Massie wrote:
>
> jeff witters wrote:
> >
> > On Wed, 12 Jan 2000 Massie wrote:
> >
> > >No I am not talking about Hal Lindsey and you know it and
> >
> > >Lets stay to the issue
> >
> > Yeesh! Sorry, I'll keep my jokes to myself. It's good to see
> > you're not a fan of his either. Now that I'm sitting up good
> > and straight...
> >
> > >What the e word does not do is predict the future in terms of
> > >organism invention (not small modifications, but invention).
> > >What I clearly referred to would be the predictive power of
> > >evolutionary (meaning invention) theory to predict the next
> > >big organism.
> >
> > I'm going to get my eyes checked next week, but still, for the
> > record, all you said was predictive power. But now it's
> > clarified, thank you.
> >
> > Suppose you tell me you have the now rare skills to build a
> > car by hand. I say, "Wow! That's great, go ahead and build
> > one. I'd like to see it." So you start chugging away and
> > the next day I show up at your shop. "Well, where's your
> > car?" "This sort of this takes a long time," you explain.
> > To which I reply, "I'm not talking about pieces! I wanted
> > an entire automobile, and you have a couple of pieces that
> > anybody could put together," and I stomp off in a huff
> > muttering about frauds.
> >
> > So you want the next big organism? OK, Thu. 24 Aug, 2000
> > about 50 km due north of the confluence of the Rio Negro
> > and the Amazon. (sorry, another ha ha)
> >
> > Back to the issue. Of course e predicts speciation, but
> > given that what could be called serious biology has been
> > around for less than tens of decades, do you know what
> > you're asking for? I say not. You're slapping a straw
> > man around with red herrings. On the time scale we are
> > dealing with, we cannot predict and then CONFIRM a bona
> > fide speciation in the future. Since when has turning
> > to the past (fossil record, extant species assemblages)
> > been off limits for predictions for such theories? Do
> > you mean to tell me that predictions regarding crusty
> > starlight from across the universe are bogus because it
> > is from the past? Blowing off evolution is really fairly
> > easy when we declare the past off limits -- the past is
> > all we have to demonstrate what you want.
> >
> > Grace and peace be with you. Jeff
> *************
>
> So you admit the lack of predictive power meaning the ability to
> forecast the next big organism.
>
> But there is still this business of the elasticity in the e word. I did
> not and do not have concern about speciation. Some claim it has even
> been observed, meaning the development of non-breeding populations.
>
> Lets ask you something a little simpler. The E word people claim that
> they cannot predict and then measure because of the time scale. So,
> fine, how about explanatory power.
>
> Its not speciation. What I want explained is inventive power. That is,
> where did these incredible organs such as the eye come from and how come
> such dramatic animal changes occurred in such short times ( if we are to
> believe JS Gould.) That is what is the key point to explain and I look
> forward to your answer.
>
> Incidently, the book I was referring to about biology is Biiology by
> Campbell, Reece, and Mitchell. You will be surprised to find a chapter
> featuring our good friend Dawkins.
>
> Bert M.
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