Glenn,
In response to your statement about oil production, I commented that "If, as
they say, the oil production will peak at 30 billion barrels of oil (bbo),
extending the peak by one year will, obviously, require that you and your
fellow oil people, find an extra 30 bbo," you replied "Or conversely the
world use 30 bbo less."
If we're talking about consumption, yes; otherwise using less is not going
to extend the production. ;-) Minor point.
> First, I don't think Price figured on the Chinese economic boom, although
> when I worked China back in 1994 one could clearly see it coming. If they
> were to start using oil and gas at the rate we in the US do, the end of
> the
> oil age would be much sooner.
>
I was in Beijing in 1991 and watched the throngs going to work from my hotel
room on the fifth floor. I did a rough mental calculation: what if all the
people on the buses took to bikes, the people on bikes graduated up to
motorbikes (like in Taipei) and the people on motorbikes bought cars. The
roads couldn't hold that volume of traffic, let alone the impact on our
resources.
> As to a die-off, you are correct that that would slow the depletion of oil
> and gas. It won't prevent it from ending. And several of the authorities
> believe that civilization as we know it will end within that 50 year
> period
> as we run out of oil. They expect a die-off from the lack of energy. As
> you pointed out to Wendee, the electrical solution she eagerly awaits
> won't
> happen because a very large chunk of our electrical power today is fueled
> by petroleum. No petroleum, very much less energy. Without enough
> electricity, news will travelly very slowly as it did in the last century
> which will allow political leaders once again to control the flow of
> information. Dictatorships will return without the electricity to run the
> internet.
I agree that no petroleum will mean much less energy. Not so sure about the
effect on the movement of information. Think of the cell phone
"revolution." With satellites (and one would imagine that satellites (and
military hardware) would have priority on fossil fuels), hard wiring
telephones is becoming unnecessary. Think how much that will save in energy
and natural resources, from copper in the wiring to wood for the telephone
poles. Even when switching from copper to fiber optics, we will lower the
demand for copper (but making the glass for the optical fibers ain't cheap).
> But in the long run, where will our electricity come from once oil and are
> depleted? Coal? Our cities will look like Beijing with a thick layer of
> coal smoke haze hanging overhead. It takes energy to scrub all those
> noxious chemicals out of smokestacks.
You may have commented before you saw me "wax poetic" about nuclear power
later on in my comments. When used properly, nuclear power will see us many
centuries into the future using natural uranium in heavy water reactors
(CANDU), enriched uranium in PWRs and BWRs, and MOX fuel in breeder
reactors.
Here's a thought for you (and others): if they scrub "all those noxious
chemicals out of smokestacks," where do they put those chemicals? BTW,
those chemicals include such neat elements as Hg, Cd, U, Pb, As.
Your quote from the paper by Pimentel et al. says it all. Should be
required reading. Similar calculations have been for solar heating.
> You are probably correct. I would ride a bus to work if I could but the
> bus
> that leaves from the Woodlands goes downtown, passing the place I work.
> Unless I want to jump out at 70 mph on a busy highway, I can't ride the
> bus
> effectively.
That's what you (not you, Glenn) get when you build cities on the strength
of cheap gasoline! Compare, for example, Los Angeles with Paris.
> Note that Germany has just decided to phase out their nuclear power
> >reactors at the end of their life, if not sooner. Nothing has been
> >mentioned how Germany will generate the energy afterwards and nobody
> seems
> >to want to ask the question.
>
> I guess they will freeze in the dark.
My guess is that the Germans will buy their electricity from France.
Electrons don't care how they are generated and they don't come with labels
stating their origin. ;-) My other guess is that the poor will be the
first to freeze in the dark.
> >We already see changes in energy use: cars use a lot less iron than in
> the
> >past and some car manufacturers (BMW?) are starting to use recyclable
> >plastic components.
>
>
> Uh... plastics come from oil. THat won't be a viable future option. BAck
> to
> the heavy metal--music or autos. Heavy metal music can make one forget
> that
> we will need heavy metal for our cars. (
Yes, I know that plastics come from oil and I hesitated to write that
sentence. Question is, what are the energy requirements for digging up iron
ore, shipping it, refining it, and turning it into a fender or using
organics (either from oil, natural gas, or biomass) to do the same thing. I
don't have the answer but these calculations need to be done.
> For those who don't know, aluminum also requires lots of energy to refine
> as does iron. A fuel crisis will restrict these industries as well.
Yes, aluminum requires large amounts of energy. However, in Canada, most,
if not all, aluminum smelters are located in areas close to hydroelectric
dams (Kitimat, BC and Lac St. Jean region, Quebec). So, don't feel guilty
about that can of beer, just make sure you recycle it. ;-)
> >We can do a lot more recycling. We can do with less.
> >
> >I don't think that we need to look into the future with pessimism. The
> >handwriting is on the wall, though, and you've highlighted some of the
> >sentences. The changes will be painful and, as usual, affect the poor
> and
> >disenfranchised most. As Christians, we have the opportunity to show
> God's
> >grace in all of this and help to minimize the effects of these changes.
>
> Agreed. I have already given up my half-acre house and live in a small
> townhome here in Houston. That alone saved a bunch of money in AC bills.
Glenn, when you get to Scotland, you won't even need AC! ;-)
Chuck
> Foundation, Fall and Flood
> Adam, Apes and Anthropology
> http://www.flash.net/~mortongr/dmd.htm
>
> Lots of information on creation/evolution
>
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