if your figures are really correct, then I would say that fusion
    still has a lot going for it --- a "few hundred years" would be quite
    managable as a waste problem, 100000 years is much less so.

    The bigger problem, as Glenn said in the first post, and in a follow up
    is that we don't have the technology now, and we need it *now* to have
    something fully functioning in the near future --- and to make a more
    effective evaluation of the technology. We know the breaks of nuclear
    power, but everything related to fusion is a question mark.

    <<
    Is this just a social problem or a public policy problem? If we throw
    more money at it, could we make it work? I think not. The crux of the
    problem is that you are trying to contain very dynamic electrically
    charged particles (a plasma) electromagnetically (laser induced fusion
    is somewhat different). In mathematical or physics terms, it is a
    tremendous non-linear problem. Non-linear problems are extremely
    difficult to solve or to predict. This skepticism has, in part, been
    picked up from people who were working in the field.
    >>

    Please don't read too much into this or infer some
    insinuation about yourself in this, but skepticism to me
    is an arm chair position. People bring their life's work
    to me, and I judge it over tea and crumpets. Perhaps it is
    good for dreamers to be shot down particularly when they
    lose touch with reality. It is also good to be skeptical
    in deciding how to prioritize funding. However, there is
    a faith that comes with every attempt one makes in their
    chosen toil on this planet, and I think it is important to
    suspend at least some level of judgement when people in
    their toil are at least showing signs of understanding
    the limitations of their dreams.

    Perhaps you are right in your skepticism. The fact that
    they have worked so long on it without success definitely
    shows that it is a difficult problem. I also have a
    rudimentary enough knowledge of physics to appreciate
    the problems with trying to contain a plasma.

    Another approach is perhaps to transmutate the waste, but
    that has only led to limited success.

    In the end, I think science is about dreams and discovery.
    I still have faith that the Lord provides because God as
    a gracious and loving God, and that in part is why I
    always sign off with

    By Grace and Grace alone do we proceed,
    Wayne



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